Juventus v Lazio: Preview, predicted line-ups and Serie A tip

Lazio arrive in Turin with the longest unbeaten run in Serie A on their side of the table and a place in the top two to defend. They have played six, won five and drawn one, and they beat Monza 3-1 at home last Sunday.

Juventus have been less tidy. A 1-1 draw at Cagliari on 11 October left them seventh on 11 points, five behind Lazio and two adrift of the Champions League places. They have not lost at the Allianz Stadium this season, but they have also yet to look like contenders for the top four.

This is a game the hosts need more than the visitors. Lazio can afford a point. Juventus, with a defence this stingy at home, may have to settle for one as well.

Juventus have won three, drawn two and lost one of their six league games. They have scored nine and conceded five. Six of those nine goals have come between the 76th and 90th minutes, so they tend to find their moments late.

The home record is the best part of their season. They have won two and drawn one at the Allianz Stadium, scoring five and conceding one. Away from Turin it has been looser: a 3-2 defeat at Sassuolo on 13 September is their only loss, and they conceded four goals in three road games. They dominate the ball, averaging 58.7% possession and 18.3 shots a game, with 6.5 on target.

Lazio have taken 16 points from a possible 18 and sit second on goal difference of plus seven, behind Inter on the same points. Their only dropped points came in a 2-2 home draw with AC Milan on 12 September.

They are a side that wins away from home. Three wins from three on the road, five goals scored and one conceded, with two clean sheets. They average 1.8 goals a game but are far less dominant in the stats, with 49.5% possession and 13.5 shots. A win in Turin would move them clear of Roma, who have 14 points. A point would keep them in the top two for another week.

Lazio's last six reads W5 D1 L0, and they have scored in every game. Juventus's reads W3 D2 L1, and they have not failed to score either. On paper that is a clear edge for the visitors. The underlying numbers narrow it. Juventus's expected goals conceded is 0.49 a game, compared with 1.34 for Lazio, and Juventus have a 8.7 to 4.8 corner advantage. Lazio have been efficient and a little fortunate. Juventus have been dominant without turning it into wins. Both have kept three clean sheets in six.

Lazio are second on 16 points from six games, level with leaders Inter and ahead of third-placed Roma by two. Juventus are seventh on 11 points from six, with a goal difference of plus four. They are two points behind fifth-placed Cagliari and three behind fourth-placed Frosinone, who have played a game more.

A home win would lift Juventus to 14 points and put them level with Roma, who are third. A defeat would leave them five points off the top four with Lazio pulling further clear. For Lazio, victory would put them top of the table if Inter slip up, while a draw keeps them in the Champions League places.

We do not have a verified head-to-head summary for this fixture, so there are no meeting totals, goals averages or last-meeting figures to quote here. The data we do have is from this season and says plenty on its own.

Both sides have kept three clean sheets from six and scored in all six games. Juventus's matches have mostly stayed low-scoring, with five of six under 2.5 goals. Lazio's are more open, with three of six going over. That suggests a goals line around 2.5 is a coin flip, and a 1-1 or 1-0 scoreline is more likely than a shootout.

Possession and territory favour Juventus. They average 58.7% of the ball against Lazio's 49.5%, and have 8.7 corners a game for and 2.5 against. Lazio have conceded 5.0 corners a game and have 4.8 for. If Juventus camp in the Lazio half, the question is whether they can convert pressure into goals.

That is where Lazio's efficiency matters. They have 4.3 shots on target a game and 1.83 goals, against 6.5 shots on target and 1.5 goals for Juventus. Lazio score more from less. The hosts' xG of 1.62 a game suggests the goals will come, but Lazio's away defence, one conceded in three, has been difficult to break.

Juventus have used a 4-2-3-1 in four of their six league games, and Lazio have played a 4-3-3 in all six. We expect both to stick with those shapes. Selection is hard to call without confirmed team news, so these XIs are provisional.

Juventus: Vicario; Kalulu, Bremer, Gatti, Cambiaso; Locatelli, Thuram; Conceição, Koopmeiners, Yıldız; Kolo Muani

**Lazio: Nuno Tavares; Rovella, Cataldi, Dele-Bashiru; Isaksen, Zaccagni

The game kicks off at 19:45 BST on Sunday 18 October at the Allianz Stadium. It is shown on DAZN where selected. We have not confirmed any other UK broadcaster for this fixture.

The value sits in the low-scoring draw. Juventus have conceded once at home all season, Lazio once away, and five of Juventus's six games have gone under 2.5 goals. Both sides have scored in every league game, which keeps both teams to score in play. The bet builder leans on the home side's safety net rather than a result.