Udinese v AC Milan: Preview, predicted line-ups and betting tips

Udinese have lost five league games in a row, scored nine goals all season and sit one place above the bottom four. Into that walks an AC Milan side that has not lost in Serie A since the campaign began.

The hosts were beaten 3-0 at home by Lecce last Sunday, a result that left them with four points from seven games. It was their fourth home defeat in a row in the league if the draw with Como is set aside, and only two home goals have come at the Friuli all season.

Milan arrive fourth, having beaten Atalanta 3-2 at the San Siro last weekend. Udinese do at least have a recent memory to cling to: they won 3-0 at Milan in April.

Udinese's form reads LLLLL in the standings, and the numbers behind it are poor. They have scored 9 and conceded 16 in seven games, a goal difference of minus seven. They have not kept a single clean sheet.

The home record is the worst part. They have taken one point from four games at the Friuli, with two blanks (0-1 against Cagliari, 0-3 against Lecce) and an average of just 0.5 goals per home game. Away from home they have been more open and more entertaining: seven goals in three games, including a 3-2 win at Monza and a 5-3 defeat at Inter.

The visitors will fancy their chances of exploiting a defence that has conceded in all seven league games.

Milan have won four and drawn three of their seven, scoring 14 and conceding seven. They have kept two clean sheets, both at home, and their record on the road is more cautious: one win and three draws from four away games, with five goals conceded.

They sit four points behind leaders Inter and Lazio, two behind third-placed Roma and a point clear of Como in fifth. Draws at Juventus, Lazio and Sassuolo have cost them ground, and a trip to the division's 16th-placed side is the kind of fixture that has to produce three points if they want to keep pace.

Nine of their 14 goals have come between the 61st and 75th minutes, so Udinese may need to survive the hour mark to have any chance.

Milan's head coach was presented in July and set out his ambition from the start. He said he wants a team that is "beautiful and dominant", according to Sky Sport Italia's report of his first press conference. Milan have averaged 59.7% possession over their seven league games, the highest of the two sides by almost nine points. The Udinese manager is still looking for an answer to the club's slide.

Across their last seven league matches, Udinese have won one, drawn one and lost five. Their only win was 3-2 at Monza on 29 August, and they have lost every game since, conceding 2.29 goals per match. Milan are 4W 3D 0L, with 14 goals scored and seven conceded. The surface form is lopsided. The one caution is that Milan's three draws all came on the road, and Udinese's goals tend to arrive away from home rather than at the Friuli, so this is not a free hit for the visitors. Still, the underlying numbers back the standings: Milan's expected goals for is 1.67 per game against 1.26 against, while Udinese sit at 1.19 for and 2.18 against.

Udinese are 16th with 4 points from seven games and a goal difference of minus seven. They are level on points with Genoa, Fiorentina and Parma, the last two of whom occupy the bottom-four places on goal difference. Bologna in 15th have 5 points, and Cagliari in eighth have 13, so a long way separates them from safety. Another defeat would leave them clinging to the same cushion with the next two sides on four points all playing before they do again.

Milan are fourth with 15 points from seven, four behind Inter and Lazio on 19 and two behind Roma on 17. Como on 14 are the nearest chaser. A win keeps the pressure on the sides above, while a slip would let Como and Frosinone close in.

Over the last 10 meetings, Udinese have won three, Milan five and two have been drawn. Games have averaged 3.1 goals, with both teams scoring in 50% and more than 2.5 goals in 60%. The last meeting was at the San Siro on 11 April 2026, when Udinese won 3-0.

That result looks like an outlier. Before it, Milan had won four in a row against Udinese by an aggregate score of 11-0 across the three most recent, including 3-0 in Udine in September 2025. The pattern is for Milan to win to nil or win by a wide margin, so BTTS has been less certain than the goals line. Over 2.5 has been the safer lean given Udinese's 2.3 goals conceded per game this season, and Milan have scored two or more in four of their seven league games.

The biggest gap is at the back. Udinese concede 2.29 goals per game and an xG against of 2.18, while Milan concede 1.00 against 1.26 xG. Udinese have no clean sheets in seven, Milan have two.

The second is control. Milan average 59.7% possession to Udinese's 51.1%, and they have 4.71 shots on target per game to 3.86. Udinese also concede 5.71 corners a match against 3.14 for Milan, which suggests the visitors will have plenty of pressure in the final third. Udinese's best hope is to hit on the break, since they have scored 7 of their 9 goals away from home.

Udinese: Okoye; Kabasele, Solet, Goglichidze; Ehizibue, Karlström, Zarraga, Zanoli; Ekkelenkamp, Gómez; Davis

AC Milan: Maignan; Tomori, Gila, De Winter; Estupiñán, Rabiot, Modrić, Bartesaghi; Pulišić, Loftus-Cheek; Giménez

The game kicks off at 19:45 GMT on Sunday 25 October (the clocks go back in the UK that morning). It is shown on DAZN where selected, as the rights holder for Serie A in the UK. A UK channel for this specific fixture has not been confirmed, and this page will be updated closer to kick-off if TNT Sports or BBC add it.

The value sits in goals, not just the result. Udinese have conceded in all seven league games and gone over 2.5 in five of seven, while Milan's goals come in clusters after the hour mark. The short price on Milan to win is justified by the gap between the sides, so we pair that with the goals markets and a scorer, Pulišić, who offers a threat from the attacking midfield.