AS Roma v Sassuolo: Preview, predicted line-ups & team news

Roma have not lost a Serie A match this season, and their last two results were a 4-2 win over Cagliari at home and a 5-2 win at Udinese on 31 October. That is nine goals in two games, which pushes their season total to 28 from ten matches. Sassuolo travel to Rome in the opposite mood. They were beaten 4-2 by Fiorentina on 2 November, five days after a 6-2 home defeat by Lazio. Both games were played at home, and the visitors have now conceded ten goals across their last two. Saturday's meeting at the Stadio Olimpico is a matchday 11 fixture between the division's third-placed side and a team sitting 17th.

Roma's league form reads WWWWDDWDWW over their last ten, which is seven wins and three draws with no defeats. The season numbers show they score as freely at home as on the road, with 14 goals in five home games and 14 in five away. They also defend well. They have conceded 10 times (1.0 per game) and kept five clean sheets, and the recent-form data puts their expected goals against at 1.39 per game, which suggests the defensive record is not the product of luck.

The attacking process is just as sound. Roma average 18.2 shots a game, with 6.3 on target, and their expected goals figure of 2.18 per game sits close to the rate at which they actually score. They also average 56.6% possession. Donyell Malen leads the side with 8 league goals, from 15 shots on target out of 30 attempts, according to this season's scoring figures.

Sassuolo have 8 points from 10 games and sit 17th. That is one point ahead of Monza, who occupy the first relegation place, so the visitors are inside the safety places only on goal difference of the table order, not on any real cushion. Their last ten league results are two wins, two draws and six defeats, and the most recent four were all losses.

The defensive numbers explain the slide. Sassuolo concede far too many goals over their last ten, and on the season's numbers they have let in 12 in five away games, and have won none of those five. Their expected goals against of 1.61 per game is lower than what they actually concede, which suggests some of the damage is finishing and goalkeeping variance, though it is still a poor base. At the other end they average 1.6 goals and 12.9 shots a game, and 46% of their away goals this season have come in matches they lost.

Roma's last ten league games return seven wins, three draws and no defeats, with 28 goals scored and 10 conceded. Sassuolo's return two wins, two draws and six defeats, with 16 scored and 26 conceded. The gap in shape is wide on those figures alone. The surface form does flatter Roma slightly in one respect, because two of their draws came away at Como (0-0) and Napoli (3-3), so they are not unbeatable in tight games. However, Sassuolo's last four results have all been defeats, and three of the last five went to opponents who scored at least four. The recent-form data shows Sassuolo's opponents scoring that many against them, which is the number Roma's attack is best placed to exploit.

Roma are third with 24 points from 10 games. They trail Lazio by four points and Inter by one, and they hold a one-point lead over fourth-placed Como, so the top four, which carries Champions League league-stage places, is separated by only five points. A win would keep them within touching distance of the leaders, while a slip would leave Como, on 23 points, with the chance to move past them.

Sassuolo are 17th with 8 points from 10 games, level with Parma and Fiorentina and one clear of Monza in 18th. Cagliari in 12th are five points ahead on 13. Another defeat could drop them into the bottom three by Sunday, depending on Monza's result, which makes the table pressure on the visitors immediate.

A head-to-head summary was not available for this fixture, so the comparison rests on the current season's numbers rather than historical meetings. That limits what can be said about the rivalry's pattern, and no meeting-by-meeting totals are quoted here.

The current data does give a clear read on goals. Sassuolo have seen 8 of their last 10 games finish over 2.5 goals and 9 of 10 finish with both teams scoring, while Roma have had 7 of 10 over 2.5. That points to a goals line that Roma can clear largely on their own, with Sassuolo's capacity to score (at least once in 9 of 10 league games) keeping the both teams to score market live. The correct-score lean is a home win by two or more goals.

The widest gap is in goals against. Roma concede 1.0 per game over their last ten, while Sassuolo concede far more, a difference of 1.6 per game. Roma's expected goals against is lower than Sassuolo's 1.61, so the underlying gap is smaller than the scoreboard gap, but it still favours the hosts.

Shot volume is the second mismatch. Roma average 18.2 shots and 6.3 on target, against 12.9 and 4.6 for Sassuolo, and they hold 56.6% of the ball to 48.1%. The corners split follows the same shape: Roma earn 5.7 per game and concede 3.5, while Sassuolo earn 4.0 and concede 5.3. Territory and set-piece pressure should sit with the home side, and Sassuolo's concession of 9 of their 26 league goals in the 46-60 minute window is a period Roma, who score 25% of their goals between the 76th and 90th minutes, may press hardest.

Roma are expected to line up in a 3-4-2-1, the shape used in their last outing at Udinese, with Malen leading the line. Sassuolo are likely to stay with the 4-3-3 they used against Fiorentina, a system they have deployed in seven of their ten league games.

AS Roma: Gollini; Ghilardi, Ndicka, Hermoso; Molina, de Roon, Cristante, Wesley; Soulé, Mora; Malen

Sassuolo: Turati; Walukiewicz, Candé, Idzes, Doig; Sulemana, Matić, Adžić; Berardi, Esposito, Laurienté

AS Roma v Sassuolo kicks off at 19:45 GMT on Saturday 7 November at Stadio Olimpico. It is live on DAZN.

The strongest angle is Sassuolo's defence. They have conceded in all ten league games, at that rate, while Roma score nearly three per game with an expected goals figure of 2.18. That mismatch drives the match result, the goals markets and the scorer pick. The main risk is a Sassuolo goal, since the visitors have scored in nine of ten, which is why the both teams to score pick sits alongside the home win.