PSG v Troyes prediction: league leaders face a side with five straight league defeats on its record

Paris Saint Germain head into Saturday night as Ligue 1 leaders with 20 points from nine games, two clear of Lille, and the table offers them little reason to look over their shoulder. Troyes arrive in 16th place with eight points and a goal difference of minus nine.

The visitors did end a poor run last weekend with a 2-0 home win over Le Mans, their first victory since the end of August. Before that came five defeats in six league games. A trip to the Parc des Princes is a very different test from Le Mans.

PSG have won six of nine, drawn two and lost one, and they kick off at 20:05 GMT with the chance to extend that run in front of their own supporters.

PSG have won their last five league matches. The most recent, a 5-1 win at Le Havre on 30 October, took their away tally this season to 15 goals in six games, with four wins and two draws and no defeats on the road. They followed a 2-0 home win over Lyon on 26 October with that trip to Normandy.

Their only defeat came at home, 2-1 against Monaco on 4 September. At the Parc des Princes they have played three, won two and lost one, scoring six and conceding three. The numbers behind the results are strong too: an expected goals figure of 2.14 per game for, 1.13 against, and 68.6% average possession.

Troyes are 16th, in the relegation play-off place, and only one point clear of 17th-placed Le Mans, the first side in the automatic drop zone. Their problem is at both ends. They have scored seven goals in nine games and conceded 16, with 11 of those against coming at home.

The heavy defeats tell the story. They lost 6-2 at home to Strasbourg on 6 September and 3-1 to Lens on 17 October. A 0-0 draw at Toulouse on 25 October showed they can defend when they sit deep, and their away record (five conceded in four games) is better than their home one. Even so, with 38.8% average possession and 13.3 shots per game, they will spend most of Saturday without the ball.

Over the nine league games counted, PSG have won six, drawn two and lost one, with a 5-1 win at Le Havre their latest result. Troyes have won two, drawn two and lost five, and those two wins came against Lorient on 29 August and Le Mans last Saturday. Surface form flatters neither side's opponents: PSG have scored in every one of their nine games, while Troyes's expected goals figure of 0.93 per game suggests their goal drought is not simply bad luck. Their defence has actually conceded fewer than the chances against them would suggest (0.76 xG against, 1.78 goals), which is the sort of luck that tends to even out, and against PSG it is unlikely to hold.

PSG are first on 20 points from nine games, with a goal difference of plus 11 and a two-point lead over second-placed Lille, who have played the same number of games. Lyon and Paris FC follow on 17. A win keeps the gap at the top intact, and a slip would let Lille close in with a game in hand to come against someone else.

Troyes are 16th on eight points from nine, with a goal difference of minus nine. Le Mans are one point behind in 17th and Le Havre are bottom on two. Troyes cannot afford to treat this as a free hit, because a defeat leaves them exposed to the sides below them, but a point would be a big result.

We do not have a head-to-head summary for this fixture, so there is no meeting count or goals average to quote. The sides have met little in recent years, and with Troyes only just back in the top flight, history offers little to go on.

The better guide is current form. PSG have been scoring freely, with seven of their nine league games producing three or more goals in total, while Troyes have had only three of nine reach that mark. The goal line is therefore driven by what PSG do rather than by anything Troyes bring. For the correct score market, a comfortable home win to nil looks the likeliest outcome given Troyes's five blanks in nine games.

The biggest gap is in the shots on target column: 7.67 per game for PSG against 3.22 for Troyes. PSG also create far more, with 19.3 shots per game to 13.3, and they average 68.6% of the ball to 38.8%. That is a side that pins opponents back and a side that cannot get out.

The second gap is expected goals. PSG's 2.14 per game is more than double Troyes's 0.93. Troyes's best route is a fast start, as four of their seven goals have come in the first half hour, but PSG have conceded only one in the opening 15 minutes all season. If Troyes cannot score early, the game will tilt quickly.

Both sides set up in a 4-3-3 in their latest games and we expect no change in shape. The main selection question for the hosts is how many changes come after the 5-1 win at Le Havre, while Troyes are likely to keep the XI that beat Le Mans.

Paris Saint Germain: Safonov; Hakimi, Zabarnyi, Hernández, Digne; Zaïre-Emery, Fernández, Mayulu; Akliouche, Torres, Godts

Estac Troyes: Konaté; Maronnier, Monfray, Diaz, Gozzi; Mille, Karim, Diop; Ifnaoui, Ripart, Nkada

Paris Saint Germain v Estac Troyes kicks off at 20:05 GMT on Saturday 7 November at Parc des Princes. It is live on Ligue 1+.

The strongest angle on the card is the mismatch in output: PSG have scored in all nine league games and average 2.33 goals, while Troyes have drawn a blank in five of nine. That makes the Troyes side of the goals markets the weak point, and the home win and goals picks the leg doing the heavy lifting. The bet builder pairs a home win with the goals line and a starter in attack.