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Chelsea v Leeds: EFL Cup prediction, lineups and Xabi Alonso team news

Xabi Alonso faces a Leeds side unbeaten in four as the EFL Cup returns to Stamford Bridge, with Caicedo, Henderson and Emegha all missing for the hosts.

Published
Tue 8 Sept, 07:04
Updated
Tue 8 Sept, 22:08

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Round of 32 hook

Chelsea's EFL Cup campaign resumes at Stamford Bridge on Wednesday night, with Xabi Alonso looking to shake off Sunday's defeat to Arsenal by seeing off Leeds in the competition's round of 32. It is a tie with history attached given the sides met in an FA Cup semi-final last season, and Alonso is already dealing with a lengthy absentee list before a ball is kicked.

BET FOOTBALL
ChelseaChelsea
6–3
Full time
LeedsLeeds
Wed 9 Sept, 20:00•Stamford Bridge

Path to the round of 32

Chelsea reached this stage with a comfortable 2-0 win over Luton Town at Stamford Bridge on 27 August, a result that remains their biggest win of the season so far. It came in front of the season's lowest home attendance, 32,210, a reminder that fans still treat this competition as a lower priority than the league.

Leeds have made an unbeaten start to the season and have carried that form into the cup, though the specifics of their earlier round win are not detailed here. D. Farke's side go into the tie full of confidence after picking up results in the Premier League as well.

Rotation context

Alonso has been forced into changes by injury rather than choice, and reports suggest a switch from his usual back three to a back four is likely for this game. Farke has confirmed there will be rotation of his own at Leeds, saying he wants to "integrate new players" into the squad. Goalkeeper Michael Zetterer could make his Leeds debut, with James Trafford the alternative as he continues "finding his rhythm" at the club.

Manager quote

Alonso is taking a cautious line on his walking wounded rather than rushing anyone back. Asked about Moises Caicedo and Marco Palestra, he said: "They're still not ready to go. It's not the moment to take too early a risk. We'll go game by game with them, but it's too early."

On Levi Colwill, there was better news. Alonso confirmed: "He's okay for tomorrow."

Farke, meanwhile, is managing his own fitness concern over Daniel James, who picked up a back issue in the warm-up before the Brighton game. "The scan results were good," Farke said. "We have two more sessions, if he comes through those then he is hopefully available. Carefully optimistic."

Line-ups

ChelseaChelsea5-4-1
  • 39GM. Penders
  • 27DM. Gusto
  • 6DL. Colwill
  • 5DM. Lacroix
  • 34DJoshua Kofi Acheampong
  • 29DPep Chavarría
  • 41MEstêvão
  • 31MR. Watson
  • 4MV. Barco
  • 11MJ. Bynoe-Gittens
  • 18FD. Welbeck
Manager · Xabi Alonso
LeedsLeeds3-4-2-1
  • 16GM. Zetterer
  • 24DJ. Justin
  • 15DJ. Bijol
  • 5DT. Muharemović
  • 7MD. James
  • 4ME. Ampadu
  • 8MS. Longstaff
  • 26MM. Bard
  • 10MH. Wilson
  • 11MB. Aaronson
  • 14FL. Nmecha
Manager · D. Farke

Where to watch Chelsea v Leeds: TV and online streams

The tie kicks off at 20:00 BST on Wednesday 9 September at Stamford Bridge. Selected EFL Cup fixtures this season are shown on Sky Sports where selected. If the scores are level after 90 minutes, the match goes straight to a penalty shoot-out, as is the format for this stage of the EFL Cup.

Stats for Chelsea v Leeds

  • Chelsea beat Luton 2-0 in their previous EFL Cup outing, their biggest win of the season to date
  • Chelsea have been eliminated at this stage of the EFL Cup only once in the last 15 years
  • Chelsea's last competitive result was a 2-0 win over Luton on 27 August, with an average of 3.19 expected goals and 66% possession in that match
  • Leeds' most recent recorded fixture was a 2-0 win away at Nottingham Forest, keeping a clean sheet with an average of 2.72 expected goals created
Headline prediction · our pick
✓ HitConfidence · medium

match result: chelsea to win

Chelsea have been the sharper side in their most recent outings, averaging 3.19 expected goals and 66% possession in their last EFL Cup tie, and Alonso's squad depth in attack should tell even with Henderson, Caicedo and Emegha missing. Leeds arrive unbeaten and with a settled defensive record of their own, but a raft of changes to accommodate Farke's rotation plan makes it harder to back them to keep out a Chelsea front line featuring Estêvão and Welbeck. Expect chances at both ends before Chelsea's greater firepower sees them through.

Best Price13/20bet365 · score 2-1
✓ Prediction landed
TIP 01✗ Miss

Correct Score: 2-1

Chelsea have scored twice in their last recorded outing and Leeds have shown they can find the net against Premier League opposition too. A tight game with goals at both ends fits the pattern of two sides low on settled personnel this week.

TIP 02✓ Hit

Over 2.5 Goals: Over

Chelsea's last match produced an expected goals figure of 3.19, well above the cup average, and a rotated Leeds defence is unlikely to match the shape they showed in keeping a clean sheet at Forest. Backing goals looks the shrewder route into this one.

TIP 03✓ Hit

Both Teams to Score: Yes

Both sides kept clean sheets in their last outing, but both changes to personnel work against defensive continuity here. Leeds have enough going forward through Gnonto and Calvert-Lewin to trouble a Chelsea back line missing Caicedo's protection in midfield.

TIP 04✗ Miss

Anytime Goalscorer: Estêvão

With Emegha, Henderson and Caicedo all sidelined, Chelsea's attacking options are likely to lean on the wide players, and Estêvão looks set for a rare starting chance against a rotated Leeds backline. He has the profile to be Chelsea's biggest attacking threat on the night.

TIP 05✓ Hit

Draw No Bet: Home

Chelsea's home form and squad depth give them the platform to win this outright, but Draw No Bet offers cover given the number of changes Alonso is expected to make. It is a safer way to back the same conclusion as the headline pick.

Build the Chelsea v Leeds bet

BetFootball Builder · 3 Legs✗ Miss
Home Win
✓ Hit
Match Result
13/20

The base of the builder. Chelsea's home advantage and greater squad depth in attack make them the more likely winners even accounting for rotation on both sides.

Over
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 Goals
9/10

Adds value on top of the result pick. Chelsea's recent expected goals numbers point to a high-scoring game rather than a cagey one, which complements backing them to win rather than to win narrowly.

Estêvão
✗ Miss
Anytime Goalscorer
5/2

Ties the goals market to a specific outlet. With Chelsea's senior forwards missing, Estêvão is well placed to be involved in the goals that decide this game, without directly overlapping the result or totals legs.

Combined Price
199/20
Stake£10.00
Returns£109.72
Profit+£99.72