Inter v Fiorentina: Preview, predicted line-ups & Serie A tips

Fiorentina arrive on Sunday morning with a problem that no amount of pre-match optimism can disguise.

They sit 18th, they have won once in seven league games, and the last two outings brought a 3-1 home defeat to Como and a 2-1 loss at Genoa.

Inter, by contrast, are top of the table and in the sort of form that makes opponents wince when the fixture list lands.

They have won six and drawn one, and the goals have been arriving in bunches.

If you're a Fiorentina fan, this is not the visit you would have picked for a reset.

If you're an Inter fan, it looks like a fine chance to pile on the goal difference before the next big test.

Inter's record reads as close to flawless: six wins and a draw from seven, 19 points, and 21 goals scored at an average of 3.0 per game.

At home that figure climbs to 3.8, with 15 goals in four matches, which includes a 5-3 win over Udinese and a 4-1 win over Monza.

The latest two results were a 3-0 home win against Parma and a 3-1 victory at Bologna, so there is no sign of a wobble.

The only slightly less shiny number is at the back, where they've conceded nine, though even that works out at 1.3 a game.

Fiorentina's season, on the other hand, has been a slow slide.

They have four points from seven games and a goal difference of minus nine, and they have conceded 17 times, an average of 2.4 per game, without a single clean sheet.

They did show some life in a 4-2 win at Venezia in September, and a 1-1 draw with Napoli at home, but those are the exceptions.

Away from home they have actually been the livelier side, scoring 1.7 per game on the road against 0.8 at home, so there is at least a flicker for the travelling fans to cling to.

Inter's last seven in all Serie A fixtures read six wins, one draw and no defeats, with 21 goals scored and 9 conceded, an average possession of 62.7 per cent and 7.29 shots on target per game.

Fiorentina's equivalent is one win, one draw and five defeats, with 8 scored and 17 conceded, and they have failed to score twice in those seven.

The surface picture is stark and it is hard to argue it tells a false story, although Fiorentina's 1.65 average expected goals for suggests they have created better chances than the scoreline has rewarded.

Inter's 2.87 expected goals for says the hosts are not riding their luck either.

Inter are first on 19 points from seven games, level on points with second-placed Lazio but ahead on goal difference (plus 12 against plus 10), so a win keeps the pressure on the chasing pack.

Roma are third on 17 and AC Milan fourth on 15, which leaves Inter with a small but useful cushion.

Fiorentina are 18th on four points from seven games, level with Udinese, Genoa and Parma, and only goal difference separates them from the places directly beneath them.

They are a single point behind Bologna in 15th, so the gap to safety is small enough to close with one good week.

However, a defeat here would leave them watching rivals pull away before the next round.

Inter have won six of the last 10 meetings, Fiorentina two and two have been drawn, with an average of 2.9 goals per game.

Both teams have scored in half of those matches (50 per cent) and 60 per cent have gone over 2.5 goals.

The last meeting ended 1-1 in Florence on 22 March 2026, and the one before that was a 3-0 Inter win at home on 29 October 2025.

The rivalry has been fairly one-sided of late, though Fiorentina have shown they can bother Inter, winning 3-0 in Florence in February 2025 and holding them to a draw in March.

The pattern points to a game that goes over 2.5 goals more often than not, but the BTTS rate of 50 per cent suggests Fiorentina are not guaranteed to get on the scoresheet.

This time their defensive numbers are far worse than in those games, which leans the correct-score market towards a home win by two or three goals.

The biggest gap is at the back, where Fiorentina concede 2.43 goals per game across their last seven and Inter concede 1.29.

The second is in front of goal: Inter average 3.0 goals with 2.87 expected goals, while Fiorentina manage 1.14 from 1.65 expected.

The third is control of the ball, with Inter holding 62.7 per cent possession against Fiorentina's 46.7.

Put those together and you have a visiting side likely to spend long spells chasing shadows.

Inter also win more corners (5.71 per game for, against 3.86 conceded by Fiorentina), which is a handy angle if you fancy the set-piece markets.

Inter should line up in their usual 3-5-2, though Esposito is likely to partner Thuram.

Fiorentina have mostly used a 4-2-3-1 this season and should stick with it.

Inter: Provedel; Akanji, Bisseck, Bastoni; Carlos Augusto, Barella, Mkhitaryan, Dimarco; Thuram, Esposito.

Kick-off is at 11:30 UK time on Sunday 25 October, and note that the clocks go back overnight, so the lunchtime start is on GMT.

In the UK the game is shown on DAZN where selected, so check that the match is included in your package before kick-off.

A free-to-air or TNT Sports showing has not been confirmed for this fixture, and this page will be updated if that changes.

The value in this game is not in the result, where Inter are very short, but in the goals markets.

Inter have scored three or more in four of their seven league games, and Fiorentina have conceded two or more in six of theirs.

The home-win price of 1/3 is short but sound, so the sensible approach is to pair it with the goals lines and a scorer.

The set-piece angle is a more adventurous way in.