Hull City v Brentford: Preview, predicted line-ups & team news

Hull City arrive at this fixture with the look of a side that has settled into the division without quite finding a way to win in it. They have drawn three of their seven league games, lost two of the last three and sit tenth on nine points. The most recent of those defeats came 1-0 at Fulham on 17 October, a game in which Hull failed to score for the second time this season. Brentford are one place above them, unbeaten away from home in three trips but without a single away win. Their last outing was a 2-1 home defeat to Liverpool. The question on Sunday is whether Hull's home record, one win and two draws from three, can hold against a side that has scored in every league game it has played.

Hull's season numbers suggest a side built to stay compact. The season stats show them lining up in a 5-4-1 in all seven league games, scoring 8 goals and conceding 7. They have kept three clean sheets, two of them at home, and conceded only 2 goals in three games at the MKM Stadium, an average of 0.7 per game.

The weakness is the start of matches. Three of their seven goals conceded, 42.86%, have come in the first 15 minutes, according to the season data. Hull have also averaged just 3.71 corners for and 6.57 against over their last seven, which indicates how much of the ball they are conceding.

Brentford sit sixth on 10 points from seven games, level with Leeds and Everton, and have a goal difference of +5. The season stats show 13 goals scored, an average of 1.9 a game, and no failed-to-score games. Their away record is the oddity: three draws from three, with 5 goals scored and 5 conceded. Liverpool are fifth on 12 points, so a win would move Brentford level with them. Brentford's discipline has been a feature too. Two red cards have been recorded this season, which has left them short in midfield for this game.

The form data gives Hull two wins, three draws and two defeats from their last seven league games. The wins came against Manchester United (2-0, at home) and Coventry (1-0, away) in August, and the record since is one point from the last two. Brentford have won two, drawn four and lost one, with the home wins over Tottenham (3-0) and Chelsea (3-0) the standout results. Brentford have the better goal numbers, scoring 13 and conceding 8 against Hull's 8 and 7. But the underlying data points the same way as the table. Hull's average of 0.97 expected goals for is the weaker figure, and that surface similarity of draws may overstate how evenly matched the sides are.

Brentford are sixth on 10 points from seven games, one point and four places above Hull, who are tenth on nine points from seven. Ipswich, on 10 points from eight, sit between them. Liverpool are fifth on 12 points, so Brentford are two points off that place and Hull are three away from it.

Hull also have a cushion at the bottom. Coventry are 18th on six points, three behind Hull, and the bottom three are separated from the middle by only a few points. A home win would lift Hull above Brentford into at least eighth, depending on other results. A Brentford win would stretch the gap to four points and keep them within reach of the top five.

The supplied summary covers eight meetings, with Hull winning four, Brentford two and two drawn. The average is 3.38 goals per game, with both teams scoring in 63% and over 2.5 goals in 38%. The last meeting was on 1 February 2020, when Brentford won 5-1 at the KCOM Stadium in the Championship.

That history is a long way from the current sides, since every meeting came in the Championship between 2017 and 2020. The goals average is inflated by two 5-1 results, and over 2.5 in only three of eight meetings suggests the goals line is the more cautious market. The 63% BTTS rate is close to the 8/13 on offer for both teams to score, but Hull's season data shows seven league games with fewer than 2.5 goals, which pulls the other way.

The biggest gap is in chance volume. Brentford average 15 shots and 4.14 on target over their last seven league games, against 10.71 and 3.43 for Hull. The expected-goals gap, 1.69 against 0.97, tells the same story.

Possession is the second difference. Brentford average 44.7%, which is modest, but Hull's 31.3% is among the lowest figures a side can record and leaves them defending for long spells. That is reflected in corners conceded, 6.57 a game for Hull against 5.14 for Brentford. Hull's defensive record has still held up, with three clean sheets. But Brentford's expected goals against of 1.46 is almost identical to Hull's 1.49, so the visitors are not especially secure at the back either.

Hull are expected to stay with the 5-4-1 they have used in all seven league games, though a lengthy injury list limits their options in defence and midfield. Brentford normally use a 4-2-3-1, and with two midfielders suspended the holding midfield pairing is the main selection question.

Hull City: Tzolakis; Norton-Cuffy, Ajayi, Egan, McNair, Herrington; Belloumi, Iroegbunam, Morita, Ömür; McBurnie.

Brentford: Kelleher; Kayode, Ajer, Collins, Lewis-Potter; Jensen, Sangaré; Schade, Damsgaard, Ouattara; Thiago.

Kick-off is at 14:00 GMT on Sunday 25 October, the day the clocks go back in the UK. The game is shown on Sky Sports where selected, and the Premier League's competition-level rights this season also include TNT Sports. A specific channel has not been confirmed yet, and this page will be updated closer to kick-off.

The strongest angle is the gap in chance creation, with Brentford's 1.69 expected goals a game against Hull's 0.97 over the last seven league games. bet365 has Brentford at 7/10, Hull at 4/1 and the draw at 4/1. The goals markets are less clear cut, because Hull's season data shows no league game above 2.5 goals while Brentford's recent games have been more open. The picks below lean towards a narrow away win.