FC Augsburg v Bayern München prediction, lineups & tips

Bayern Munich have scored 14 goals in their last four matches in all competitions, a run that included a 7-0 demolition of Union Berlin. That kind of form arrives at the WWK Arena this weekend with Augsburg sat fourth in the table on the back of their own decent start, a collision between a side quietly punching above expectation and one of European football's most ruthless attacks.

Augsburg have taken 7 points from their opening four Bundesliga games this season, winning two, drawing one and losing one, with the sole defeat a 3-2 loss away to Werder Bremen on 19 September. Before that they beat Eintracht Frankfurt 4-1 on the road and thrashed Schalke 3-0 at home, numbers that explain their fourth-placed position with a goal difference of plus five.

That form has come with goals at both ends. Augsburg have scored 11 and conceded 6 in their last four, averaging 2.75 goals for and 1.5 against per game, with an average of 7.25 shots on target a match. They have failed to score in none of those four fixtures, which is why the hosts will fancy testing a Bayern defence that has otherwise been watertight.

Bayern sit second in the table on 10 points from four games, level on points with SC Freiburg but with a vastly superior goal difference of plus 12. Their recent form reads three wins and a draw, with the only blemish a goalless draw away at Schalke on 5 September sandwiched between a 5-1 win over Stuttgart and that 7-0 rout of Union Berlin.

The underlying numbers are stark. Bayern have conceded just twice in their last four games, an average of 0.5 goals against per match, and have kept two clean sheets in that span. Average possession of 70.5 per cent and 9.5 corners won per game point to a side that dominates territory as a matter of course, not just against the Bundesliga's lesser lights.

Augsburg's record of two wins, a draw and a defeat from their last four tells a story of a team capable of running up a scoreline, as the 4-1 win at Frankfurt showed, but also one still prone to lapses, as in the 3-2 defeat at Werder Bremen. Bayern's three wins and a draw in the same period is the more reassuring read, built on a defence that has shipped only two goals across those four fixtures. The gap in control, not just results, is what should worry the hosts most heading into this one.

Augsburg sit fourth with 7 points from four games, five points adrift of leaders Borussia Dortmund but very much inside the Champions League qualification picture this early in the campaign. Bayern are second on 10 points, two points off top spot but boasting the best goal difference in the division at plus 12. A win for Augsburg would be a statement result that cements their European credentials. For Bayern, anything other than three points would be a rare dent in what has otherwise been a near-flawless start, and would hand Dortmund and Freiburg an opening at the top.

Bayern have dominated this fixture of late, winning 8 of the last 10 meetings to Augsburg's 2, with no draws in that span. The sides have averaged 4.1 goals per meeting, both teams have scored in 7 of the last 10, and 8 of 10 have gone over 2.5 goals. The last meeting, on 24 January 2026 at the Allianz Arena, finished 2-1 to Bayern, while the reverse fixture at the WWK Arena in August 2025 produced a 2-3 away win.

There is little in this record to suggest the pattern is about to break. Augsburg's two wins in the series are both now some distance in the past, and recent meetings have leaned heavily towards goals at both ends rather than Bayern shutting up shop. That 80 per cent over 2.5 rate and 70 per cent BTTS rate line up neatly with the current form of both sides, Bayern banging in goals for fun and Augsburg incapable of keeping a clean sheet, which makes goals at both ends the standout market angle here.

The possession gap tells its own story: Bayern have averaged 70.5 per cent of the ball in their last four games against Augsburg's 39.8 per cent, and that control has translated into 9.5 corners won per game compared to the hosts' 4.75. More tellingly, Bayern's expected goals against sits at just 0.57 per match in that span, while Augsburg have shipped at an average expected goals against of 2.44. If Bayern get anywhere near their recent attacking numbers, Augsburg's defence will be stretched from the first whistle.

Kick-off is at 14:30 BST on Saturday 10 October. A UK broadcaster has not been confirmed for this fixture and this page will be updated closer to kick-off. Sky Sports typically shows one Saturday Bundesliga match as its live pick each week, usually the later 17:30 BST kick-off, which means this early fixture may not be shown live in the UK.

The numbers point overwhelmingly one way here. Bayern have won 8 of the last 10 meetings with Augsburg and arrive having scored 14 goals in four games, but Augsburg's own habit of scoring in every recent outing opens up value beyond a straight away win, particularly in the goals markets.