Nottingham Forest v Arsenal: Preview, predicted line-ups & Igor Jesus injury update

Forest's home record this season makes uncomfortable reading. Three league games at the City Ground have produced no goals, one draw against Tottenham and two 1-0 defeats, by Leeds and Coventry. They arrive on Sunday after a 3-1 loss at Crystal Palace, with five points from six matches and a goal difference of minus three on the season's numbers.

Arsenal are the visitors who have the most to lose from a slip. They sit second on 15 points, three behind Manchester City, and the standings show five wins from six. The kick-off is 4:30pm on Sunday 18 October, and the early evidence suggests Forest will need to solve a scoring problem against one of the league's tighter defences.

Forest's last six league results read L, D, D, W, L, L, with the most recent being the defeat at Palace. The one win came away, 2-1 away from home on 12 September, and the 2-2 draw at Liverpool on 29 August is part of an away record that has produced five goals from three games, an average of 1.7. At home the average is 0.0.

The recent-form data does hold some encouragement. Forest average 17.67 shots per game over their last six, with 3.83 on target and 1.77 expected goals, so the chances are being created. However, they have scored only 0.83 per game and failed to score in three of the six, which suggests a finishing problem more than a creative one. They have also conceded 1.33 per game and have a single clean sheet.

Arsenal's league form is five wins from six, the exception being a 3-0 defeat at Brighton on 19 September. They have since beaten Leeds 2-1 at the Emirates, and the home record is three wins from three with seven goals scored. Away from home the returns are quieter, with three goals in three games, two wins and the Brighton loss.

The defensive numbers stand out. Arsenal have conceded five league goals, an average of 0.83, and the recent-form aggregate shows 0.78 expected goals against per game with three clean sheets from six. They also average 59.3% possession. A win would keep them within touching distance of City at the top, while a draw would be their first of the season.

Forest's last six league games return one win, two draws and three defeats, with five goals scored and eight conceded. Arsenal's return five wins, no draws and one defeat, with ten scored and five conceded. The gap in shape is clear, and the most recent results reinforce it: Forest lost 3-1 at Palace on 11 October, while Arsenal beat Leeds 2-1 the previous day. The surface form might slightly overstate the difference, though. Forest's shot count of 17.67 per game is higher than Arsenal's 13, and their 1.77 expected goals for is level with Arsenal's 1.80, so the hosts have been unlucky in front of goal as well as wasteful.

Arsenal are second with 15 points from six games, three behind leaders Manchester City on 18 and two ahead of Brighton in third on 13. The goal difference is plus five, the lowest of the top three. Forest have five points from six games, ten fewer than Arsenal, and no games in hand on either side in the supplied snapshot.

For Arsenal, a win would keep the pressure on City and open a gap over the chasing group, while a draw or defeat would let Brighton close up. For Forest, a win would be their first at home this season and end a run of three defeats in four. A further loss would leave them with five points from seven games and an early-season gap to make up.

The last 10 meetings show six Arsenal wins, two Forest wins and two draws, with an average of 2.4 goals per game. Both teams have scored in only 20% of those matches, while 60% have finished over 2.5 goals. The most recent meeting was a 0-0 draw at the City Ground on 17 January 2026, and Arsenal won 3-0 at the Emirates on 13 September 2025.

The pattern is that Arsenal either win cleanly or the game stalls. Of the five meetings in the supplied data, none produced goals at both ends, and the City Ground fixtures on 26 February 2025 and 17 January 2026 were both goalless. That points towards the No in the BTTS market, and towards a low-scoring result rather than a high-scoring one, though the 60% over 2.5 rate over ten games shows that Arsenal's home wins have lifted the average. With Forest not yet having scored at home this term, a repeat of the clean-sheet pattern is the likelier outcome.

The biggest gap is at the back. Arsenal concede 0.78 expected goals per game over their last six and have three clean sheets, while Forest concede 1.20 expected goals and have one. Possession is the second gap: Arsenal average 59.3% against Forest's 49%, and Arsenal put 5.00 shots on target per game against 3.83.

The counterpoint is volume. Forest take 17.67 shots per game against Arsenal's 13, which could be a sign of a side shooting from poor positions, since only 3.83 of those hit the target. If Forest convert even a fraction better than their 0.83 goals per game, the match is closer than the table suggests. Arsenal's 1.67 goals per game against Forest's 0.83 is the gap that most favours the visitors.

Forest have used a 3-4-2-1 in all six league games and are likely to keep it, with the main question being whether Milenković is fit enough to start in the back three. Arsenal's 4-2-3-1 is likely to continue, with Mosquera expected to cover in defence given the absences of two senior defenders.

Nottingham Forest: Sels; Jair, Murillo, Netz; Aina, Sangaré, Domínguez, Williams; Gibbs-White, Hudson-Odoi; Wood.

Arsenal: Raya; White, Mosquera, Gabriel, Calafiori; Rice, Zubimendi; Saka, Ødegaard, Eze; Gyökeres.

Kick-off at the City Ground is 4:30pm BST on Sunday 18 October 2026. The match is shown on Sky Sports where selected, and NOW lists it as available to stream live with a NOW Sports Membership. It is not a 3pm Saturday kick-off, so the UK blackout does not apply.

The strongest angle in the data is a low-scoring Arsenal win. Forest have not scored at home this season, Arsenal have the better defensive numbers by a clear margin, and the last two City Ground meetings both finished 0-0. The risk sits in Forest's shot volume, which suggests the hosts are due a goal at some point.