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Sweden v Tunisia prediction, lineups & tips: World Cup 2026 Group F opener

Graham Potter's side open their FIFA World Cup 2026 campaign at the Estadio BBVA in Monterrey against a Tunisia team that arrives on a wretched run of form. Our prediction, predicted lineups and betting tips.

Published
Sun 14 Jun, 05:03

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Viktor Gyökeres and Alexander Isak step onto a World Cup pitch together for the first time on Monday morning as Sweden open their FIFA World Cup 2026 Group F campaign against Tunisia at the Estadio BBVA in Monterrey. For Graham Potter, the occasion is the payoff for one of the more remarkable rescue missions in recent international football, Sweden became the first team in history to reach a World Cup after finishing bottom of their qualifying group, scraping through via the UEFA play-offs courtesy of Gyökeres's four goals across two matches against Ukraine and Poland.

BET FOOTBALL
SwedenSweden
5–1
Full time
TunisiaTunisia
Mon 15 Jun, 03:00•Estadio BBVA

Potter, who built his reputation guiding Östersund from the Swedish fourth tier to European football before stints at Brighton, Chelsea and West Ham, took charge in October 2025 with Sweden in disarray. He guided them to qualification within five months. Speaking to FIFA ahead of the tournament, the Englishman said his squad are "far from perfect, but in some ways that's what it means to be a team, what it means to represent Sweden", and that the collective want to "represent our country in the best way, show who we are collectively and as individuals, and ultimately enjoy it."

Dejan Kulusevski is the notable absentee from the squad, still sidelined following knee surgery that has been further hampered by setbacks. Otherwise Potter can call on one of the most menacing forward lines at the tournament, with Gyökeres's raw power complemented by Isak's movement across the front line. The two have rarely played together for Sweden, with Isak missing the March play-offs through injury, and Sweden's Group F assignment, Netherlands and Japan follow Tunisia, is demanding enough to leave Potter little margin for error from the first whistle.

Tunisia arrive in a different kind of trouble. Manager Sabri Lamouchi, who replaced Sami Trabelsi following a last-16 exit to Mali at the Africa Cup of Nations, has managed only two competitive games with the squad. More damaging than the lack of time together is the pre-tournament form: Tunisia lost 1-0 to Austria on 1 June and were then beaten 5-0 by Belgium on 6 June. They have failed to score in three consecutive games and netted just once in their last four outings.

It is a jarring contrast to the qualification campaign, in which Trabelsi's side won nine of ten matches in CAF Group H without conceding a single goal, a record that had never been achieved across a full World Cup qualifying campaign. That defensive solidity now belongs to a different coaching regime. Lamouchi will hope his players can rediscover the discipline that got them here, but the warm-up results offer little confidence.

Last 6 · most recent left
SwedenSweden
No recent formW0 D0 L0
TunisiaTunisia
No recent formW0 D0 L0
Last 1 meetings · most recent first
  1. 15 Jun 26Sweden5–1TunisiaSweden
Home wins
1
Draws
0
Away wins
0
Goals · H / A
5 / 1

Graham Potter told reporters in a pre-tournament interview that he sees Gyökeres and Isak as "different in their styles, which is good for us", pointing to Gyökeres's ability to attack the last line while Isak offers movement wider and deeper. With Tunisia already conceding five to Belgium, the prospect of both forwards firing in the same game for the first time will concern Lamouchi considerably.

Predicted line-ups for Sweden v Tunisia

Potter has favoured a flexible 3-4-2-1 system in his short tenure, though the two forwards will likely operate in tandem from the start. Lamouchi used a flat back four against Belgium but could shift to a more defensive structure in Monterrey.

Sweden: Nordfeldt; Johansson, Lindelof, Starfelt, Gudmundsson; Elanga, Ayari, Karlstrom, Sema; Isak, Gyokeres

Tunisia: Dahmen; Abdi, Talbi, Bronn, Valery; Skhiri, Belhadj Mahmoud; Achouri, Khedira, Ben Slimane; Mastouri

Where to watch Sweden v Tunisia: TV and online streams

Sweden v Tunisia kicks off at 03:00 BST on Monday 15 June 2026 at the Estadio BBVA in Guadalupe, Monterrey. In the UK, the FIFA World Cup 2026 is broadcast on BBC and ITV, with streams available via BBC iPlayer and ITVX.

Stats for Sweden v Tunisia

  • Sweden and Tunisia have met four times, all friendlies, Sweden lead 2-1 with one draw. The last meeting, in February 2003, ended 1-0 to Tunisia. This is the first competitive fixture between the sides.
  • Tunisia won nine of ten CAF qualifying matches without conceding a single goal under Trabelsi, but have conceded six and scored once in their last three games under Lamouchi.
  • Viktor Gyökeres scored four goals across Sweden's two play-off matches in March 2026, including a hat-trick against Ukraine.
  • Sweden are appearing at their 13th FIFA World Cup, having last reached the quarter-finals in Russia 2018. Tunisia are at their seventh World Cup, yet to advance past the group stage in any appearance.
Headline prediction · our pick
✓ HitConfidence · medium

match result: sweden to win

Tunisia's warm-up results are too alarming to ignore, three games without a goal, five conceded against Belgium, and a new manager still trying to establish an identity. Sweden have the class to exploit that disorganisation, with Gyökeres and Isak the most potent first-choice forward pairing in the group. Tunisia grabbed a shock win over this opposition in 2003, so a clean sheet is not guaranteed, but the balance of quality and form points clearly to a Sweden win.

Best Price10/11bet365 · score 2-0
✓ Prediction landed
TIP 01✗ Miss

Correct Score: 2-0

Tunisia have failed to score in three straight games ahead of this fixture, conceding six across those matches. Sweden's defensive structure under Potter held firm through two high-pressure play-off matches. A 2-0 scoreline reflects Sweden's attacking depth, Gyökeres and Isak both finding the net, while Tunisia's goal drought continues in their first game under Lamouchi in a competitive environment. It is the most logical outcome given the form gap.

TIP 02✗ Miss

Over 2.5 Goals: Under

Tunisia's last four games have produced a combined total of one goal scored by the Eagles of Carthage, and they conceded five in a single match against Belgium. That kind of defensive fragility raises over 2.5 possibilities, but Tunisia's deep-sitting approach in qualifying, where they conceded zero goals in ten games, suggests they will sit back and try to frustrate. Sweden are likely to control possession and find goals, but a high-scoring thriller feels unlikely. Under 2.5 remains a narrow lean given the uncertainty around Tunisia's defensive shape under Lamouchi.

TIP 03✗ Miss

Both Teams to Score: No

Tunisia have not scored in three consecutive matches and step into their biggest game in years having been beaten by five goals last week. Lamouchi's side showed through qualifying that they can shut up shop when the system is right, but that system is still a work in progress. Sweden's defensive record through the play-offs was solid. The stronger data point here is Tunisia's goal drought, backing BTTS No accounts for the real possibility that Sweden keep a clean sheet.

TIP 04✓ Hit

Anytime Goalscorer: Viktor Gyokeres

Gyökeres scored four goals in Sweden's two play-off matches in March 2026, including a hat-trick against Ukraine. He arrives at the World Cup as Sweden's primary attacking threat, with the physical profile and finishing ability to punish a Tunisia backline that has conceded freely since Lamouchi took charge. No player at this World Cup has shown a more direct route to goal in recent international windows, and this is the opener he will have been building towards.

TIP 05✓ Hit

Double Chance: Home or Draw

Sweden's forward quality gives them a clear edge over a Tunisia side that has looked disorganised in pre-tournament friendlies under a new manager with limited time on the training ground. The Double Chance covers the scenario in which Lamouchi's defensive instincts reassert themselves and Sweden cannot find the breakthrough, a genuine risk given Tunisia's history of well-organised clean sheets in qualifying. At this price, it provides sensible cover for the headline Sweden win pick.

Build the Sweden v Tunisia bet

BetFootball Builder · 3 Legs✗ Miss
Home Win
✓ Hit
Match Result
10/11

Sweden's attacking firepower is the foundation of this bet builder. Gyökeres and Isak playing together for the first time in a major tournament against a Tunisia side that has not scored in three games sets a clear directional read. This leg anchors the builder to the most likely outcome and ensures the other two legs are built on a solid base.

No
✗ Miss
Both Teams to Score
13/18

This leg complements the Home Win selection without directly correlating to it, it does not predict the scoreline, only that Tunisia fail to score. Tunisia's three-match goal drought and the step up from warm-up friendlies to a World Cup Group F opener against Sweden's pressing system makes a Tunisia goal far from certain. Pairing this with a Sweden win points to the 1-0 or 2-0 type of result.

Viktor Gyokeres
✓ Hit
Anytime Goalscorer
11/10

Gyökeres is the natural goalscorer in this Sweden side and picks up where he left off in the March play-offs, where he netted four times in two matches. This leg is drawn from a different market to both the result and BTTS legs, and it does not directly correlate with either, Sweden can win with Isak scoring rather than Gyökeres, and BTTS No simply requires Tunisia not to score. Together, the three legs tell a coherent story: Sweden win, Tunisia do not score, and their most dangerous forward finds the net.

Combined Price
59/10
Stake£10.00
Returns£68.99
Profit+£58.99
World Cup · season 2026 · Group FLive snapshot
#TeamPGDPts
1NetherlandsNetherlands3+67
2JapanJapan3+45
3SwedenSweden304
4TunisiaTunisia3-100