Monza v Napoli: Preview, predicted line-ups and team news

Monza spent last week showing both sides of their season. They put four past Cagliari on 19 October, then lost 3-2 at Torino on Friday night. That is the pattern all autumn: goals at one end, goals leaked at the other.

Napoli have their own problem. They were at home to AS Roma on Saturday and drew 3-3, a result that kept them in 10th place on 11 points. The champions-in-waiting talk is long gone. Napoli are now trying to string two decent results together.

Both sides need points from this midweek fixture for different reasons. Monza want to open a gap on the bottom three. Napoli want to stop drifting away from the European places.

Monza sit 15th with seven points from eight games, three clear of the relegation zone. They have won two, drawn one and lost five. Their form line reads LLDLWLWL, and the two wins came at home, 2-1 against Sassuolo and 4-0 against Cagliari.

The home record is the one bright spot. Monza have scored eight goals in three home league games, an average of 2.7, and conceded four. Away from home it is a different story, with 14 conceded in five games (2.8 per match) and no wins. Gustavo Varela has been the main source of goals, with seven in seven league appearances, one of them a penalty.

Napoli are 10th on 11 points from eight games, with three wins, two draws and three defeats. They are 7 points behind fifth-placed AC Milan and 9 behind fourth-placed Como. That makes this a game they cannot afford to treat lightly.

The away record is modest: one win, one draw and two defeats from four, with five goals scored and five conceded. Their last away outing was a 1-0 loss at Venezia, who are bottom of the table. Napoli have scored 13 and conceded 10 in all, so the defence is sounder than Monza's by a distance. The issue is a lack of cutting edge on the road.

Over their last eight league games Monza have won two, drawn one and lost five. Napoli have won three, drawn two and lost three. On paper that favours Napoli, but the surface numbers flatter neither side. Napoli have not won in their last two (a 3-3 draw with Roma and the 1-0 defeat at Venezia), while Monza have lost two of their last three. Monza average 1.88 goals per game and concede 2.25. Napoli average 1.63 and concede 1.25. Napoli are in better shape defensively, which is usually the more reliable indicator, but the Venezia result is a reminder that they can still be turned over by a side with nothing to lose.

Monza are 15th on 7 points from 8 games, with a goal difference of minus three. Fiorentina, Parma and Venezia fill the bottom three, and Monza are three points clear of the first of them. Udinese in 17th have four points. A defeat would leave the cushion at three, with the sides below all having a game in hand to close it.

Napoli are 10th on 11 points from 8 games, with a goal difference of plus three. Cagliari in ninth have 13 points, and Torino in eighth also have 13. A win would lift Napoli within two points of that group and keep the top-six conversation alive. A defeat would put Monza four points behind them at best and leave Napoli looking over their shoulder.

The two sides have met six times in the supplied record. Napoli have won four, Monza one and one game was drawn. Those meetings have averaged 2.5 goals. Only one of the six (17%) saw both teams score, and two (33%) went over 2.5 goals. The last meeting was a 1-0 Napoli win at Monza on 19 April 2025.

The pattern is clear: Napoli win, and they usually do it without conceding. They have a record of three wins and a draw in the last four meetings, scoring 7 and conceding 2 over that stretch. The low BTTS rate is at odds with the current form of both teams, because Monza have conceded in seven of eight league games this season. The H2H points towards a tight Napoli win, while the current stats point towards goals at both ends. A 1-2 or 0-2 correct score fits both readings.

The biggest gap is at the back. Monza concede 2.25 goals per game over their last eight and have kept one clean sheet. Napoli concede 1.25 and have three clean sheets. If that holds, Napoli only need to score once to be in control.

The second gap is territory. Napoli average 16.5 shots and 51.3% possession, against Monza's 13.4 shots and 45.1%. Napoli also win the corner count, 5.88 won per game against 4.25. Monza's counter is their attack: 5.6 shots on target per game, against Napoli's 6.0, is closer than the rest of the numbers suggest. Their xG of 1.68 is respectable, so Monza will get chances. The question is whether they can stop Napoli getting more.

The game kicks off at 19:45 GMT on Wednesday 28 October, with the clocks having gone back in the UK on Sunday. A UK broadcaster for this fixture has not been confirmed yet. This page will be updated closer to kick-off once the channel or stream is confirmed.

The value sits in the goals markets, not the result. Napoli are 3/4 to win, which is fair rather than generous, but Monza's home games have produced goals at one end or the other, and Both Teams to Score is 5/8 despite the low rate in the head-to-head. The bet builder leans on Napoli winning and a goalscorer in Varela, whose seven goals come from just 13 shots.