SC Freiburg v Bayern München: Preview, predicted line-ups & Bundesliga tips

Freiburg have started the 2026/27 Bundesliga season in a place they rarely occupy. They sit third on 13 points, one point behind Bayern München and Borussia Dortmund, and they have won all three of their home league games by an aggregate score of 11-2. The visit of the league leaders arrives a week after a 2-1 defeat at Bayer Leverkusen ended a run of three straight wins. Bayern come to the Black Forest on the back of a 6-1 home win over RB Leipzig. They have not lost in the league, but they dropped points at Augsburg (2-2) and Schalke (0-0) on their travels.

Freiburg's record at Europa-Park Stadion is the foundation of their start. The season data shows 3.7 goals per home game and 0.7 conceded, including a 5-0 win over Borussia Mönchengladbach on 12 September and a 4-1 win over Werder Bremen on 30 August. Their last-six record reads four wins, one draw and one defeat, with an average of 1.94 expected goals for and 0.94 against.

However, the away numbers are less comfortable. Freiburg have scored 4 and conceded 4 in three league games on the road, and Bayern's home-and-away split is just as pronounced. Bayern have scored 18 goals in three home games but only 4 in three away, which makes this a test of whether the hosts' home rate can offset the visitors' quality.

Bayern lead the table on goal difference (+17 against Dortmund's +7) after 22 goals scored and 5 conceded in six games. The last-six aggregate shows 24.3 shots per game, 10.3 of them on target, and 69% average possession. For the champions-elect, this is a game to protect an unbeaten league record on the road. Their three away games have brought one win and two draws, with a single clean sheet and one blank, the 0-0 at Schalke on 5 September. Even so, they have conceded only once in each of their two most recent matches, and they scored six against Leipzig a week ago.

Bayern's last six league games produced four wins and two draws with no defeats, scoring 22 and conceding 5, a goal difference that reflects an average of 3.48 expected goals per game. Freiburg's last six brought four wins, one draw and one defeat, 15 scored and 6 conceded, with the loss coming at Leverkusen on 18 October. The surface form favours Bayern, but the splits tell a different story. Bayern's two drops of points both came away from home, and Freiburg's only defeat was on the road. The form data shows the hosts have been a different team at Europa-Park Stadion.

Bayern are first on 14 points from six games, level with second-placed Dortmund and ahead on goal difference. Freiburg are third on 13 points from six, also six games played, level with fourth-placed Leverkusen and 3 points clear of fifth-placed Mainz on 10. Bayern are 1 point ahead of the hosts, so a Freiburg win would take them to the top of the table, at least until Dortmund play.

A home win would put Freiburg on 16 points and give them a 2-point lead over Mainz's current total plus a game in hand over the chasing pack's best teams. A defeat would leave Freiburg on 13, still inside the Champions League places in the snapshot, but exposed to Mainz and Elversberg, both on 10. For Bayern, a win would stretch their unbeaten start to seven games and open a gap over Dortmund.

Bayern have won 8 of the last 10 meetings, Freiburg one, with one draw. Those games average 3.9 goals, with both teams scoring in 60% of them and more than 2.5 goals in 80%. The most recent meeting, on 4 April 2026 at Europa-Park-Stadion, finished Freiburg 2-3 Bayern. Before that, Bayern won 6-2 at the Allianz Arena on 22 November 2025.

The pattern is consistent. Freiburg have scored in the last three meetings, and the 2-2 draw on 1 March 2024 is the only meeting in the five games supplied that Bayern did not win. That points to goals rather than a Bayern clean sheet, with the BTTS and over 2.5 lines the clearest read from the head-to-head. The correct-score market leans towards a Bayern win with a Freiburg goal, such as 3-1 or 3-2, given that Bayern have scored at least two in each of the last four visits.

The biggest gap is in shot volume. Bayern average 24.33 shots per game across their last six, 10.33 on target, against Freiburg's 16.17 and 5.33. The expected-goals numbers tell the same story, 3.48 for Bayern against 1.94 for Freiburg, while both sides concede at almost the same rate (0.92 and 0.94 expected goals against).

The second gap is territory. Bayern average 69% possession and 9.67 corners per game, compared with 52.5% and 5.17 for Freiburg, and the visitors concede only 2.67 corners a game. Freiburg will have to win the game through the transitions rather than sustained pressure, which fits their home scoring record of 3.7 goals per game.

Both sides have used a 4-2-3-1 in all six league games this season and are likely to keep it.

SC Freiburg: Atubolu; Kübler, Ginter, Lienhart, Günter; Eggestein, Höfler; Suzuki, Grifo, Beste; Matanović

Bayern München: Neuer; Stanišić, Tah, Upamecano, Ito; Pavlović, Bischof; Gnabry, Olise, Karl; Kane

Kick-off is at 16:30 GMT on Sunday 25 October, after UK clocks go back that morning. The match is shown on Amazon Prime Video where selected, which holds the UK rights to the Bundesliga this season. A specific channel for this fixture has not been confirmed yet, and this page will be updated closer to kick-off.

The strongest angle in the data is the goals market. Freiburg have scored in every league game this season, Bayern have conceded in four of six, and the last ten meetings produced more than 2.5 goals in eight. Bayern's price is short at 4/11, so most of the value sits in the goals and both-teams-to-score lines, with the correct-score market offering a longer price on the likeliest outcome.