Crystal Palace v Nottingham Forest prediction, lineups & tips

Crystal Palace's home form has become the story of their season before October is out. Two matches at Selhurst Park have brought two defeats, including a 1-4 beating, and the hosts go into Sunday's game missing four defensive options from one stretched back line: A. Disasi suspended after a red card, T. Tomiyasu and C. Riad both out injured, and first-choice goalkeeper D. Henderson sidelined with a foot problem. Nottingham Forest travel south having lost only once in their last five league fixtures, with their away form in particular standing up well against a Palace side still searching for a first home win of the campaign.

Palace have taken four points from their opening five league games, built on a single win and a single draw against three defeats, and the underlying numbers explain why. Their home average of 3.5 goals conceded per game this season sits well above their away concession rate of 1.3, while a home scoring average of 1.5 has not been enough to compensate. The last-10 aggregate data tells a similar story: an average of 2.2 goals conceded per match across their last five fixtures, against an expected-goals-against figure of 1.89, with only one clean sheet from five.

The absentees compound the problem. Disasi's suspension and the injuries to Tomiyasu and Riad strip out three recognised defensive options in one go, while Henderson's absence in goal adds a further complication at exactly the point Palace need defensive stability most.

Nottingham Forest have taken five points from five games, a single win and two draws measured against two defeats, a record that looks unremarkable until the home/away split is applied. Forest have failed to score in all three of their home league matches this season, averaging 0.0 goals at the City Ground, but on the road the picture flips: two average goals scored per away fixture, with a win and a draw from two trips and no defeats. Selhurst Park represents an away day, and on this season's numbers that is squarely where Forest have looked the better side.

Palace's last five league results read LLWLD, a single win sandwiched between four games without victory, while Forest's LDDWL shows two draws either side of a solitary win and two defeats. Neither side looks fluent on current form, but Forest's underlying numbers from their last five matches are healthier across the board: an expected-goals-for figure of 1.45 against Palace's 1.25, and an expected-goals-against figure of just 0.95 compared with Palace's leaky 1.89. The surface form suggests two mid-table sides treading water, but the data underneath points more clearly towards Forest.

Palace have taken four points from their five league matches so far this season, a return built on one win, one draw and three defeats. Forest sit a place above on the same measure, with five points from five games after a win, two draws and two defeats. Neither side is involved in the early title or European conversations dominating the top of the table, where Manchester City, Arsenal and Brighton have pulled clear, but points are points at this early stage and a Palace defeat would leave them searching for their first home win of the season while a Forest win would extend their unbeaten away record to three matches.

These two have met 10 times in all competitions, and the pattern is strikingly one-sided towards stalemate: eight draws, two away wins and not a single home win in that span. The average of 1.8 goals per meeting sits below the Premier League norm, and the both-teams-to-score rate of 70% contrasts with an over-2.5-goals rate of just 10%, suggesting tight, low-scoring, share-the-points occasions rather than shootouts. The last meeting, in February 2026, finished 1-1 at the City Ground.

That history sits awkwardly alongside this season's form, which points to a bigger gap between the sides than the head-to-head suggests. The draws have been a function of both teams cancelling each other out rather than quality edges, but Palace's home defensive numbers this season are markedly worse than anything in that recent sample, and Forest's away form has markedly improved. The low over-2.5 rate historically argues for caution on the goals markets, even if the current form of both attacks points towards more goals than this fixture has usually produced.

The clearest gap between these sides sits either end of the pitch. Palace's expected-goals-against figure of 1.89 across their last five matches is far worse than Forest's 0.95, a split reflected in actual goals conceded too: 2.2 a game for Palace against 1.0 for Forest. Forest also edge the shot count, averaging 16.4 attempts per match in their last five to Palace's 10.6, even if both sides are close on shots on target. Palace's home record, in particular, is the single biggest exposure: no clean sheets, no wins, and an average of 3.5 goals conceded in two matches at Selhurst Park this season.

Kick-off at Selhurst Park is at 14:00 BST on Sunday. This season's Premier League rights are shared between Sky Sports and TNT Sports, and the fixture is shown on Sky Sports where selected for live broadcast. Viewers without access to either service can follow build-up and reaction through live text coverage.

The widest gap on this card is the one between Palace's home defence and Forest's away form, and that shapes most of the picks below. Forest's unbeaten away record and healthier expected-goals numbers carry the headline tip, but Palace's own scoring record, even in defeats, keeps a route open for value on the goalscorer and goals markets too.