Atletico Madrid v Barcelona prediction: Metropolitano clash with the La Liga lead at stake

Barcelona arrive in Madrid with the best attack in Spain and a bruise still fresh. They lost 2-1 at home to Real Madrid on 25 October, ending a run of nine straight league wins, then bounced back with a 6-1 thrashing of Alaves six days later.

Atletico have used that wobble well. Five wins in a row in La Liga have lifted them to second, two points behind the leaders, and they host this one at the Metropolitano having won four and drawn one of their five home league games.

The fixture also carries recent history. These sides have met five times since February, and Barcelona won the most recent one, a 2-1 Champions League quarter-final second leg in Madrid on 14 April.

Barcelona top the table on 30 points from 11 games, with 10 wins and one defeat. Their 46 goals and goal difference of plus 34 are both the best in the division. They have scored at least twice in 10 of their 11 league games, according to their over 1.5 record, and have not failed to score once.

The weakness is at the back at the Camp Nou. They have conceded seven times in six home league games, against five in five away games, and they have kept four clean sheets in 11. Their last-10 record shows 12 goals against, with an expected goals against figure of 0.84 a game, so the defence has been unlucky as much as loose. Even so, a 2-1 home defeat to Real Madrid shows what a sharp opponent can do to them.

Atletico have lost once in 11 league games, 3-0 away to Athletic Club on 5 September. Since then they have won seven of eight, including 2-1 against Real Madrid at home on 20 September. They have conceded just eight goals, 0.7 a game, and have kept six clean sheets.

The question is whether they can score enough against a side that scores freely. Atletico average 2.0 goals a game and have scored at least three only twice in their last ten. They do score late, though: 8 of their 22 league goals have come between the 76th and 90th minutes. Barcelona have conceded 4 of their 12 in that same spell.

Atletico have won 8, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 10, while Barcelona have won 9 and lost 1. On the surface there is little between them, but the scorelines tell a different story. Barcelona have scored 41 goals in those 10 games, an average of 4.1. Atletico have scored 20. Barcelona's expected goals for figure of 2.71 a game backs that up, whereas Atletico's 1.07 suggests they have been efficient rather than dominant. Atletico's wins have been narrow, with 1-0 victories over Deportivo La Coruna and Espanyol among them. That kind of record can turn quickly against a side with Barcelona's shooting volume.

Barcelona lead on 30 points from 11 games, two clear of Atletico on 28, also from 11. Real Madrid are third on 27 with the same number of games played, so the top three are separated by three points. Real Betis in fourth are on 23, a gap of five to Atletico and seven to Barcelona.

A Barcelona win would open a five-point gap over Atletico and put the visitors firmly in control of the early season. An Atletico win would lift them to 31 points and take them top, a point clear of Barcelona. A draw would leave the two-point gap as it is, with Real Madrid still within one point of Atletico.

Across the last 10 meetings in all competitions, Barcelona have won six, Atletico three and one has been drawn. The games have averaged 3.7 goals. Both teams have scored in six of the 10 (60%), and eight of the 10 (80%) went over 2.5 goals. The most recent was the Champions League quarter-final second leg at the Metropolitano on 14 April, which Barcelona won 2-1.

The pattern is that these games are open but rarely level. Atletico beat Barcelona 4-0 at the Metropolitano in the cup semi-final first leg on 12 February, and Barcelona won 3-0 in the return on 3 March. The goals line looks well supported by that history, but the 40% of games without both sides scoring includes those two big wins. Atletico's improved defensive record this season makes a repeat of such a lopsided score less likely, and a 2-1 or 1-2 result fits the recent pattern best.

The biggest gap is in the final third. Barcelona average 4.1 goals over their last 10, double Atletico's 2.0, from 20.8 shots a game (8.2 on target) against 16.8 (6.0). They also dominate the ball, with 71.8% possession against 60.2%.

Atletico's edge is in the other column. They have conceded 0.8 a game in their last 10 against Barcelona's 1.2, and kept five clean sheets to Barcelona's three. The home side will not win the possession battle, so set pieces and late goals will matter: Atletico average 5.7 corners a game, against 7.4 for Barcelona, but their late-goal record gives them a route into the game.

Atletico are expected to line up in a 4-4-2 and Barcelona in a 4-3-3, both unchanged from their wins on 31 October. Atletico's pairing of Lee and Álvarez up front is the main selection to watch. Barcelona's front three could be tweaked after the Alaves game.

Atletico Madrid: Oblak; Llorente, Pubill, Hancko, Grimaldo; Baldini, Rivas, Hjulmand, Rodríguez; Lee, Álvarez

Barcelona: García; Farinas, Paredes, de Jong, Cancelo; Pedri, Rodri, Fermín; Yamal, Raphinha, Adeyemi

Atletico Madrid v Barcelona kicks off at 20:00 GMT on Sunday 8 November at Metropolitano Stadium. It is live on Premier Sports.

The strongest angle is goals at both ends. Barcelona have scored in every league game this season and Atletico have failed to score in only one of 11. Barcelona's defence has conceded in seven of 11, so the case for both teams scoring is built on both attacks. Barcelona's attacking numbers carry the heaviest weight in the bet builder, but the Atletico side of the equation is just as strong.