Arsenal v Hull City: Preview, predicted line-ups & team news

Arsenal host this fixture having won at Liverpool 1-0 on 1 November, a result that extended their lead at the top of the Premier League table to three points. It was the fourth win in a row, the kind of narrow, controlled away result that has defined their autumn.

Hull City come to the Emirates Stadium with a different profile. They drew 2-2 with Ipswich last Saturday and 1-1 with Brentford the weekend before, and the form data shows five draws from their nine league games. Few sides in the division are as hard to beat and as hard to separate. Whether that habit survives a trip to the league leaders is the question this match asks.

Arsenal have won eight of their nine league games, with the only defeat a 3-0 loss at Brighton on 19 September. Since then they have beaten Leeds 2-1, Nottingham Forest 1-0, Everton 2-0 and Liverpool 1-0. They have scored 14 and conceded five, a goal difference of plus nine.

The home numbers are stronger still. Arsenal have won all four league games at the Emirates, scoring 9 (2.3 per game) and conceding 2. Their recent-form aggregate shows an average of 59% possession, 1.48 expected goals for and 0.60 against, suggesting the defensive record reflects process rather than luck. However, only one of their nine league games has produced more than 2.5 Arsenal goals' worth of output in a single match, so the scoring is steady rather than explosive.

Hull sit 11th on 11 points from nine games, with two wins, five draws and two defeats. They are five points clear of 18th-placed Crystal Palace on 7, so the immediate pressure is limited. Four of their five home games have been drawn, though away from home the picture is thinner: one win, one draw and two defeats from four, including a 1-0 loss at Fulham on 17 October.

Their approach is built on a 5-4-1 shape and little of the ball. The recent-form data shows 33.8% average possession and 10 shots per game, with 6.11 corners conceded per match. The expected-goals figures (1.11 for, 1.58 against) suggest they have been slightly fortunate to hold a positive goal difference of plus one.

Arsenal's last nine league games read eight wins and one defeat, with no draws, and four consecutive wins going into the weekend. Hull's read two wins, five draws and two defeats, with no victory in their last seven league games since the 1-0 win at Coventry on 29 August (a 2-0 win over Manchester United came a week earlier). Surface form therefore favours Arsenal clearly. The one caution is that Hull's draws have often come against decent opposition, including 2-2 at Chelsea and 2-2 with Everton, and their unbeaten spells have been built on scoring twice in several of those games. Arsenal's defensive record, with 0.56 goals conceded per game on the aggregate, is the main reason the gap still looks wide.

Arsenal lead the Premier League with 24 points from nine games, three clear of Manchester City on 21 (also with nine played) and five clear of Brighton in third on 19 points.