Senegal v Iraq prediction, lineups & World Cup 2026 tips

Pape Thiaw's Senegal arrive at BMO Field in Toronto on Friday for their final FIFA World Cup 2026 group fixture in a position they had no business being in. Two losses from two, 3-1 to France and 3-2 to Norway, have left the Lions of Teranga needing to beat Iraq and hoping goal difference does enough to carry them through as one of the eight best third-placed sides. A win alone may not be enough. Thiaw's side have conceded five times in those two outings and produced nothing close to the level expected of Africa's second-ranked team.

After the Norway defeat, Thiaw was direct about it. "We are now going to review the match, draw all the necessary lessons from it and correct our mistakes to make sure we do not repeat them," he told reporters. That "tactical rethink" now has 90 minutes to prove itself.

Iraq, meanwhile, have long since resigned themselves to elimination. Graham Arnold's side lost 4-1 to Norway on matchday one and were beaten 3-0 by France in matchday two, conceding seven goals and scoring one across their first two Group I fixtures. Their only goal at this tournament came from their top scorer Aymen Hussein. For Iraq, the last game of their first World Cup since 1986 is a matter of pride.

Senegal's form across three Group I fixtures tells a stark story. They have averaged 2.67 goals scored per game but conceded 2.0 per game, a sign of a side that can create but cannot hold a lead. Iraq have managed just 0.5 goals per game at this tournament, with an xG of only 0.72 per match, and have shipped 3.5 goals per game conceded. In short, Arnold's side offer almost no attacking threat. Senegal's average of 16.7 shots per game and an xG of 1.78 in attack suggests the creative quality is there; the issue has been defensive organisation and, to a degree, finishing efficiency.

Thiaw replaced Aliou Cissé as Senegal boss in late 2024 and guided the squad through an unbeaten World Cup qualifying campaign in which they took 24 points from a possible 30. The talent is unquestionable: Sadio Mané, Ismaila Sarr, Kalidou Koulibaly and Pape Matar Sarr all feature in a squad packed with European-based quality. Against Norway and France, that talent did not transfer to the pitch consistently. Friday is their last chance to show it.

Senegal v Iraq kicks off at 20:00 BST on Friday, 26 June 2026 at BMO Field, Toronto. The match is broadcast live in the UK on ITV1 and is available to stream via ITVX. In the United States, coverage is on Fox Sports and Telemundo, with streaming on Fubo.