Udinese v AC Milan: Preview, predicted line-ups & team news

Udinese have not won a league game since 29 August, and the run has pushed them into the bottom half of the table with a problem that is getting harder to ignore. Last Sunday they were beaten 3-0 at home by Lecce, a week after a 2-1 defeat at Torino.

Udinese now face an AC Milan team who have not lost in Serie A this season. Milan beat Atalanta 3-2 last weekend and head to Friuli looking to stay in touch with the leaders.

For the hosts it is a bad time to meet a side with Milan's attacking output. They are also short of options up front.

Udinese's season record reads one win, one draw and five defeats from seven games. They have four points, with two goals scored in four home games (0.5 per match) and seven conceded at the Bluenergy Stadium.

The defensive numbers are the bigger worry. They have conceded 16 goals in seven league games, an average of 2.3, and their recent-form data puts their expected goals against at 2.18 per game, so the damage is not simply bad luck. They have failed to score in two of their seven matches and are yet to keep a clean sheet.

Milan are fifth with 15 points from seven games, with four wins and three draws. They have scored 14 and conceded seven, and have kept two clean sheets, both at home.

Away from San Siro they are harder to separate from their opponents. They have won one and drawn three of four on the road, scoring six and conceding five. Nine of their 14 league goals have come between the 61st and 75th minutes, which suggests a side that wears opponents down before finishing them off. Udinese have conceded four goals in that same window.

Across their last seven league games Udinese have won one, drawn one and lost five, scoring 9 and conceding 16. Milan have won four, drawn three and lost none, scoring 14 and conceding seven. Milan also lead on average expected goals, 1.67 to 1.19, and on possession, 59.7% to 51.1%. The one caveat is that Milan have drawn three of their four away games, so the surface form says they are better but not that they are automatic on the road.

Udinese are 16th with four points from seven games. That is level with Genoa, Fiorentina and Parma, and three clear of 15th-placed Monza (seven points from eight). Fiorentina, in the bottom three, sit on the same four points with a worse goal difference. A fifth straight defeat would leave Udinese looking at the relegation places with a negative goal difference of -7 or worse.

Milan are fifth on 15 points from seven games, two behind fourth-placed Como (17 points from eight) and seven behind leaders Lazio (22 from eight). They have a game in hand on both. A win would move them to 18 points, enough to go third, ahead of Roma (18 from eight) on goal difference only if results elsewhere allow, and certainly into the top four.

Milan have the edge over the last 10 meetings, with five wins to Udinese's three and two draws. Those games have averaged 3.1 goals. Both teams scored in five of them (50%) and six went over 2.5 goals (60%). The most recent meeting, on 11 April 2026 at the San Siro, finished Milan 0-3 Udinese.

That result is the outlier. Before it, Milan had won three of the previous four, including 3-0 and 4-0 at the Bluenergy Stadium in the last two visits. The goals line looks the better angle than the result. Over 2.5 has landed in 60% of meetings, and Udinese's defensive record this season points the same way. A Milan win with Udinese scoring once is the shape that fits best.

Defence is the biggest gap. Udinese concede 2.3 goals per game and 2.18 xG against, while Milan concede 1.0 and 1.26 xG. Milan have also kept two clean sheets to Udinese's none.

The second gap is the final-third threat. Milan average 2.0 goals and 4.71 shots on target per game, against 1.29 goals and 3.86 for Udinese. The third is set pieces. Udinese concede 5.71 corners per game and win 3.86, so Milan should have territory and regular chances to attack the box.

The game kicks off at 19:45 GMT on Sunday 25 October, after the clocks go back in the UK. DAZN holds the Serie A rights for the UK and Ireland in 2026-27 and shows seven matches per round exclusively. DAZN is the only broadcaster named for the competition, but the channel for this fixture has not been confirmed, so this page will be updated if that changes.

The value sits in Milan on the money line and the goals market rather than in a big scoreline. Udinese have conceded in all seven league games, so Milan to win at 4/5 is the anchor, with Over 2.5 at 9/10 offering a better price than the win itself would suggest. The bet builder leans on Milan's late goals.