Sunderland v Leeds: Preview, predicted line-ups & team news

Sunderland have a goalscoring problem, and it is getting hard to ignore.

The hosts have lost their last two league games without scoring, 2-0 at Bournemouth and 2-0 at home to Brighton, and they now sit bottom of the table.

That leaves a visit from Leeds looking like either a chance to break the run or the next stop on a long slide.

Sunderland have not been short of encouragement from their own club.

Whether that is enough against a team who rarely concede is another matter.

What has gone wrong for Sunderland? Goals, mostly, at both ends.

They have scored six in seven league games (0.9 a game) and conceded 14, an average of two. Only one of those seven games ended in a clean sheet.

The home record is thin too. One win from three at the Stadium of Light, but just one goal scored there, and Arsenal and Brighton both won 2-0 on Wearside.

There is a leak after the break as well. Five of their 14 goals conceded have come between 46 and 60 minutes, and four more between 76 and 90, so Leeds will fancy their chances of finding a way through in the second half.

Their last away game was a 5-3 defeat at Manchester City, which tells you all you need to know about their defensive state.

Leeds arrive in a very different mood, if not an especially thrilling one.

Daniel Farke's side are seventh with 10 points from seven games, and their form reads WDDWDLD, with four draws in those seven.

They have conceded only six, an average of 0.9 a game, and have two clean sheets. Their 4-1 win over Newcastle at Elland Road stands out in a run that is mostly about being awkward to beat.

They drew 1-1 with Manchester United last time out, and lost 2-1 at Arsenal the week before. Neither result is a bad one.

Sunderland's last seven league games read one win, one draw and five defeats, with six goals scored and 14 conceded, while Leeds have won two, drawn four and lost one from the same number of games, scoring nine and letting in six.

The gap in underlying numbers is narrower than the results suggest, though. Sunderland's expected goals figure of 1.52 a game is slightly better than Leeds' 1.42, but they concede 2.07 on the same measure against Leeds' 1.39, which is where the damage is done.

Leeds are in better shape, but they are not a free-scoring side and Sunderland's record at home has not been as bad as their results away from it.

Sunderland are 20th with 4 points from 7 games, two points behind Fulham in 19th and two adrift of Coventry in 18th, the first side above the drop on 6 points. Nobody has fewer points, and their goal difference of -8 is among the worst in the division.

Leeds are seventh on 10 points from 7, level with Brentford in sixth and Everton in eighth, and two points behind Liverpool in fifth. Four points clear of the bottom three, they have a cushion that gives them some freedom.

A home win would lift Sunderland out of the bottom three for the moment and put a first real dent in a miserable run. A defeat would leave them cut adrift on four points, with the gap to safety growing.

For Leeds, a win would take them into the top five conversation. A draw, their favourite result, would keep them comfortably in the pack.

The last 10 meetings are evenly split, with three Sunderland wins, four draws and three Leeds wins. Those games have averaged 1.7 goals, BTTS has landed in four of them (40%), and only two (20%) went over 2.5 goals.

The most recent meeting was a 1-0 Leeds win in the Premier League Summer Series on 30 July 2026. In the league, Sunderland won 1-0 at Elland Road on 3 March 2026, having drawn 1-1 at the Stadium of Light on 28 December 2025.

The pattern is tight, low-scoring football, and nothing about either side's form suggests that will change. Sunderland have scored in only four of their seven league games and Leeds have kept two clean sheets, so goals could be at a premium.

That points towards the under 2.5 goals line, with BTTS No also worth a look, although the 1-1 and 2-2 draws in the recent history are a reminder that stalemates are not guaranteed to be goalless.

The correct score lean is a narrow one, with 1-0 and 0-1 the likeliest outcomes.

The biggest gap between these sides is at the back. Leeds concede 0.86 goals a game over their last seven, Sunderland concede two, and that is more than double.

The second is in front of goal. Leeds score 1.29 a game against Sunderland's 0.86, and have failed to score only once in seven, while Sunderland have drawn a blank in three of theirs.

Shots and possession are near enough level (Leeds 11.86 shots and 47% possession, Sunderland 11.57 and 48.4%), so this is not a game one side will dominate. It will come down to who is more clinical, and the numbers say Leeds.

Corners are also level, with each side averaging just over four a game, which makes the under 9.5 corners line an interesting one.

Leeds have used 3-4-2-1 in four of their seven games and are expected to stick with it.

Sunderland: Roefs; Mukiele, Alderete, Reinildo, Alese; Xhaka, Sadiki; Rigg, Le Fée, Angulo; Brobbey

Leeds: Trafford; Bijol, Elvedi, Muharemović; Justin, Ampadu, Tanaka, Lane; Aaronson, Gudmundsson; Calvert-Lewin

Kick-off is at 4.30pm GMT on Sunday 25 October 2026 at the Stadium of Light. The game is shown live on Sky Sports Premier League, and also streams via Sky Go and NOW.

The value here is with Leeds, who have lost once in seven and face a side with the worst defence in the bottom half and the weakest attack at home. The goals markets are less appealing, with the under 2.5 line short at 4/6, so the match result and a narrow scoreline carry the weight of our selections.