Blackburn v Millwall prediction, lineups & tips: Championship clash at Ewood Park

Millwall arrive at Ewood Park full of running after putting four past Bolton without reply last time out. Blackburn go into the weekend having won just once in their last six matches in all competitions, and a third defeat in four games at home on Saturday would pile more pressure on a side already searching for answers.

The contrast in trajectory is stark. Millwall have scored ten goals in five league games this season. Blackburn have managed seven in six, and conceded nine.

Millwall's form reads three wins and two defeats from their opening five league games, with the 4-0 demolition of Bolton on 5 September the standout result. They have kept three clean sheets already this season, two of them at home, and their average of 2.0 goals scored per game in the Championship is the more eye-catching number heading into this fixture.

That form has not been entirely smooth. A 3-0 home defeat to Wrexham and a 5-1 mauling at Southampton both sit in the same run, either side of the Bolton win. The visitors can score goals but they leak them too, averaging 1.6 conceded per game across their last five, so this is not a side built on a watertight defence.

For Blackburn, the picture is bleaker. One win, two draws and three defeats from six league games leaves the hosts with plenty to prove at Ewood Park. Back-to-back losses to Sheffield United and Preston either side of a goalless draw with Lincoln have left the home crowd short on patience.

The underlying numbers back up the eye test. Blackburn's expected goals against of 1.69 per game over their last six matches is among the higher figures in the division, and they have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their three home fixtures this season.

Blackburn's record of one win, two draws and three defeats in their last six league games tells its own story, and three of those results have come in their last four outings. Millwall's three wins and two defeats from five paint a livelier picture, built around goals rather than control, they have scored ten and conceded eight in that spell. The surface numbers favour the visitors, but Millwall's defeats have been heavy, 3-0 and 5-1, which suggests a side capable of both ends of the scoreline on a given afternoon.

Blackburn have taken five points from their opening six league games this season, scoring seven and conceding nine. Millwall have nine points from five games played, with ten scored and eight shipped at the other end. Games in hand aside, Millwall's superior points-per-game rate reflects three wins in five compared to Blackburn's single victory in six. A defeat here would extend Blackburn's winless home run and add early pressure to a season that has started slowly, while three points for Millwall would keep them firmly in the mix at the top end of the division.

The head-to-head record across the last ten meetings shows the home side winning on six occasions, three draws, and the away team winning just once. Average goals per game across those ten meetings sits at 2.8, both teams have scored in 70% of them, and half have gone over 2.5 goals. The most recent instalment went the way of the away side, Millwall winning 2-1 at The Den in March 2026.

That pattern of home advantage in this fixture is worth weighing against current form. Blackburn have won at home before against these opponents, but this season's defensive numbers at Ewood Park suggest that record could be under threat. With BTTS landing in seven of the last ten and goals flowing at both ends of the current league tables for these two sides, the head-to-head history and the present form point in the same direction, expect goals, and expect both teams to get on the scoresheet.

Millwall's average of 2.0 goals scored per game over their last five matches dwarfs Blackburn's 1.17 over their last six, and the expected goals numbers back that up, 1.92 for Millwall against 0.8 for Blackburn. At the other end, Blackburn's expected goals against of 1.69 is considerably higher than Millwall's 1.51, and Blackburn have conceded in every home game they have played this season. Blackburn do hold a slight edge in possession, averaging 53.2% to Millwall's 48.6%, but if they cannot convert that control into the final third, this could be a long afternoon at Ewood Park.

Kick-off is at 15:00 BST on Saturday 12 September 2026. This fixture falls inside the traditional Saturday 3pm blackout and will not be shown live on TV or streaming services in the UK. Highlights will be available on Match of the Day, and fans can follow the action through our live blog.

The goals markets look the way in on this one. Both sides have struggled to keep clean sheets, both average close to two goals a game, and the head-to-head record backs up the trend of goals at both ends. The full breakdown below covers the result, the scoreline and the goalscorer angle.