Nottingham Forest v Manchester City: Preview, predicted line-ups & Semenyo injury update

Nottingham Forest have played 405 minutes of home football this season without a goal, and Oliver Glasner is running out of ways to explain it.

The Austrian was extremely irate after last Saturday's 2-0 defeat at Brentford and has promised changes. His side have won only one of their opening nine league games and sit 19th.

Manchester City arrive in the East Midlands for the Saturday evening kick-off having relinquished top spot after a 1-0 home defeat to Brighton. A visit to the Premier League's lowest scorers at home is the obvious cure.

Forest's numbers make grim reading. They have taken six points from nine games, with one win, three draws and five defeats. They have scored six goals in total, all of them away from home, and have failed to score in five of their nine matches.

The only mild consolation is their expected goals figure. Over their games they average 1.42 xG for against 0.67 actual goals per game, which suggests some bad finishing luck. It does not suggest a side about to explode, because the chances being created are not of the quality to beat a City defence that has kept three clean sheets.

Glasner has used a 3-4-2-1 in all nine league games. Liam Delap has failed to score in his last five outings, so the pressure on the front line is plain.

City have lost two in a row, 2-1 at Aston Villa and 1-0 at home to Brighton, after winning seven straight. Maresca's side sit second on 21 points, three behind Arsenal.

They have scored 20 goals in nine games and average 64.1% possession. The defence has been less secure than the attack, conceding 10, including seven at the Etihad. Away from home they have conceded only three in four.

This is a side that have not lost three consecutive Premier League matches since March 2016.

Across their last nine, Forest have won one, drawn three and lost five, scoring 0.67 goals a game and conceding 1.33. City have won seven and lost two, scoring 2.22 and conceding 1.11. The recent run flatters neither side in the same way. City's two defeats are the latest results and both came to teams in the top ten, while Forest's single win came at Aston Villa on 12 September. City's xG for of 1.99 against Forest's xG against of 0.93 still points to City creating more than Forest allow, even on a bad week.

City are second on 21 points from nine games, three behind Arsenal and two clear of third-placed Brighton. A win keeps them in touch with the leaders before the international break, while a third straight defeat would open the door for Brighton and Chelsea (16 points) behind them.

Forest are 19th on six points from nine, one behind Crystal Palace and one ahead of bottom club Sunderland. They are three points from the nearest team outside the bottom three, Manchester United on seven, no wait, Palace are the 18th placed side on seven, so safety above them is Manchester United on seven too. A seventh league defeat would leave them deeply anchored in the relegation zone with the break to stew over it.

The last 10 meetings in the data cover nine games. City have six wins, Forest one and two have been drawn. The average is 2.78 goals per meeting, with both teams scoring in 33% (three games) and over 2.5 goals in 44% (four games). The most recent was a 2-2 draw at the Etihad on 4 March 2026. The last visit to the City Ground ended in a 2-1 City win on 27 December 2025.

The pattern is not one for goals galore. Both teams to score has landed in only three of nine, and Forest have not scored this season at home. That backs a result where City win with Forest held to a clean sheet or a single consolation. The Forest win in the sequence came on 8 March 2025 (1-0), a long way from this side's current state.

Possession is the biggest gap. City average 64.1% of the ball in their recent games and Forest 47.2%. Forest's route to goals therefore runs through counter-attacks, and they have had few of those that end in shots on target, averaging 3.44 a game against City's 5.33.

The second gap is finishing. Forest's 6 goals from 1.42 xG per game tells of wasted chances. City's 20 goals from 1.99 xG per game tells of an attack that converts. Add set pieces, with City taking 5.78 corners a game to Forest's 4.11, and the pressure is likely to be one-way.

Forest are expected to keep their 3-4-2-1 and Glasner has promised changes after the Brentford defeat. Delap is expected to lead the line again. City should line up in a 4-2-3-1 as against Brighton.

Nottingham Forest: Sels; Jair, Milenković, Murillo; Aina, McAtee, Schlager, Williams; Gibbs-White, Ndoye; Delap

Manchester City: Donnarumma; Nunes, Khusanov, Dias, Gvardiol; Anderson, Bouaddi; Ndiaye, Fernández, Doku; Haaland

Nottingham Forest v Manchester City kicks off at 17:30 GMT on Saturday 7 November at City Ground. It is live on Sky Sports.

The clearest angle is Forest's goalless home record. Four home games without a goal against a City side who have kept clean sheets in two of four away games makes the No on both teams to score a strong value. Haaland carries the goals leg, and the result sits underneath both.