Union Berlin v Borussia Dortmund: Preview, predicted line-ups & team news

Union Berlin's 7-0 defeat at Bayern Munich on 18 September is still the heaviest reading on their season, and it came in a run of three straight league losses that also included 4-0 at Bayer Leverkusen and 3-1 at home to Schalke. A 1-0 win over SV Elversberg last Saturday ended the slide. It was a first clean sheet since the opening weeks, but it was a narrow result against a side that sits well below the Bundesliga's upper tier on reputation. Borussia Dortmund, meanwhile, travel to Berlin unbeaten after five games, having drawn 2-2 at home to Werder Bremen on 9 October after leading late in the season's opening stretch of wins. The visitors are second on 13 points, and the numbers suggest this is a mismatch of form as much as reputation.

Union's season numbers show a side that scores late and concedes often. Four of their five league goals have come between the 76th and 90th minutes, and their only draw was a 3-3 against Eintracht Frankfurt on 29 August. At home they average 1.7 goals scored and 2.0 conceded across three games, with one win, one draw and one defeat. Away from the Alte Försterei the picture has been far worse: 0 scored and 11 conceded in two trips, at an average of 5.5 per game.

The home side's recent-form data points to a team that is being outplayed. Over their last five league games Union have averaged 45.2% possession and an xG for figure of 1.13 against 2.21 xG against. They have failed to score in two of those five matches and kept one clean sheet, which suggests the Elversberg result was more an outlier than a turning point.

Borussia Dortmund have won four and drawn one of their five league games, scoring 11 and conceding four, and the recent-form data shows the balance behind those results. They average 2.2 goals scored with an xG for figure of 1.81, against 0.8 conceded and an xG against figure of just 0.91. Three clean sheets in five games and no failure to score underline a side that is hard to break down and reliable in front of goal.

This is a test of how much a team in a strong run needs to change at a ground where it has won twice in recent seasons. Dortmund have won both of their away league games this season, 3-2 at Hoffenheim and 1-0 at VfB Stuttgart, scoring four and conceding two. Their 3-4-2-1 shape has been used in four of their five starts, and there is little sign of a reason to change it in Berlin. The one frustration is a late habit: three of their four goals against have come between the 76th and 90th minutes, which Union's late scoring record could exploit.

Union's last five league results read one win, one draw and three defeats (DLLLW), with five goals scored and 17 conceded. Dortmund's read four wins, one draw and no defeats (WWWWD), with 11 scored and four conceded. The gap is wide on the surface and the underlying data supports it: Dortmund average 15.8 shots per game with 5.8 on target, while Union average 13.2 and 5.2. However, the Elversberg win suggests Union can still produce a result at home, and Dortmund's 2-2 draw with Bremen showed they can be opened up late. The numbers still point to a visiting side in far better shape.

Dortmund are second on 13 points from five games with a goal difference of +7, level on points with leaders SC Freiburg (+10) and two clear of third-placed Bayern Munich on 11. A win would keep them in touch with the top spot, and a slip would let Bayern and Leverkusen (10 points) close the gap on a Champions League league-stage place.

Union's position in the table is more precarious than their home form suggests. They have four points from five games, and their goal difference of -12 is among the worst in the division. A home win would add real breathing space and give the new head coach, in post since 1 July, some momentum before the next block of fixtures. Another heavy defeat would push the hosts towards the lower reaches of the table before the end of October.

Dortmund have won 8 of the last 10 meetings between the sides, Union have won 2 and none has been drawn. Those games have averaged 3.7 goals, with 8 of the 10 going over 2.5 goals (80%) and both teams scoring in 4 (40%). The most recent meeting was a 3-0 Dortmund win at Stadion An der Alten Försterei on 24 January 2026, following a 3-0 win at Signal Iduna Park on 31 August 2025 and a 6-0 win there on 22 February 2025.

The pattern is lopsided rather than high-scoring at both ends, which matters for the markets. Dortmund have kept clean sheets in each of the last three meetings, winning by an aggregate of 12-0, and Union's last win in the fixture was 2-1 on 5 October 2024. The 40% BTTS rate suggests the visitors winning to nil is a realistic outcome, but Union's late scoring record (four of five goals in the final 15 minutes) and Dortmund's late concessions make a goal for the hosts plausible. The numbers lean towards a Dortmund win with three or more goals in the match.

The biggest gap is in goals conceded. Union have averaged 3.4 goals against over their last five league games with an xG against figure of 2.21, while Dortmund have averaged 0.8 against with an xG against of 0.91. That is a difference of more than one expected goal per game before a ball is kicked, and Union's defence has been without several first-choice players.

The second gap is territory. Dortmund average 53.4% possession and 15.8 shots per game, against 45.2% and 13.2 for Union, and Dortmund also win more corners (4.8 per game against 3.8) while conceding fewer (4.6 against 6.0). Union have also failed to score in two of five league games. The hosts' route to a result is likely to be late pressure rather than sustained control, as 80% of their goals this season have come after the 75th minute.

Kick-off at Stadion An der Alten Försterei is at 14:30 BST on Saturday 17 October 2026. A UK broadcaster has not been confirmed for this fixture, and this page will be updated closer to kick-off once the rights holder is known.

The strongest angle in the data is Union's defensive record, which shapes every market here. They have conceded 17 goals in five league games and 11 in two away trips, and Dortmund have scored in all five league matches. The match-result price of 4/7 is short, so the more interesting value sits in the goals markets, where the 80% over 2.5 rate across the last ten meetings and Union's xG against of 2.21 both point the same way.