Inter aim to bounce back from Roma draw against out-of-form Parma

Inter let their unbeaten start to the Serie A season slip at the top when they drew 2-2 at Roma last time out, a result that left them level on points with the league leaders rather than clear of them. They host Parma on Saturday knowing a win puts that straight back right, against a side that has won only once in its last five matches in all competitions and arrives at San Siro having failed to score in two of them.

Inter sit second in Serie A on 13 points from five games, level with Roma and Lazio at the top, having won four and drawn one. The draw at Roma was their only dropped points of the campaign, a 2-2 scoreline on the road against the league's form side. Before that they had won four on the spin, beating Napoli 3-2, Cagliari 1-0, Monza 4-1 and thrashing Udinese 5-3.

The underlying numbers back up the position. Inter are averaging three goals a game in their last five outings, with 63% possession and 7.4 shots on target per match. They kept a clean sheet in their away win at Cagliari before conceding twice in the draw at Roma, and their only real defensive blemish all season came in a 5-3 shootout at home to Udinese.

Parma arrive at San Siro having won once in their last five matches, a 2-1 home win over Genoa, sandwiched between three defeats and a draw. They lost 2-1 away at Como, were beaten 2-0 by Juventus and lost 1-0 at home to Cagliari, failing to score in two of those five games.

The numbers explain why. Parma are averaging just 0.8 goals a game in their recent run from 8.2 shots, with only 2.8 of those on target, and their average possession of 42.8% in this sequence points to a side regularly camped in its own half. A trip to the division's form team is a tough way to try to build on the Genoa win.

Inter's W4 D1 L0 record from their last five tells its own story, and the draw at Roma is the only blemish on an otherwise flawless start. Parma's W1 D1 L3 in the same window is the opposite picture, with three defeats in five outweighing a solitary win over Genoa. The gap in confidence between these two sides right now is as wide as the gap in the table, and Inter's home form, three wins out of three with 12 goals scored, suggests San Siro is not the place to try to arrest a slide.

Inter sit second on 13 points from five games, level with Roma on top spot and Lazio in third, separated only by goal difference. A win here keeps them in touching distance of top spot heading into the next international break and extends their unbeaten start to six matches.

Parma's season has been far more difficult. One win from their last five has them scrapping among the division's lower reaches rather than pushing for the places that matter, and a heavy defeat at San Siro would only add to the pressure building after back-to-back losses to Como and Juventus either side of a home defeat to Cagliari.

Inter have won 7 of the last 10 meetings between these two sides, with the other three finishing level and Parma yet to win any of them. The average is 3.1 goals per game across that sample, both teams have scored in 70% of those matches and over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of them too. The last meeting finished 2-0 to Inter at San Siro on 3 May 2026.

That record has barely shifted in Inter's favour over the years, and Parma's current scoring struggles, just 0.8 goals a game in their last five, make it hard to see them breaking the pattern now. The historical BTTS and over 2.5 rates both sit at 70%, which lines up neatly with what Inter's attack and Parma's leaky defence are producing right now. The goals markets look the more reliable read of this fixture than backing Parma to spring a surprise.

The gap between these sides shows up clearest in possession and shot quality. Inter are averaging 63% of the ball in their last five games to Parma's 42.8%, and 7.4 shots on target a game to Parma's 2.8. Inter's expected goals average of 2.9 per match dwarfs Parma's 0.68, a gap that suggests this should not be close if both sides play to recent type. Parma's set-piece exposure adds to the concern, they are conceding 6.2 corners a game in this run against Inter's 6.2 won, which hands the home side plenty of extra chances to find a way through.

Inter should stick with their back three, with Yann Bisseck, Alessandro Bastoni and Manuel Akanji protecting the goal and Djed Spence picking up the right wing-back slot. Jack Stones is a doubt and is unlikely to be risked from the start. Parma are expected to go with a settled back four and look to spring forward through Mateo Keita and El Bilal Toure in attack, with Adrian Bernabe's fitness doubt likely to keep him among the substitutes rather than in the XI.

Inter: Martínez; Bastoni, Akanji, Bisseck; Spence, Barella, Çalhanoğlu, Mkhitaryan, Dimarco; Lautaro Martínez, Thuram

Parma: Corvi; Britschgi, Valenti, Del Prato, Carboni; Sørensen, Ordoñez, Kouda; Keita, Touré, Diallo

Kick-off at San Siro is at 17:00 BST on Saturday. The game is shown on DAZN where selected, with coverage available through the broadcaster's streaming platform for subscribers in eligible UK regions. DAZN holds the rights to the bulk of this season's Serie A fixtures, including this one.

The goals markets carry the strongest signal here. Inter have hit the net 15 times in five games and Parma have shown little sign of tightening up at the back, and that pattern matches a head-to-head record where 70% of meetings have gone over 2.5 goals. The bigger question for punters is whether Parma manage to get on the scoresheet at all.