France v Sweden prediction, lineups & tips: World Cup 2026 round of 32

Didier Deschamps takes his France side into the FIFA World Cup 2026 knockout rounds with a perfect group record and a squad playing some of the most clinical football of his 13-year tenure. That backdrop alone makes Tuesday night's round of 32 tie against Sweden a straightforward exercise on paper. In practice, Deschamps spent his Monday press conference reminding everyone that knockout football has its own logic, and that his side's habit of allowing opponents chances is a problem he intends to fix rather than explain away.

France swept through Group I with three wins from three, beating Senegal 3-1, Iraq 3-0 and Norway 4-1, scoring 10 goals and conceding just two. Kylian Mbappé and Ousmane Dembélé both finished the group stage with four goals apiece, with Dembélé's hat-trick against Norway the defining performance of any group-stage night so far. Sweden, meanwhile, qualified as one of the best third-placed teams from Group F after a turbulent three games: a 5-1 win over Tunisia, a 5-1 defeat to the Netherlands, and a 1-1 draw with Japan that just about got them through.

This is Deschamps' farewell tournament. He has confirmed he will step down at the end of France's run in North America, having won the World Cup in 2018 and reached the final in 2022. The prospect of a third consecutive final, and the chance to become the first coach to win the tournament twice, gives this campaign an emotional weight that sits alongside the football. On the evidence of the group stage, the football is more than good enough.

For Sweden, getting here felt unlikely enough. Graham Potter took over last October with two qualifiers remaining, guided them through the play-offs via the UEFA Nations League route, and oversaw a Viktor Gyökeres winner against Poland in the 88th minute that booked their spot. The Swedes are ranked 38th in the world. France are third. Potter has not tried to dress it up differently. "We have to play the game of our lives," he told reporters on Monday in New Jersey. "An exciting challenge awaits us."

The concern for Sweden is structural as much as statistical. Their goals against tally in the group stage stood at seven, the same number they scored, and their xG against average of 1.37 per game exposes a defence that was torn apart by the Netherlands. France, by contrast, averaged 3.33 goals per game across three group fixtures, generated an xG of 1.92 per match, and hit an average of 7.33 shots on target per game. The mismatch is stark.

Deschamps was direct about France's defensive inconsistency when he spoke to reporters on Monday. "We've conceded a few too many chances," he said. "Every match has a different scenario. We have the ability to create danger and hurt the opposition. That's our strength, and I want us to keep that strength."

Midfielder Adrien Rabiot was at his side and addressed the risk of complacency, noting that France's last-16 exit to Switzerland at Euro 2020, when they were 3-1 up and lost on penalties, remains a reference point in the dressing room. Sweden's last win over France came in June 2017, a 2-1 result in World Cup qualifying in Stockholm. Victor Lindelöf, who played in that game, told reporters on Monday that the squad believes it can repeat the feat. "We know we can win this match even if it is going to be extremely difficult," the Aston Villa defender said.

Deschamps is expected to name an attack-minded XI with Mbappé leading the line and Dembélé and Michael Olise flanking him. Désiré Doué should retain his place in behind. The absence of Kanté, if confirmed, would hand Rabiot a key defensive midfield role alongside Aurélien Tchouaméni.

For Sweden, Potter has little choice but to operate with a five-man defence. Lindelöf stepping into the back three means Lucas Bergvall gets a likely first World Cup start in midfield. Anthony Elanga, who has scored in two of his last three games, keeps his place in attack alongside Gyökeres and Alexander Isak, a front three that, on a good day, is more than capable of causing problems.

France: Maignan; Koundé, Upamecano, Saliba, T Hernández; Tchouaméni, Rabiot; Olise, Dembélé, Doué; Mbappé

Sweden: Zetterström; Lagerbielke, Lindelöf, Gudmundsson; Bernhardsson, Bergvall, Ayari, Stroud; Elanga, Gyökeres, Isak

France v Sweden kicks off at 22:00 BST on Tuesday, 30 June. The game is live on ITV1 in the UK, with coverage starting at 21:15. It can also be streamed free via ITVX. Fox Sports carries the game in the United States.