Fulham v Hull City: Preview, predicted line-ups & team news

Fulham go into this fixture with a run that has no recent precedent in the supplied data. They have lost four of their six Premier League games, drawn the other two and are still waiting for a first win of the 2026/27 campaign. Their last outing was a 2-1 defeat at Ipswich on 10 October, meanwhile, have lost once in six and drew 2-2 with Everton last Sunday, having taken a point at Chelsea by the same score in September. The newly promoted visitors arrive with 9 points and the hosts with 2, which makes a Craven Cottage fixture that looked routine on paper a much more awkward proposition for the home side.

Fulham's problem is at the back. They have conceded 10 goals in six games (1.67 per match), and 4 of those came between the 76th and 90th minutes, according to the season stats. Their recent-form data shows an expected goals against figure of 1.71 per game, so the defensive numbers are not simply bad luck.

The attack has been less of a concern. Fulham average 1.59 xG per game over the same six matches, against actual output of 1.0 goals, and have taken 14.17 shots per game with 4.5 on target. They have also scored in all three home games, producing 5 goals at 1.7 per match. The underlying data suggests the finishing has lagged behind the chances created, though a run of one point from a possible 12 in the last four leaves little room for that argument at the moment.

drawn three and lost one, and their three clean sheets in six games are two more than Fulham's single one. Their 5-4-1 shape has produced two home clean sheets from three at their own ground, though the away record is less secure: they have conceded 4 goals in three road games, an average of 1.3.

The visitors have also been willing to cede the ball. Their recent-form data shows average possession of 32.7%, against 54% for Fulham, and they concede 6 corners per game. However, they have scored in five of six league matches, averaging 1.33 goals, and netted at Chelsea and against Everton, so they are not a side that simply sits in and waits.

Fulham's six league results read L, L, L, D, D, L from the most recent backwards: a record of no wins, L, D, D, W, W, which makes it two wins, three draws and one defeat, and they have not lost in their last three at home. The surface form clearly favours the visitors. However, both 2-2, also show they have conceded chances to better-resourced sides, so the visitors' unbeaten run is not a guarantee of safety.

Fulham sit on 2 points from six games with a goal difference of minus 4 (6 scored, 10 conceded), 6 conceded), which puts them level on points with Leeds in seventh, one point behind sixth-placed Chelsea and Everton in fifth on 10. The 7-point gap between the two sides is the main story of this fixture.

For Fulham, a win would be a first of the season and a sign that the run of three defeats in the last four has not become a settled pattern. A fourth loss in five would leave them with a points deficit that is difficult to close this early.

The supplied summary covers 10 meetings. It records 6 home wins, 3 away wins and 1 draw, an average of 2.5 goals per game, both teams scoring in 40% of the matches and over 2.5 goals in 50%. The last meeting was an FA Cup third-round tie on 7 January 2023 at the MKM Stadium, which Fulham won 2-0. Four of the five most recent meetings in the data went Fulham's way, all by clean sheets: 2-0 in that cup tie

That pattern points to tight, low-margin contests, not to open ones. Four of the five most recent games produced a clean sheet for Fulham, though all were played outside the Premier League and with different squads, so the weight of that record is limited. The 40% BTTS rate in the head-to-head sits below the 67% shown in current league prices, while the 50% over 2.5 rate is close to even. The history therefore leans towards fewer goals, whereas the current-season data, with Fulham conceding at home, leans the other way.

The biggest gap is in possession. Fulham average 54% over their six games, and that should give the hosts the bulk of the ball and a high volume of shots, and 3 of their 6 goals conceded came in the first 15 minutes, so the early stages could be their most vulnerable period.

The second difference is set pieces. Fulham's weakness is late goals: 4 of their 10 conceded came in the last 15 minutes, so a close game could still turn against them.

Kick-off at Craven Cottage is at 15:00 BST on Saturday 17 October. The fixture falls inside the UK Saturday 3pm blackout, so it is not shown live on TV or streaming in the UK. Highlights will be on Match of the Day, and our live blog will carry updates from the game.

The strongest angle is the goals at Craven Cottage. The prices are reasonable on both sides of the argument.