Atletico Madrid v Deportivo La Coruna: Preview, predicted line-ups & team news

Atletico Madrid went to Espanyol last Saturday and won 1-0 without needing to be at their best, their fifth straight league win and the latest in a run that has taken them to second in La Liga. Deportivo La Coruna spent the same weekend trying to explain another draw: a 1-1 home result against Levante left them with five draws from nine, a total no side in the division has bettered. Saturday's meeting at the Metropolitano pairs the form team in the top three with a promoted side that has found it hard to turn competitive games into wins.

Atletico sit second on 22 points from nine games, five behind Barcelona and one ahead of Real Madrid. The season data shows 19 goals scored and eight conceded, a goal difference of +11. Their last ten results include a 2-1 win over Real Madrid at home on 20 September and a 4-0 win over Osasuna four days earlier, while their only defeat was 3-0 at Athletic Club on 5 September.

The form is built on control. Atletico average 59.8% possession and 17.8 shots per game across their recent fixtures, with 6.4 on target, and their expected goals figures of 1.73 for and 0.99 against back up the results rather than flatter them. However, 42.1% of their league goals (eight of 19) have come between the 76th and 90th minutes, which suggests this side still tends to win games late rather than early.

Deportivo are ninth on 11 points, level with Celta Vigo and Osasuna and four clear of Elche in the bottom three. They have two wins, five draws and two defeats, with 13 goals scored and 12 conceded. Their goal difference of +1 is mid-table in every sense.

The concern for the visitors is at the back. Deportivo have conceded in all nine league games and the recent-form data shows 5.4 corners against per game, plus just 48.1% possession and 11.7 shots. Away from home they have scored seven and conceded seven in four games, with one win and two draws. A draw here would be a good result for a side that has lost only twice, but they will need to score to get it.

Diego Simeone, speaking before the game, was complimentary about the opposition. The Atletico coach described Deportivo as a "brave team" that has competed well in every match this season. The comments suggest a home side that does not intend to treat the visit of a mid-table team as a formality.

Atletico's last nine league results read seven wins, one draw and one defeat, with the only dropped points a 2-2 home draw against Villarreal on 23 August and the 3-0 loss at Athletic Club. Deportivo's nine read two wins, five draws and two defeats. Their recent-form aggregate shows only 1.44 goals per game scored, against 2.11 for Atletico, and an expected goals figure of 1.11 for and 1.14 against. The surface form favours the hosts heavily. However, Deportivo's record is more resilient than a draw-heavy run might suggest, as they have lost only twice and both defeats were by a single goal, including a 3-2 loss at Real Sociedad on 11 October.

Atletico are second on 22 points from nine games, five behind unbeaten Barcelona on 27 and one ahead of Real Madrid on 21, who have played the same number of games. Real Betis in fourth are three points further back on 19. A win keeps Atletico within touching distance of the leaders, while a slip would let Real Madrid and Betis close up.

Deportivo are ninth on 11 points from nine games, level with Celta Vigo and Osasuna, and sit eight points behind fourth-placed Betis. They are four clear of Elche in 18th on seven points. A defeat would not cause alarm, but the congested middle of the table means three or four places could be lost in a weekend.

Atletico have won seven of the last 10 meetings, Deportivo none, with three draws. Those games have averaged 1.6 goals, which Atletico won 1-0. The last time the sides met in La Liga at the Metropolitano, on 1 April 2018, Atletico also won 1-0.

The pattern is a low-scoring contest with Atletico edging it, and four of the five most recent meetings finished 1-0 to Atletico. The data suggests that a similar game is plausible, though this season's trends differ slightly: Atletico score 2.1 per game and Deportivo's matches have produced both teams scoring in eight of nine. That points to the unders and a narrow home win being a better guide than a goal glut, although a second Atletico goal late on would not be out of character given how many they score after the 75th minute.

The biggest gap is in territory and shot volume. Atletico average 59.8% possession and 17.8 shots per game in recent matches, against 48.1% and 11.7 for Deportivo, and 6.4 shots on target against 4.3. That is a difference of roughly two shots on target per game, and it means Deportivo are likely to spend long periods defending.

The second gap is set pieces. Atletico win 6.3 corners per game and concede 2.8, while Deportivo win 5.2 and concede 5.4. Combined with Deportivo conceding 1.3 goals per game and failing to keep a clean sheet, that points to the visitors being most vulnerable on dead balls and in the late stages, when 41.7% of their own goals have come but where they have also conceded two.

Both sides have used a 4-4-2 more than any other shape this season (six of nine games for Atletico, five of nine for Deportivo). Atletico must reshuffle in midfield and defence because of injuries, and Lee Kang-In is a late decision. Deportivo are missing several forwards and defenders.

Atletico Madrid: Oblak; Llorente, Le Normand, Hancko, Grimaldo; Lookman, Barrios, Cardoso, Baena; Álvarez, Sørloth

Deportivo La Coruna: Leo Román; Ximo Navarro, Barcia, Loureiro, Escudero; Mella, Villares, Gragera, Soriano; Cristian Herrera, Kevin Sánchez

Kick-off at the Metropolitano is at 20:00 BST on Saturday 24 October 2026. The match is shown on Premier Sports where selected, which holds the La Liga rights in the UK this season. The exact channel for this fixture has not been confirmed yet, and this page will be updated closer to kick-off if that changes.

The value in this fixture is in the goals market rather than the match result. Atletico are short at 1/4, but the head-to-head record (only 20% of the last 10 meetings went over 2.5 goals) and Atletico's own home numbers (an average of 0.8 conceded) point to a controlled win rather than a high-scoring game. The bet builder below leans on that: a home win, a low goals floor and a forward who should get chances.