Alaves v Atletico Madrid: Prediction, lineups & betting tips

Atletico Madrid arrive in the Basque Country on the back of a result that will have raised eyebrows across Spain. A 2-1 win at home to Real Madrid last month has been followed by four more victories, and the visitors travel to Mendizorrotza sitting second in La Liga, just five points off leaders Barcelona. Alaves, by contrast, have won only one of their last five league games and will need a big performance to avoid a sixth defeat of the season to Atletico in their last seven meetings.

Atletico's away form has been the story of their start to the campaign. They have won two of three on the road, scoring six goals away from the Metropolitano, and sit second in La Liga on 16 points from seven games, one point and one place behind Real Betis on goal difference.

The headline result in that run came against Real Madrid, a game the holders needed to win and could not. Atletico have since beaten Osasuna 4-0 and won 3-0 at Real Sociedad before a 3-0 defeat at Athletic Club interrupted the sequence. They responded with a 3-1 win at Sevilla, meaning Alaves face a side that has won five of its last seven in all competitions and scored at least twice in five of those matches.

Alaves sit sixth with 11 points from seven games, a return built largely on home form. Three of their four home league wins have come at Mendizorrotza, including a 5-2 thrashing of Osasuna last month, and they have kept three clean sheets in seven matches this season. But the away-day struggles that have followed them for years persist: a draw at Athletic Club and back-to-back defeats to Valencia and Racing Santander have halted the momentum they built in August. A win here would be only their second over Atletico in their last ten meetings in all competitions.

Alaves arrive on the back of a WDWWLLD sequence in all competitions, two wins, two draws and two defeats from their last six, while Atletico's WDWLWWW reads as five wins from seven with only a single defeat, away to Athletic Club. The gap in confidence is obvious. Atletico have won four of their last five and conceded more than once in just one of those matches, while Alaves have failed to win any of their last three. Home advantage has been Alaves' best asset this season, but it has rarely been tested against opposition of this calibre.

Atletico sit second on 16 points from seven games, level on points with Real Betis in third but ahead on goal difference, and five points adrift of leaders Barcelona who remain unbeaten. Alaves are sixth on 11 points from the same number of matches, five points off the pace Atletico have set and currently occupying the spot that would qualify for the Conference League playoffs.

For Atletico, three points here keeps the pressure on Barcelona at the top and consolidates a Champions League qualifying position this early in the campaign. For Alaves, a result against a side of this stature would be the clearest signal yet that last season's struggles are behind them and that a top-half finish is a realistic target rather than a mid-table ceiling.

Atletico have won six of the last ten meetings with Alaves, against two wins for the hosts and two draws, with an average of 2.1 goals per game and both teams scoring in five of those ten fixtures. The last meeting finished 1-0 to Atletico at the Metropolitano in January, continuing a run in which Alaves have beaten Atletico just twice in a decade of fixtures.

That head-to-head picture favours the bet365 markets leaning away from goals at both ends. Over 2.5 goals has landed in only four of the last ten meetings, a 40% rate, and three of Atletico's last four visits to Mendizorrotza have been low-scoring, tight affairs rather than the kind of statement win their current form elsewhere suggests. History points to Atletico's control rather than a shootout, and little in this fixture's recent past suggests that pattern is about to change.

The gap in quality shows up most clearly in the final third. Atletico are averaging 2.29 goals and 6.43 shots on target per game in their last seven outings, against Alaves' 1.57 goals and 4.43 shots on target. Possession tells a similar story: Atletico have averaged 57.1% of the ball in their recent matches compared to 42.1% for Alaves, who have instead leaned on a disciplined back line and 4.29 corners won per game going forward. Alaves' route to a result here is keeping the game narrow and punishing moments of carelessness, because a stretched, open contest plays entirely into Atletico's hands.

Kick-off is at 15:15 BST on Saturday 10 October. A UK broadcaster for this fixture has not been confirmed, so this page will be updated closer to kick-off with details of where to watch.

Atletico's away numbers this season, two wins and a draw from three trips with 6.43 shots on target per game in recent matches, make them hard to oppose against a side that has lost two of its last three. The value angle is in how tight the h2h has run historically, with the Over 2.5 Goals line having landed in just four of the last ten meetings between these two.