Brentford v Sunderland: Prediction, lineups and tips

Brentford have barely paused for breath since the Premier League season kicked off. Keith Andrews watched his side put three past Tottenham without reply on the opening weekend of home fixtures, and a battling 1-1 draw at Leeds followed before the international break. Sunderland, back in the top flight after almost a decade away, arrive at the Community Stadium having beaten Fulham 1-0 at the Stadium of Light, but this is a different level of test entirely.

Andrews' side sit fifth in the table after two games, level on points with Newcastle and Everton, and their underlying numbers back up the eye test. Brentford have averaged 24 shots per game across their opening fixtures, with an expected goals figure of 2.77 per match, comfortably outstripping what they have actually scored.

The 3-0 win over Tottenham was built on pressing and pace in transition, with Brentford's front three causing problems all afternoon. The 1-1 draw at Leeds was scrappier, but a point on the road against a promoted side chasing an instant top-flight foothold was no disgrace. Brentford have conceded just once in two matches and kept a clean sheet in their solitary home fixture so far.

Sunderland's story is one of quiet progress rather than fireworks. R. Le Bris has overseen a mixed start, a 2-1 defeat at Ipswich followed by a 1-0 win at home to Fulham, but the underlying picture shows a side still finding its feet at this level. Sunderland have averaged 11.5 shots per game so far, less than half Brentford's output, and an expected goals figure of 1.34 per match.

A trip to west London represents a stern early examination of how far Sunderland have come since going up. Another positive result here would do plenty for confidence in a fixture list that only gets harder from here.

Brentford's form reads W1 D1 from two games, unbeaten with four goals scored and one conceded. Sunderland sit at W1 L1, a home win over Fulham either side of an away defeat at Ipswich. On the raw numbers Brentford have the edge, averaging two goals a game to Sunderland's one, and their shot count of 24 per match dwarfs Sunderland's 11.5. The surface form suggests a comfortable home fixture, though Sunderland's win at Fulham shows they can be efficient without dominating the ball.

Brentford are fifth with four points from two games, a goal difference of plus three, and level on points with Newcastle and Everton just above the top four. A win here would put Andrews' side firmly in the conversation for an early European qualification push, however premature that sounds after three fixtures. Sunderland's position in the table is less advanced given their tougher early schedule, and this trip carries obvious risk given the gulf in shot volume between the sides so far this season. Points on the road against a side scoring at this rate would be a significant marker for Le Bris's project, but a defeat would not derail the bigger picture of consolidation in year one back in the top flight.

There is essentially no Premier League history to draw on here. Sunderland were relegated from the top flight in 2016-17, four years before Brentford won promotion in 2021, meaning this weekend's fixture is the two clubs' first meeting in the Premier League. Any previous meetings between them belong to the Championship, a level both clubs have since left behind.

That absence of recent head-to-head data pushes the reading of this match back towards current form and underlying numbers rather than history. Brentford's superior shot volume and expected goals figure this season make them the stronger side on paper, and with no recent meetings to muddy the picture, the markets are likely to lean on that current form gap rather than any rivalry narrative.

The clearest gap between these two sides is in shot volume. Brentford have averaged 24 shots per game to Sunderland's 11.5, more than double, and their expected goals per match of 2.77 comfortably outstrips Sunderland's 1.34. Brentford have also edged the corners count, averaging 6.5 to Sunderland's four. If that pattern holds, Brentford should have enough opportunities to make home advantage count, provided they show more composure in front of goal than their underlying numbers so far suggest they have needed.

Andrews is unlikely to make wholesale changes after the win over Tottenham, with the same front three expected to start. Le Bris has options across midfield but is expected to stick with the side that beat Fulham.

Brentford: Kelleher; Kayode, Collins, Pinnock, Hickey; Janelt, Yarmolyuk, Damsgaard; Lewis-Potter, Wilson, Schade

Sunderland: Roefs; Mukiele, Ballard, Alderete, Reinildo; Xhaka, Rigg; Le Fée, Talbi, Adingra; Isidor

Kick-off is at 15:00 BST on Saturday, which falls inside the traditional UK blackout period. This fixture will not be shown live on TV or streaming in the UK. Highlights will be available on Match of the Day on BBC One later that evening, and readers can follow the action through our live blog on the day.

Brentford's shot volume is the number that stands out most on this card, more than double Sunderland's, and it underpins most of the value across the markets. The goals side of the game looks the more interesting angle than the result itself, with both teams having found the net in one of their two matches so far this season.