AC Milan v Bologna: Preview, predicted line-ups & Serie A tips

Milan arrive at midweek with a record that few sides in Serie A can match. They have not lost in eight league games, and on Sunday they won 2-0 at Udinese, who have lost all five of their recent matches. That result kept them fourth, level on 18 points with Roma and four behind the leaders Inter and Lazio.

Bologna come in with a different mood. They beat Cagliari 2-0 away on Saturday, but that was only their second win in eight league games. The previous weekend they lost 3-1 at home to Inter. The visitors sit 13th on 8 points, and a trip to San Siro offers little chance to build on one good result.

Milan's league form since the start of the season reads five wins and three draws from eight, with 16 goals scored and 7 conceded, according to the supplied form data. Their home numbers are the stronger half: three wins from three at San Siro, eight goals scored and two conceded, which works out at 2.7 scored per home game. Ruben Amorim is in charge, and he is expected to name the same core that beat Atalanta 3-2 and Udinese 2-0.

The underlying numbers back up the results. Milan's recent average xG is 1.91 for and 1.17 against, with 59.8% possession and five shots on target per game. However, the draws at Sassuolo, Lazio and Juventus show they can drop points when the game is tight, and 4 of their 7 goals conceded have come between the 76th and 90th minutes.

Bologna's problem is at the other end of the pitch. They have scored 8 goals in 8 league games (1.0 per match) and failed to score three times, while the recent-form data shows an average xG of 1.32 for and 1.24 against. At home they have no wins from four, with two draws, two defeats, four goals scored and seven conceded.

The visitors are four points clear of 18th-placed Fiorentina, so the relegation fight is close but not immediate. Their away record is better than their home one: two wins from four, three goals conceded. Raffaele Palladino is named as their coach in the latest pre-match reports from Milan's side, and the visitors are likely to sit deep and look for a break. That approach carried them at Cagliari, though Milan average 3.13 corners and 13.13 shots per game and are more likely to be patient.

Milan's last eight league results show five wins, three draws and no defeats, with 16 goals for and 7 against. Bologna's read two wins, two draws and four defeats, with 8 scored and 10 conceded. The gap is clear, but the surface form slightly flatters both sides' extremes. Milan's three draws all came away from home, against Sassuolo, Lazio and Juventus, and Bologna's two wins have come on the road, at Lecce and Cagliari. That suggests Bologna are not as poor as their league position suggests when they can play on the counter. The home side's possession edge (59.8% against 47.8%) is what the visitors will have to absorb.

Milan are fourth with 18 points from 8 games, a Champions League league-stage place on the current table. They are level on points with third-placed Roma on goal difference (+9 against +13), one point ahead of fifth-placed Como on 17, and four behind Inter and Lazio on 22. A win would move them to 21 and keep the leaders in sight; a draw would leave Como within a point of overtaking them.

Bologna are 13th with 8 points from 8 games, level with 14th-placed Sassuolo and one place and five points behind 9th-placed Cagliari. They are four points clear of the relegation places, where Fiorentina, Parma and Venezuela... Venezia sit on 4, 4 and 3 respectively. A defeat would leave Bologna only a win from being drawn into that group, while a point would be a reasonable return given their home record.

The last ten meetings show five Milan wins, three draws and two Bologna wins, with an average of 2.2 goals per game. Both teams have scored in 40% of them (four of ten) and the same share have gone over 2.5 goals. The most recent meeting was a 3-0 Milan win at Bologna's ground on 3 February 2026. Before that, Milan won 1-0 at San Siro on 14 September 2025.

The pattern is lower scoring than the market price might suggest. Milan's recent wins in the fixture came by clear margins (3-0, 1-0, 3-1), and Bologna's two victories were a 2-1 league win in February 2025 and a 1-0 win in the Coppa Italia final. With a 40% rate for both BTTS and over 2.5, the head-to-head leans slightly towards a game with fewer than three goals and a Milan clean sheet, which fits Bologna's recent scoring problems.

The biggest gap is in goals per game. Milan average 2.0 over their last eight league games against 1.0 for Bologna, and the xG figures (1.91 against 1.32) suggest that difference is not just finishing. Bologna have also failed to score three times, while Milan have scored in every league game.

The second gap is territorial. Milan's average possession of 59.8% compares with 47.8% for Bologna, and the visitors concede 5.88 corners per game, against 3.38 for Milan. That points to Milan spending long periods in the final third. Bologna's best route is through the 61st to 75th minute, where they have conceded three of their ten goals, but Milan also scored 10 of their 16 in that same window, so it cuts both ways.

AC Milan: Maignan; Tomori, De Winter, Pavlović; Estupiñán, Jashari, Musah, Bartesaghi; Pulišić, Modrić; Ramos.

Bologna: Skorupski; De Silvestri, Vitík, Casale, Miranda; Ferguson, Pobega; Cambiaghi, Odgaard, Bernardeschi; Dovbyk.

Kick-off is at 17:30 GMT on Wednesday 28 October 2026 (18:30 in Italy). The match is on DAZN, which has exclusive live coverage in Italy, and in the UK it is shown on DAZN where selected. No UK free-to-air or TNT Sports broadcast has been confirmed for this fixture, and this page will be updated if that changes.

The strongest angle is the gap in scoring, but the prices on the result are short, so the value is in the goals markets. Bologna have scored a single goal or fewer in five of their eight league games, and the head-to-head shows only 40% of meetings reaching three goals. The picks below lean towards a controlled home win rather than an open game.