Nottingham Forest v Arsenal: Preview, predicted line-ups & team news

Forest have played three league games at the City Ground this season and have not yet scored there. The season data shows two defeats and a draw, with the goals-for column reading 0 and the home average 0.0 per game. The attacking numbers are not as bleak as the scoreline suggests, since the last-six aggregate puts their expected goals at 1.77 per game and their shots at 17.67, but only five goals have arrived from that output. Arsenal are the next visitors. They sit second in the table, have won five of six, and are 4-2-3-1 specialists with the league's second-best record behind Manchester City. It is the type of fixture where Forest's finishing problem is most likely to be exposed.

Forest's last six league results read one win, two draws and three defeats, which returns five points from a possible 18. Their most recent outing was a 3-1 loss at Crystal Palace on 11 October, and they also drew 2-2 at Liverpool on 29 August.

The defensive record is part of the problem. Forest have conceded eight goals in six games, an average of 1.33 per match, and the season data shows only one clean sheet. Opponents have scored in five of those six matches. Only three of the six have been decided by a margin greater than one goal, so Forest have rarely been out of games, but they have also rarely been ahead in them.

Arsenal arrive with five wins from six, including a 2-1 home win over Leeds on 10 October. Their one defeat was 3-0 at Brighton on 19 September, since when they have not lost. The attacking data is solid rather than spectacular, with 10 goals scored at 1.67 per game, but the defensive figures are stronger: five goals conceded, three clean sheets and an expected goals against average of 0.78 over the last six.

The away record is the one area to watch. Arsenal have won two of three on the road, scoring three and conceding three, with the Brighton game accounting for most of the damage. Away from the Emirates they have averaged 1.0 goals per game, compared with 2.3 at home. However, both of their away wins, came without conceding, and that is the template they will want to follow here.

Forest's last six league results show one win, two draws and three defeats, and two of those defeats have come in their last two games. Arsenal's show five wins, no draws and one defeat. The gap in goals is clear, with Arsenal scoring 1.67 per game against Forest's 0.83, and Arsenal conceding 0.83 against Forest's 1.33. However, the surface form does not tell the whole story for Forest, whose expected goals for figure of 1.77 is almost level with Arsenal's 1.8. Their problem has been converting chances rather than creating them, and in a game where Arsenal are likely to have the majority of possession (59.3% on average against Forest's 49%), those chances may be fewer than usual.

Arsenal are second on 15 points from six games, six points behind leaders Manchester City, who have played seven and have 21 points. They are two points clear of Brighton in third on 13 points, with the same number of games played. A win would extend that cushion and keep them within three points of City, and put them ahead of the pack in the Champions League places.

Forest have 5 points from six games, based on the supplied form data, and have not won at home this season. The table snapshot supplied does not include their exact position, but the points tally is a clear sign they are in the lower half. Another home defeat would extend their winless home run to four games, and would place greater focus on the next few fixtures, while a point against the league's second-placed side would count as a useful result.

Arsenal have won six of the last 10 meetings, Forest two, with two draws. Those games have produced an average of 2.4 goals per match, with 60% of them (six) going over 2.5 goals and only 20% (two) seeing both teams score. The last meeting was a 0-0 draw at the City Ground on 17 January 2026, and before that Arsenal won 3-0 at the Emirates on 13 September 2025.

The pattern in recent years is clear. In the last five meetings Forest have scored in only one, a 1-2 home defeat in January 2024, and Arsenal have kept four clean sheets. The scoring margins suggest the games tend to be either tight 0-0 draws or comfortable Arsenal wins, with the 3-0 results in November 2024 and September 2025 the two most emphatic. With Forest still waiting for a home goal this season, the numbers lean towards BTTS No, and a low total is more plausible than the 60% over 2.5 rate in the full 10-game sample would suggest.

The biggest gap is in shots on target. Arsenal average 5.0 per game over their last six, against 3.83 for Forest, even though Forest take more shots overall (17.67 to 13). That suggests Arsenal's shot selection is better, and it is reflected in the conversion rates: 10 goals from 13 shots per game for Arsenal, 5 from 17.67 for Forest.

The second gap is in expected goals against, where Arsenal's 0.78 compares with Forest's 1.2. Forest have conceded 8 times in six games, and Arsenal have kept clean sheets in half of theirs (three of six). If Arsenal's pressure and control of possession (59.3% against 49%) restrict Forest to the sort of chances they have wasted at the City Ground so far, the home side's goalless run may continue.

Kick-off at the City Ground is at 16:30 BST on Sunday 18 October 2026. A UK broadcaster has not been confirmed for this fixture yet, and this page will be updated closer to kick-off once the channel is verified.

The strongest angle in the data is Forest's inability to score at home. They have scored 0 goals in three league games at the City Ground, and have failed to score in four of the last five meetings with Arsenal, so the numbers point towards backing the visitors and BTTS No. The Over 2.5 market is less clear-cut, because the 60% hit rate in the full head-to-head sample is pulled up by older meetings.