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Millwall v Newcastle United prediction: EFL Cup third round preview, lineups & odds

A. Neil's Millwall host a much-changed Newcastle at The Den in the EFL Cup third round, with E. Howe's side favourites despite a defence in transition.

Mike Ifftner
Published
Mon 7 Sept, 17:47
Updated
Mon 7 Sept, 23:29

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Third round hook

Millwall's reward for beating Cambridge United in an earlier round of this season's EFL Cup is a home tie against Premier League opposition, with Newcastle United arriving at The Den for a third round fixture that carries little league weight but a great deal of squad-management significance for both sides. A win takes Millwall into the last 16 of a competition in which they reached the quarter-finals as recently as 1994-95 but have not progressed past the third round since, having gone out on penalties to Crystal Palace at this stage last season. For Newcastle, still adjusting to life under a new head coach, it is an early chance to build momentum in a season already complicated by the departures of several first-team regulars.

BET FOOTBALL
MillwallMillwall
0–1
Full time
NewcastleNewcastle
Tue 8 Sept, 20:00•The Den

Path to the third round

Millwall's route to this stage included a 1-0 win away at Cambridge United, a result that sits alongside two Championship losses and a heavy 4-0 win over Bolton Wanderers as evidence of an inconsistent start under A. Neil. The Lions sit seventh in the Championship on nine points from five games, having scored 10 and conceded eight, a goal difference that reflects games at both extremes rather than settled form. Newcastle's own cup run has been more comfortable on paper. Their most recent cup outing, a 3-2 win at home to West Bromwich Albion, came from a team showing considerably more attacking intent than defensive discipline, registering 16 shots and 57% possession but also shipping two goals of their own.

Rotation context

A. Neil made changes from the side that beat Bolton for the visit of a Premier League club, with Danny Batth, Jake Cooper and Elkan Baggott among those pushed into contention at the back, while Jenson Metcalfe, Luke Cundle and Alfie Massey look set for midfield roles and Lyndon Dykes is expected to lead the line. Newcastle's rotation is shaped as much by absence as by choice this early in the Jaissle era, with the head coach still without several senior defenders and forced to lean on a younger core in a competition his club has not always prioritised under previous management.

Last 1 meetings · most recent first
  1. 8 Sept 26Millwall0–1NewcastleNewcastle
Home wins
0
Draws
0
Away wins
1
Goals · H / A
0 / 1

Line-ups

MillwallMillwall4-2-3-1
  • 34GF. Marschall
  • 2DJ. Osei-Tutu
  • 6DC. Taylor
  • 5DJ. Cooper
  • 12DE. Baggott
  • 16MD. Kelly
  • 14MJenson Metcalfe
  • 11MR. Esse
  • 10MC. Neghli
  • 13ML. Dykes
  • 29FZ. Lovelace
Manager · A. Neil
NewcastleNewcastle4-2-3-1
  • 21GL. Horníček
  • 37DA. Dedić
  • 5DF. Schär
  • 4DS. Botman
  • 3DL. Hall
  • 6MNico González
  • 41MJ. Ramsey
  • 23MJ. Murphy
  • 28MJ. Willock
  • 11MH. Barnes
  • 9FY. Wissa
Manager · Matthias Jaissle

Where to watch

Kick-off is at 20:00 BST on Tuesday 8 September, with the tie shown on Sky Sports, where selected, and confirmed listings pointing to Sky Sports Main Event carrying live coverage. If the scores are level after 90 minutes, EFL Cup rules dictate the tie goes straight to a penalty shoot-out, with no extra-time period played at this stage of the competition.

Cup stats

  • Millwall have not progressed beyond the third round of the EFL Cup since reaching the quarter-finals in 1994-95, form data shows.
  • Millwall lost on penalties to Crystal Palace at the third round stage of last season's competition.
  • Newcastle's most recent cup outing produced a 3-2 win from 16 shots and 57% possession, the recent-form data shows, with seven of those shots on target.
  • Millwall's most recent cup win, 1-0 away at Cambridge United, came from an average of 7.5 shots and an xG of 2.04 across their last two outings in all competitions.
Headline prediction · our pick
✓ HitConfidence · medium

match result: newcastle to win

Newcastle's average of 16 shots and 57% possession in their last cup outing points to a squad capable of controlling territory even with key absentees, and that underlying quality should tell at The Den. However, conceding twice in that same match, with an average of 2 goals against per game on the recent-form data, suggests Millwall's home crowd and a well-organised back three could make the visitors work for it. The numbers lean towards a narrow away win with goals at both ends rather than a comfortable Newcastle procession.

Best Price4/5bet365 · score 1-2
✓ Prediction landed
TIP 01✗ Miss

Correct Score: 1-2

Newcastle's away form under Jaissle remains a work in progress, and their last cup match produced a 3-2 scoreline that hints at defensive fragility even in victory. A tight 1-2 reflects Millwall's own attacking return of 1 goal per game at home and the visitors' shot volume advantage.

TIP 02✗ Miss

Over 2.5 Goals: Over

Newcastle's last outing produced an over 2.5 result on the recent-form data, while Millwall's cup form has stayed under that mark in their last two games. The gap in attacking intent between the sides, with Newcastle averaging 16 shots to Millwall's 7.5, points towards goals rather than a stalemate.

TIP 03✗ Miss

Both Teams to Score: Yes

Both sides have found the net in their most recent cup fixtures, with Millwall's average of 1 goal per game at home a modest but consistent return. Newcastle's own defensive numbers, conceding twice in their last match, suggest Millwall's front line will get chances at The Den.

TIP 04✗ Miss

Anytime Goalscorer: Yoane Wissa

Wissa figures to lead Newcastle's forward line in the absence of Osula, and the visitors' 16 shots in their last cup tie underline the volume of chances a front player could expect to see. He remains the most likely source of goals from a reshaped Newcastle attack.

TIP 05✓ Hit

Double Chance: Away or Draw

Given the gulf in resources between a Championship side managing rotation and a Premier League visitor even shorn of Burn, Joelinton and Osula, avoiding defeat looks the more probable outcome for Newcastle on the balance of the numbers. It is the safer route into the draw for the last 16 without demanding a specific scoreline.

Build the Millwall v Newcastle bet

BetFootball Builder · 3 Legs✗ Miss
Away Win
✓ Hit
Match Result
4/5

The base leg reflects Newcastle's greater shot volume in their last cup tie, 16 attempts against Millwall's 7.5 across their last two games. It anchors the builder around the higher-quality squad's underlying numbers.

Yes
✗ Miss
Both Teams to Score
4/5

This complements the result leg rather than duplicating it, since Newcastle's own defensive record, conceding twice in their last outing, keeps Millwall's home scoring rate of 1 goal per game live. Millwall's average of 5 corners conceded per game at home also points to territorial pressure that can convert into goalmouth chances for the visitors without shutting out the hosts.

Yoane Wissa
✗ Miss
Anytime Goalscorer
3/2

Wissa adds a differentiated third leg away from the result and BTTS markets, drawing on Newcastle's 16-shot output in their previous cup tie. Combining a specific scorer with the team markets spreads the risk across independent outcomes within the same fixture.

Combined Price
71/10
Stake£10.00
Returns£81.00
Profit+£71.00