England v Croatia: Wembley hosts unbeaten run and Kane's landmark night

Croatia arrive at Wembley still carrying the memory of Rijeka, where England won 7-0 on 3 Oct. They are unbeaten in the last 6 meetings between the sides, and this is the third meeting in five months, after England's 4-2 win in the World Cup group stage. Harry Kane is set to become England's all-time appearance maker with his 126th cap, and the night also celebrates his Ballon d'Or. Thomas Tuchel's side have the occasion on their side, and Croatia badly need a response.

England have 4 wins and 2 defeats in their last 6 matches in all competitions, 2 points a game. They have won 3 in a row and their Nations League record this season is 3 wins and 1 defeat, the defeat being 3-2 at home to Spain. They sit 2nd of 4 on 9 points from 4 games, goal difference +11.

That tells most of the story, but the underlying numbers are even stronger. Over their last 4 Nations League games England average 3.5 goals scored and 0.75 conceded, with 60.75% possession against Croatia's 39%. That attacking record is why the goals tip leads the card.

There is one caution. Both sides last played 37 days before this match, and England face Spain in Madrid three days later. Tuchel may be tempted to rotate, but Wembley and the Kane milestone suggest a strong side tonight.

Croatia have won 2 and lost 4 of their last 6 matches in all competitions. They have lost 3 in a row and have been conceding regularly. In the Nations League they have 1 win and 3 defeats this season, and sit 3rd of 4 on 3 points from 4 games, goal difference -10.

The motivation is clear. Bilić fronted the pre-match press conference alongside Kovačić, and the message was about answering the Rijeka hammering. Croatia play Czechia at home three days later, so this is also a night to restore some pride before a more winnable fixture.

England have won 4 of those meetings since 11 Jul 2018, Croatia none, with 2 drawn on 90-minute scores. Those games average 3.2 goals, both teams scored in 3 and 3 had three goals or more. That run makes the headline goals line a sensible read rather than a hopeful one.

At home the picture is cleaner still. In their last 3 meetings at home to Croatia, England have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 0. The most recent meeting was the Rijeka romp in the Nations League.

Croatia's best argument is that a result like that is hard to repeat, and mean reversion may hand them a goal. But that result came on top of an unbeaten run, so it looks like the latest evidence of a gap rather than a fluke. Croatia scoring once and England scoring two or more is the shape this fixture keeps taking.

The gaps are wide. England lead on goals scored, goals conceded and shots on target (5.75 v 3), and possession and corners tell the same story, with England on 5.5 corners against 3.

Croatia's goals-conceded figure is the one that decides the goals tip. Kane leads the hosts' line, and Perišić's suspension takes an experienced option away from the visitors, who must also cope without the injured Šutalo.

England v Croatia kicks off at 19:45 GMT on Thursday 12 November at Wembley Stadium. It is live on ITV1 and ITVX, coverage from 19:00.

We expect England to win 2-1. We rate it a home win in the Nations League as the likeliest result, though the visitors have enough in them to find a goal. England have the form and the occasion behind them, while Croatia's defence has leaked in every recent game. Kane's night should end with another winner's story at Wembley.

Prediction: England 2-1 Croatia

Croatia's defence has been leaking goals, and England's attack has been finding the net regularly. Put those together at Wembley and the goals line is our headline tip, with Both teams to score the natural companion.