Manchester United v Aston Villa: Preview, predicted line-ups & team news

Manchester United have gone from a 5-2 home win over Ipswich on 30 August to a run that has produced one win in nine league games. The latest setback came at Chelsea on 31 October, a 2-0 defeat that followed a 3-0 home loss to Bournemouth a week earlier. That left them 17th on seven points, only on goal difference above the relegation places. Aston Villa visit Old Trafford on Sunday with the opposite momentum: they have not lost since 12 September, and they beat Manchester City 2-1 on 24 October. The question for the hosts is whether a home crowd and a 4-2-3-1 that has scored only 10 league goals can turn a run of draws back into wins.

Manchester United's season numbers show a side that creates more than it scores. The recent-form data has them averaging 17 shots and 4.78 on target per game, with an expected goals figure of 1.65 for, against 1.11 actual goals per game. That gap suggests some of the problem is finishing, and four failures to score in nine games, two at home and two away, back that up.

The defensive side is harder to explain away. United have kept no clean sheet, have conceded 15 goals (1.67 per game) and allow 1.70 expected goals a game, so the concessions are not simply bad luck. At Old Trafford they have won one, drawn one and lost two of their four league games, scoring 6 and conceding 7.

Aston Villa are 10th on 12 points from nine games, with three wins, three draws and three defeats. Their last five league results read draw, win, win, draw, win, which is eleven points from a possible fifteen after an opening run of three defeats in four. The 1-0 win at Newcastle on 17 October and the 3-2 win at Tottenham on 19 September show they can take points on the road, and their away record is two wins, one draw and one defeat.

The underlying numbers are less flattering. Villa average 1.04 expected goals for and concede 1.80 expected goals against per game, with 11.67 shots and 2.89 on target. They have the better results than the process, which suggests the unbeaten run may owe something to fine margins. They also have a goal difference of minus three, five points clear of United but with a similar scoring record of 10 goals each.

The recent-form data shows Manchester United with 1 win, 4 draws and 4 losses from their last nine league games, and Aston Villa with 3 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses. United have lost their last two and drawn the three before that, scoring just 1 goal per game in that five-match run (2 goals across the three draws, 0 in the two defeats combined: 3 in five games). Villa have won three of their last five and drawn the other two. The surface form favours Villa, yet their expected goals figures are weaker than United's at both ends, with 1.04 for and 1.80 against against 1.65 for and 1.70 against. That suggests the gap between the sides is narrower than the table implies.

Manchester United are 17th on 7 points from 9 games, with a goal difference of minus five. They are level on points with 18th-placed Crystal Palace, who sit in the relegation zone on a worse goal difference (minus 12), and are two points behind Fulham and Coventry on 9. Aston Villa are 10th on 12 points from 9, a point behind Tottenham and Bournemouth and three clear of 15th-placed Fulham.

A home win would lift United to 10 points and move them above Fulham and Coventry, though both have games to play. A defeat would leave them on 7 with Forest on 6 and Sunderland on 5 within touching distance of the bottom three. For Villa, a win would take them to 15 points, level with Liverpool in sixth, which makes this more than a mid-table fixture.

Manchester United have won 6 of the last 10 league meetings, Aston Villa 2, with 2 draws. Those games have averaged 3.2 goals, with both teams scoring in 7 (70%) and more than 2.5 goals in 7 (70%). The last meeting was a 3-1 United win at Old Trafford on 15 March 2026, while Villa won 2-1 at Villa Park on 21 December 2025. United also won 2-0 at Old Trafford on 25 May 2025.

The pattern favours United at home, but the sides are in different shape now. Both have scored 10 goals in nine league games this season, which is well below the average that these fixtures have produced. That tempers the Over 2.5 case: Villa's league goals-against figure of 1.44 per game and United's 1.11 scored per game point towards a lower total. Both teams scoring still looks the better angle, because United have conceded in all nine games and Villa have scored in six of nine.

The widest gap is in shot volume. United average 17 shots and 4.78 on target per game, against 11.67 and 2.89 for Villa, so the hosts should have far more of the ball in the final third. Their possession averages 53.7%, compared with 46.1%. United also win the corner battle on the recent-form data, 5.56 for against 3.56 for Villa, while Villa concede 4.89 a game.

The counterpoint is defensive. Villa have two clean sheets, United none, and Villa concede fewer goals (1.44 against 1.67 per game). If United's volume of chances keeps failing to turn into goals, as in the four games where they failed to score, Villa's compact output can still be enough for a point.

Both sides used a 4-2-3-1 in their last league games and the predicted XIs follow those team sheets. United's main decision is whether to alter a midfield that has produced one league win in nine, while Villa may stay with the side that drew with Fulham.

Manchester United: Lammens; Yoro, Maguire, Martínez, Dalot; Santos, Baleba; Diallo, Fernandes, Cunha; Mbeumo

Aston Villa: Suzuki; Cash, Lindelöf, Torres, Maatsen; Kamara, Goretzka; Edward, McGinn, Manzambi; Jackson

Manchester United v Aston Villa kicks off at 16:30 GMT on Sunday 8 November at Old Trafford. It is live on Sky Sports and TNT Sports.

The strongest angle is both teams to score. United have conceded in every league game this season and Villa have scored in six of nine, while seven of the last ten head-to-head meetings have seen goals at both ends. The total goals market is less clear cut, because both sides have scored 10 in nine and a draw looks a fair reading of two teams with similar attacking output. The picks below lean on that reading.