Brighton v Crystal Palace: Preview, predicted line-ups & team news

Brighton are third in the Premier League and playing like it. They have scored 18 goals in six games, they have beaten Arsenal 3-0 at the Amex and they won 5-0 at Coventry. Palace are the next visitors, and they are a side still finding their feet under a new regime.

The visitors beat Nottingham Forest 3-1 at Selhurst Park last Sunday, which ended a run of one win in their previous five. That result has not changed the underlying numbers. Palace have conceded 12 goals in six league matches, and Brighton are the sort of side that punishes that.

Brighton's form reads W-W-W-D-L-W across their last six, with the defeat a 4-3 loss at Chelsea on 30 August. Since then they have drawn 1-1 with Leeds, beaten Coventry 5-0 away, beaten Arsenal 3-0 at home and won 2-0 at Sunderland last Saturday. They have 13 points from six and a goal difference of plus 13.

The home record is the stronger part of that. Brighton have won two and drawn one at the Amex, scoring 8 and conceding 1. They average 2.7 goals per home game and 0.3 against. Their recent-form numbers back it up, with 18 shots per game, 5.5 on target, 60.2% possession and an expected goals figure of 2.15 per match.

Palace have won two, drawn one and lost three of their six, and have 7 points. They have scored 9 and conceded 12, and have failed to score twice. Their home record is the problem: two defeats from three at Selhurst Park, with 8 goals conceded, an average of 2.7 per game.

Their away form is steadier. One win, one draw and one defeat on the road, with 4 goals conceded in three games and a 3-2 win at Fulham on 5 September. The visitors line up in a 3-4-2-1, and they average just 43% possession. They will sit deep and look to hit Brighton on the break, which is how they have beaten them in recent meetings.

Brighton have won four, drawn one and lost one of their last six league games, scoring 18 and conceding 5, with four clean sheets. Palace have won two, drawn one and lost three, scoring 9 and conceding 12. The gap in shot volume is stark: Brighton average 18 shots per game to Palace's 11, and 5.5 on target to 4.17. Palace's win over Forest was their best result for a month, but one result does not offset an expected goals against figure of 2.13 per game. Brighton's one blemish, the 4-3 defeat at Chelsea, came on the road.

Brighton are third on 13 points from six games, two behind second-placed Arsenal on 15 and three clear of Brentford, Everton and Chelsea, who all have 10. Manchester City lead the way on 18 points with a perfect six wins. A win would put Brighton within two points of the top two and keep them in the Champions League places.

Palace's seven points come from the same six games, so a win would take them to 10 and into the group around fifth. A defeat would leave them with two wins from seven and, given their goals against record, would raise serious questions about how much improvement is realistic in the short term.

The last 10 meetings split Brighton 2 wins, Palace 3 and 5 draws. Those games average 2.2 goals. Both teams have scored in 7 of the 10 (70%), but only 3 have gone over 2.5 goals (30%). The last meeting was at the Amex on 8 February 2026, when Palace won 1-0. Before that came a 0-0 draw at Selhurst Park on 9 November 2025, a 2-1 Palace win on 5 April 2025 and a 3-1 Palace win at the Amex on 15 December 2024.

Palace have not lost in the last four. But that run covers a different Brighton, and the current side is scoring at a rate that H2H averages do not capture. Palace's low-scoring habit with Brighton suggests a tight first half, while the BTTS rate of 70% is the more reliable guide for the betting markets. The 30% over 2.5 rate is the number to treat with caution, since Brighton have gone over 2.5 total goals in four of their six this season.

The biggest gap is at the back and in shot volume. Brighton concede 0.83 goals per game on average, Palace concede 2.0. Brighton have 4 clean sheets in six, Palace have 1. Then there is possession: Brighton average 60.2% against Palace's 43%. Palace also win just 2.83 corners per game, against Brighton's 5.33.

Palace's route is early goals. Brighton have conceded 4 of their 5 league goals in the first 15 minutes, which is 57% of their total. If the visitors get one in the opening quarter of an hour, the game changes. If not, Brighton's pressure should tell.

Brighton have played a 4-2-3-1 in all six league games and Palace a 3-4-2-1. Neither side looks likely to change shape, though Brighton are short of options on the wings, which leaves a decision on who plays on the flanks.

Brighton: Verbruggen; Costinha, Dunk, Vušković, Kadıoğlu; Groß, Boscagli; Ayari, Hinshelwood, Gómez; Kostoulas

Crystal Palace: Henderson; Richards, Lerma, Canvot; Mitchell, Wharton, Hughes, Mingueza; Pino, Sarr; Mateta

Brighton v Crystal Palace kicks off at 14:00 BST on Sunday 18 October. The Premier League's UK rights are held by Sky Sports and TNT Sports, and the game is shown on Sky Sports where selected. A specific channel for this fixture has not been confirmed yet, and this page will be updated closer to kick-off. Live updates will be on our live blog.

The value here sits in Brighton's goals rather than the price on the result. They have gone over 2.5 goals in four of six, Palace have conceded 12, and the visitors have scored in four of their six. That makes a home win with goals at both ends the likeliest script, and it is the one the builder below leans on.