Valencia v Real Madrid: Preview, predicted line-ups and prediction

Mestalla has not been a comfortable place for Valencia this season. They have not won there in six league games, they were beaten 5-0 by Barcelona on 6 September, and they sit 19th on nine points.

Their visitors on Saturday night are the form side in the division. Real Madrid are third on 27 points, three behind leaders Barcelona, and they beat their great rivals 2-1 on 25 October before winning 3-0 at Racing Santander on 1 November. Kylian Mbappé has 12 league goals already.

Valencia did at least end a sequence of four straight defeats with a 1-0 win at Elche last Sunday. It was their first win since 15 September.

Valencia have won two of their last ten in all competitions, drawn two and lost six. They have scored 8 goals in 11 league games, an average of 0.7, and have failed to score in five of them.

The problems are worse at home. Four of their six games at Mestalla have ended without a Valencia goal, and they concede 1.8 a game there. Half of their 17 league goals against have arrived between the 76th and 90th minutes, so they tend to be undone late.

Madrid are in a three-way chase at the top. Barcelona lead on 30 points and Atletico Madrid are second on 28, so any slip is costly. Their two league defeats came at Real Betis on 4 September and Atletico on 20 September, both away.

The road is still their weaker side. They have won four of six away games, scoring 11 and conceding 7, against 17 scored and 3 conceded at the Bernabeu. They face a side that has made 9.9 shots a game over its last ten.

Valencia's last ten reads two wins, two draws and six defeats, and the wins were 1-0 results against Elche and Alaves. Madrid's reads eight wins and two defeats, with 26 goals scored and nine conceded. Those two defeats were 2-1 at Atletico Madrid and 1-0 at Betis. Valencia's run has not been without competitive moments, including a 2-2 draw at Racing Santander, but the underlying numbers back the results: an average of 1.2 expected goals for and 1.02 against, from 44% of possession.

Valencia are 19th on nine points from 11 games, one place above bottom club Malaga. They sit one point behind 18th-placed Levante, who have 10, and the same gap separates them from Elche in 17th. A win would not lift them clear, but it would move them up the table in a tight bottom end.

Madrid are third on 27 points from 11 games, three behind Barcelona and one behind Atletico. Dropping points at Mestalla would let both rivals pull further away. Real Betis are fourth on 23 points, so Madrid have a four-point cushion over the chasing pack.

We do not have a head-to-head summary for this fixture, so there are no meeting totals to quote here.

The current-season data points one way. Madrid average 2.5 goals a game in the league and Valencia concede 1.5. At the other end, Valencia score 0.7 a game and Madrid concede 0.9. Madrid's last ten include eight games with three or more goals, which suggests a comfortable away win and an Over 2.5 lean rather than a tight game.

The biggest gap is in the chances created. Madrid average 2.36 expected goals over their last ten and 6.7 shots on target a game. Valencia manage 1.2 and 2.9. Madrid also concede only 0.83 expected goals a game, so Valencia will need to be clinical with very little.

The other gap is in possession and corners. Madrid average 50.8% of the ball and 6.1 corners a game, against Valencia's 44% and 4.2. Valencia also concede 5.2 corners a game, so Madrid should keep pinning them back. Valencia's best hope is that Madrid are less sharp away from home.

Valencia are expected to keep the 4-4-2 that won at Elche. Madrid are expected to name the 4-2-3-1 that beat Racing Santander.

Valencia: Dimitrievski; Martínez, Pepelu, Tárrega, Gayà; Maffeo, Mayol, Rodríguez, Rioja; Guerra, Danjuma

Real Madrid: Courtois; Alexander-Arnold, Huijsen, Konaté, Cucurella; Tchouaméni, Silva; Güler, Bellingham, Diomande; Mbappé

Valencia v Real Madrid kicks off at 20:00 GMT on Saturday 7 November at Estadio de Mestalla. It is live on Premier Sports.

The strongest angle is Madrid's attack against a Valencia side that has scored three home goals all season. Madrid score 3.4 goals a game at home and 1.8 away, but even the away rate is enough here. Mbappé's shot volume makes him the best player-based option, and the bet builder leans on that.