Venezia v Inter: Preview, predicted line-ups & Serie A tips

Venezia have gone through the first two months of the Serie A season with one win in eight, and that single result came against Napoli on 17 October. Eight days later they lost 1-0 at Genoa, which leaves them bottom of the table with three points. Inter arrive from the opposite end of the spectrum. They beat Fiorentina 2-1 at the weekend to stay unbeaten in the league, and this is their first midweek round of the campaign. The hosts are in charge of a side whose goal difference is minus 11, while Davide Nicola's name sits on the Venezia team sheet as head coach. Inter's Cristian Chivu has a squad that has scored in every league game.

Venezia's problem is at the back. They have conceded 17 goals in eight league games, an average of 2.1 per match, and 5 of those 17 arrived between the 16th and 30th minute. Their record of 6 goals scored is the joint lowest in the division on the supplied standings, and they have failed to score in four of their eight games.

There is one mitigating figure. Venezia's recent-form data shows 54.3% average possession and 14.6 shots per game, which indicates they are not being overrun in every match. However, only 4.4 of those shots per game are on target, and the finishing has not matched the volume.

Inter sit second on 22 points from eight games, three behind Lazio, who have played nine. They have won seven and drawn one, scoring 23 and conceding 10. The home record is the more eye-catching, with five wins from five and 17 goals scored at 3.4 per game. Away from San Siro they have won two and drawn one from three, scoring six, so their goalscoring has been less prolific on the road. Chivu's side still averaged 62.8% possession and 23.1 shots per game across their last eight fixtures, with 7.75 of those shots on target. A midweek trip to the bottom club is the sort of fixture a title challenger is expected to win, and the Champions League places are the immediate target.

The form data shows Venezia with one win, no draws and seven defeats from their last eight league games, with six goals scored and 17 conceded. Inter have seven wins, one draw and no defeats, with 23 scored and 10 conceded. The gap in expected goals reflects that picture: Inter average 2.9 for and 1.05 against, while Venezia sit on 1.58 for and 2.08 against. Venezia's xG for is higher than their 0.75 goals per game, so some improvement in finishing is plausible. However, the Napoli win aside, they have not shown the defensive structure to make that matter against a side averaging 2.88 goals per game.

Venezia are 20th on 3 points from 8 games with a goal difference of minus 11. Udinese, Fiorentina and Parma are all on 4 points, so one result could lift them out of last place. Genoa in 16th have 7, which leaves four points between Venezia and safety. Inter are second on 22 points from 8, three behind Lazio on 25 from nine games, and they are two points clear of Roma in third on 21 from nine. Como, in fourth, are on 20 from nine.

A win would put Inter within a point of Lazio before the leaders' next fixture and give them a game in hand. A defeat would be a significant setback for a Venezia side already four points off safety, with the early-season gap beginning to widen.

Inter have won all five of the last five meetings between the sides, with no draws and no Venezia wins. Those games have averaged 2.6 goals, with both teams scoring in 40% and over 2.5 goals in 40%. The most recent was a 5-1 Inter win in the Coppa Italia at San Siro on 3 December 2025. The last Serie A meeting at the Penzo was a 1-0 Inter win on 12 January 2025.

The pattern in league games has been tight scorelines, with three of the five meetings decided by a single goal, but the Coppa Italia result showed what happens when Inter attack freely. Current form points to a bigger margin than 1-0, since Inter's average of 2.88 goals per game is well above the 2.6 head-to-head figure. The 40% BTTS rate sits below the 3/1 tilt the market gives, but Venezia's 2.1 conceded per game suggests an Inter goal tally of three is realistic, while Venezia have scored in only four of eight league games.

The widest gap is in shot quality and volume. Inter average 23.1 shots and 7.75 on target per game across their last eight, compared with 14.6 and 4.4 for Venezia. That is a difference of more than three shots on target a game, and it is reflected in the expected goals gap of 2.9 to 1.58.

The defensive numbers tell a similar story. Inter's expected goals against is 1.05 per game against 2.08 for Venezia, and Inter have kept two clean sheets to Venezia's one. Corners favour the visitors too, at 5.75 won per game against Venezia's 4.5, which suggests set-piece pressure could add to the openings from open play.

Kick-off at the Stadio Pierluigi Penzo is at 5.30pm GMT on Wednesday 28 October, which is 6.30pm local time in Italy. DAZN renewed its Serie A rights for the UK and Ireland for 2026-27, with seven matches per round shown exclusively on its platform. This fixture is expected to be on DAZN, though a specific channel for this game has not been confirmed.

The strongest angle is the goals market, where Inter's attack meets a defence that has conceded 2.1 per game. Inter at 1/3 is short, but the data supports it, and the over 2.5 goals price is the same. The bet builder below combines the result with a goalscorer and the goals line, which removes the league's most obvious scoring option for Inter.