Everton v Chelsea: Preview, predicted line-ups and team news

Everton have not lost a Premier League game this season, and they have barely won one either. Four draws and two wins from six leave them fifth on 10 points, a record built on a stubborn defence and a habit of scoring late.

Chelsea arrive at Hill Dickinson Stadium with the opposite problem. Xabi Alonso's side hammered Bournemouth 5-1 last Saturday, the best result of his reign so far, but they have conceded in all six league games and are yet to keep a clean sheet.

The visitors have also lost both of their league defeats away from home, 2-1 at Arsenal and 3-0 at Brentford. Merseyside is not an obvious place to put that right.

Everton's form reads WDDDWD, with a 2-2 draw away on 11 October the latest entry. Only one of their six games has gone over 2.5 goals, and they have kept three clean sheets, two of them at home.

They have scored eight and conceded five in total. Three of those eight came in the final 15 minutes, which tells you where they tend to find their edge.

At home they have won two and drawn one, scoring 1.7 per game and conceding 0.7. They are unbeaten in their last six league games, and they have not conceded more than two in any of them.

Chelsea sit sixth on 10 points, level with Everton and Brentford but behind them on goal difference (plus two). Their numbers split sharply by venue. At home they have won two, drawn one and scored 11 goals. Away they have scored four and conceded seven.

João Pedro is the main threat. He has five league goals from 10 shots, six of them on target, and three assists. Seven of Chelsea's 15 league goals have come in the first 15 minutes, so an early Everton wobble would be punished.

Alonso has been in charge of Chelsea since the summer and has spent the international break working on the side's defensive shape. The 5-1 home win gave him his first real statement result, but Everton are a different type of opponent. Few sides in the division have been harder to beat so far.

Everton's last six read two wins, four draws and no defeats, with eight goals scored and five conceded. Chelsea have won three, drawn one and lost two, scoring 15 and conceding 13. On the surface the visitors are the more exciting side, averaging 2.5 goals a game against Everton's 1.3. Underneath, Everton's expected goals figures (1.51 for, 1.38 against) are healthier than Chelsea's (1.40 for, 1.70 against). Chelsea's last away league game was the 3-0 loss at Brentford on 18 September. Everton are the steadier side, and the five-goal win needs treating with caution.

Everton are fifth on 10 points from six games, with a goal difference of plus three. Chelsea are sixth, also on 10 points from six, with plus two. Brentford, fourth, have the same total, and Leeds in seventh are a point further back on nine.

Both sides are only a win or two from the top four, and it is that tight. Three points would lift the winners above Brentford's 10 if results elsewhere allow it. A defeat for Chelsea would leave them with one win in four away from home and the same 10 points as a Merseyside side that has yet to lose.

Chelsea have won four of the last 10 meetings, Everton three and three have been drawn. Games average 2.2 goals, with both teams scoring in just two (20%) and over 2.5 goals in three (30%). The last meeting was Everton's 3-0 win at Hill Dickinson Stadium on 21 March 2026. Before that, Chelsea won 2-0 at home on 13 December 2025.

The pattern is low-scoring games with one side keeping a clean sheet. Chelsea's 6-0 win in April 2024 skews the average. Strip that out and the other four meetings produced five goals in total. This season's numbers suggest more goals than that, given Chelsea's leaky defence, but Everton's own ceiling is low. A 1-1 or a 1-0 are the likeliest scores, and the under 2.5 goals line looks the better reading of the history.

The biggest gap is in goals scored. Chelsea average 2.5 per game and Everton 1.33, yet Chelsea concede 2.17 to Everton's 0.83. That makes Everton the better defensive side by more than a goal a game.

Shots on target are close (5.33 for Chelsea, 5.00 for Everton), and so is possession (47.8% against 47.2%). Everton are marginally ahead on shots overall with 15.83 a game to Chelsea's 13.67. Clean sheets sum it up: Everton have three, Chelsea none. If Everton keep the game tight and wait for a late chance, that is exactly how they have taken their points so far.

Everton v Chelsea kicks off at 12:30 BST on Saturday 17 October at Hill Dickinson Stadium. It is listed as live on TNT Sports in the UK, which means it can be watched on TNT Sports channels and streamed through the TNT Sports app for subscribers. It is not affected by the 3pm blackout because of the early kick-off.

The value sits in the draw and the goals market, not the outright winner. Chelsea are 23/20 to win but have taken one win from three away games, while Everton have drawn four of six. The under 2.5 line at 5/4 matches the history. Both teams to score at 1/2 is short, but Chelsea have conceded in all six.