AC Milan v Bologna: Preview, predicted line-ups & team news

Milan arrive at this fixture with a run that has been quietly accumulating. They have gone eight Serie A games without defeat, and Sunday's 2-0 win at Udinese made it five wins and three draws in that spell. Bologna's week was different. They beat Cagliari 2-0 away on 24 October, but that followed a 3-1 home defeat to Inter, and their season has been defined by narrow losses and low scoring. The two sides sit 5th and 13th respectively. Milan also have a squad stretched by absentees, so the question is whether a depleted home side can still impose itself on a visiting team that has taken 8 points from 8 matches.

Milan sit fifth on 18 points from eight games, with a goal difference of +9. Their home record is the stronger part of that: three wins from three, eight goals scored and two conceded. The season data shows an average of 2.7 goals per home game, against 1.6 away.

The timing of those goals is distinctive. Ten of Milan's 16 league goals have arrived between the 61st and 75th minutes, which suggests the hosts tend to wear opponents down rather than score early. However, the same data shows four of their seven conceded goals have come between the 76th and 90th minutes, so late phases have not always been comfortable. They have also failed to score in none of their eight league matches, an unusually consistent return.

Bologna are 13th on 8 points from eight games, with two wins, two draws and four defeats and a goal difference of -2. They have scored 8 goals and conceded 10, and their home record is the weaker one: no wins from four

The visitors are 4 points clear of the relegation zone, where Fiorentina, Parma and Venezia all have 4 points or fewer, so this is not yet a fight for survival. But the away numbers are better than the home ones, with two wins from four and just 3 goals conceded on their travels, a rate of 0.8 per game. That could make them harder to break down than their overall record suggests.

The form data gives Milan five wins, three draws and no defeats from their last eight league matches, with 16 goals scored and 7 conceded. Bologna have won two, drawn two and lost four, scoring 8 and conceding 10. The trend favours the hosts clearly, with an average of 2.0 goals scored per game against 1.0 for the visitors. However, the surface form does not tell the whole story. Three of Milan's draws came away from home against Juventus, Lazio and Sassuolo, and Bologna's two most recent league wins both came away from home, at Cagliari and Lecce. Bologna have also scored in five of their last eight, so they are not a side that is regularly shut out.

Milan are fifth on 18 points from eight games, two behind fourth-placed Como on 20, who have played nine. That leaves Milan with a game in hand on a Champions League place, and a win would take them level on points with Como. They are also 4 points clear of sixth-placed Frosinone, so the Europa League league-stage position looks secure for now.

Bologna are 13th on 8 points from eight games, level with Sassuolo, who have played nine. They are 10 points behind Milan and 4 above the bottom three. A defeat would not change their position much, but another low-scoring loss would keep them within range of the teams below them.

The supplied summary covers ten meetings: five Milan wins, three draws and two Bologna wins, Milan won 1-0 at home in September 2025, and Bologna had won the Coppa Italia final 1-0 at the Stadio Olimpico on 14 May 2025.

The pattern is low-scoring and, recently, Milan-leaning, with three of the last five meetings won by Milan. Bologna's two wins in that sample were both by a single goal, and the 60% rate of games under 2.5 goals suggests the market on goals may lean to the under. However, Milan are averaging 2.7 goals per home game this season, so a repeat of the 1-0 and 3-0 results is as plausible as another tight game. BTTS at 40% points slightly towards a clean sheet for one side.

The biggest gap is in attacking output. Milan average 2.0 goals and 1.91 expected goals per game over their last eight, against 1.0 and 1.32 for Bologna, and they average 5.0 shots on target to the visitors' 3.75. The second gap is territory, with Milan on 59.8% possession and Bologna on 47.8%.

The third is in set pieces, where Bologna have conceded 5.88 corners per game against 3.38 for Milan. That suggests the hosts could spend long spells in the Bologna half. Bologna's own expected goals against is 1.24 per game, so they are not being overrun by a large margin, but Milan's 1.17 and 0.88 goals conceded per game suggest the better defensive base.

Kick-off is at 17:30 GMT on Wednesday 28 October 2026, which is 17:30 UK time following the clocks going back. A UK broadcaster for this fixture has not been confirmed yet, and this page will be updated closer to kick-off once one is verified.

The strongest angle is Milan's home form, with eight goals in three games and only two conceded, against a Bologna side that has scored once or fewer in six of eight league games. The market prices Milan at 8/11, and the numbers support that more than a goals-based bet does. Over 2.5 goals is available at 11/10, but only two of Milan's eight league games have gone over that line, and none of Bologna's have.