Leeds v Crystal Palace: preview, predicted lineups and score prediction

Crystal Palace arrive at Elland Road in freefall. Three defeats in their last four league games have left the visitors conceding at an alarming rate, shipping 11 goals in that spell including a 1-4 hammering by Manchester City and a 2-3 home defeat to Ipswich. Leeds, by contrast, have not lost a league game all season and go into round five sixth in the table on the back of a 4-1 demolition of Newcastle.

The home side's unbeaten start reads WDDW after four Premier League fixtures, with eight points from a possible twelve leaving them sixth. Sunday's win over Newcastle was their biggest of the campaign, a 4-1 scoreline built on quick transitions after draws with Brighton and Brentford either side of it.

The underlying numbers back up the table position. Leeds have averaged 1.75 goals a game across their last four fixtures against 0.75 conceded, and they have kept a clean sheet along the way. At home specifically this season they have scored five and conceded two across two matches, numbers that will encourage a side looking to make Elland Road count.

For Crystal Palace this is already looking like a difficult opening to the campaign. One win in their opening four league games, at Fulham, sits alongside home defeats to Manchester City and Ipswich and an away loss at Everton. The visitors have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their last four matches and are conceding an average of 2.75 goals a game across that run, a figure that will worry anyone at Selhurst Park regardless of who takes the next away trip.

Leeds go into this one with the division's best defensive record outside the top two, their WDDW form built on a solid platform rather than end-to-end goals. Palace's form line reads LLWL across the same window, the sole win coming away at Fulham sandwiched between three defeats that have exposed a defence shipping goals at nearly three a game. On paper this is as clear a form gap as the fixture list offers this weekend, though Palace have shown they can score, netting in three of their last four.

Leeds sit sixth with eight points from four games, level with Hull City and four points off the automatic Champions League spots occupied by Manchester City and Arsenal. A third win of the season would push them into the top half with real momentum heading into the international break period of fixtures.

Crystal Palace's position is harder to read from the standings snapshot alone given they have played fewer fixtures, but the underlying form, one win in four, sits closer to a relegation fight than anything resembling their usual mid-table comfort. A heavy defeat here would extend a losing sequence that already stands at two from their last three and start to apply real pressure before September is out.

The head-to-head record is dead level across the last 10 meetings between these clubs, three wins apiece and four draws, with an average of 2.8 goals per game and both teams scoring in six of those ten. Over 2.5 goals has landed in exactly half of the meetings. The most recent encounter, in March at Selhurst Park, finished 0-0, but the previous visit to Elland Road in December 2025 produced a 4-1 Leeds win.

That mixed history sits awkwardly alongside the current form gap. Leeds have won the last meeting at Elland Road by three clear goals, and Palace's defensive numbers this season look considerably worse than the ones that produced that 0-0 in March. The head-to-head split says this fixture is a coin flip; the form line into it says otherwise, and the goals markets look the more reliable read than backing the draw simply because history says it happens often enough.

The clearest gap in the underlying numbers is defensive. Palace are conceding an expected goals figure of 2.04 a game in their last four fixtures against Leeds' 0.75 goals actually conceded and 1.51 expected against, a mismatch that points to a defence being carved open regardless of the eventual scoreline. Leeds also have the edge at set pieces, averaging 4.5 corners a game at home against Palace's 2.25 in their recent matches, which should mean more opportunities from dead-ball situations for the hosts.

Leeds have used a back three in each of their three league games so far and there's no obvious reason to change a system that has kept them unbeaten, though two defenders are unavailable through injury. Palace have stuck with the same 3-4-2-1 shape in every league game this season and their team news forces at least two changes from their strongest available XI.

Leeds: Trafford; Bijol, Elvedi, Cresswell; Bogle, Ampadu, Stach, Justin; Aaronson, James; Calvert-Lewin

Crystal Palace: Matthews; Tomiyasu, Richards, Canvot; King, Wharton, Hughes, Mitchell; McNeil, Pino; Larsen

Kick-off at Elland Road is at 14:00 BST on Sunday. Premier League rights this season are split between Sky Sports and TNT Sports, and this fixture is shown on Sky Sports where selected. Viewers without access to the live broadcast can follow updates through Match of the Day highlights and our live blog coverage.

The value in this one sits with the hosts' underlying numbers rather than the headline odds. Leeds have conceded three goals in four league games while Palace have shipped 11 in their last four alone, a gap that should show up in the goals markets as much as the match result. The bet builder below leans on that defensive mismatch rather than backing the draw that the head-to-head history might otherwise suggest.