Everton v Chelsea: Preview, predicted line-ups and betting tips

Everton have spent the first six games of the season refusing to lose. Two wins and four draws leave them unbeaten and fifth in the Premier League, level on 10 points with Brentford and Chelsea. It is a start that has gone largely unremarked, which suits the hosts just fine.

Chelsea turn up at Hill Dickinson Stadium having done the opposite. Their results have swung between a 5-1 home win over Bournemouth last Saturday and a 3-0 defeat at Brentford on 18 September. Nobody in this fixture knows quite which version arrives on Merseyside, and the lunchtime kick-off will not help them find out.

Everton's record is built on being awkward. They have drawn 0-0 at Tottenham, 1-1 at Bournemouth, 2-2 with Manchester United and 2-2 at Hull, and beaten Crystal Palace 2-0 and Ipswich 1-0. Three clean sheets in six tell their own story, with just five goals conceded in total, an average of 0.8 per game.

At home they have won two and drawn one, scoring five and conceding two, with two clean sheets in three. Their problem is conversion. They average 1.3 goals per game and have not scored more than two in any league match. Three of their eight goals have arrived between the 76th and 90th minutes, so they tend to be in it late.

Chelsea are a different proposition. They have scored 15 goals in six games, 2.5 per match, but have also conceded 13. That is 2.2 per game, and not once have they kept the opposition out.

The gap between home and away is stark. At home they have won twice and drawn once, scoring 11. On the road they have won once and lost twice, scoring four and shipping seven. Seven of their 15 goals have come in the first 15 minutes, so Everton cannot afford a slow start.

Everton's last six read two wins, four draws and no defeats, with eight goals scored and five conceded. Chelsea's read three wins, one draw and two defeats, with 15 scored and 13 conceded. The hosts are the steadier side, but they have drawn their last two away games and been held in four of six overall. Chelsea's results look better on paper than their underlying numbers: their expected goals against average is 1.70 per game, compared with 1.38 for Everton. A 5-1 win last time out flatters a side that conceded three at Brentford and two at home to Hull.

Everton sit fifth on 10 points from six games, with a goal difference of +3. Chelsea are sixth on the same points total but a goal difference of +2. Brentford are fourth on 10 points with +6, and Leeds are seventh on nine. Brighton, third on 13, are three points clear of this trio.

That leaves Saturday as a straight shootout for position. A win lifts the victors to within a point of Brighton. A defeat could drop either side below Leeds and into the pack. For Everton, a draw would extend the unbeaten run to seven but keep them stuck in the same place.

The last 10 meetings split three wins to Everton, three draws and four wins to Chelsea. They average 2.2 goals per game. Both teams scored in only two of the 10 (20%) and three went over 2.5 goals (30%). The most recent meeting was Everton's 3-0 win at Hill Dickinson Stadium on 21 March 2026.

That result broke a run in which Chelsea won 2-0 at home in December 2025, won 1-0 in April 2025 and drew 0-0 at Goodison in December 2024. These fixtures have been tight and low-scoring, which cuts against our BTTS lean. The difference this time is Chelsea's defence. They have conceded in every game this season, and a side that leaks 2.2 a game does not tend to keep a clean sheet against anyone for long. Expect the historical under-2.5 pattern to hold more than the no-BTTS one.

The biggest gap is at the back. Chelsea concede 2.17 goals per game and have no clean sheets. Everton concede 0.83 and have three. At the other end Chelsea score 2.5 per game to Everton's 1.33.

The xG numbers narrow it. Everton average 1.51 expected goals for to Chelsea's 1.40, and they take 15.8 shots per game to 13.7. Everton are creating more than they score, which suggests a goal or two are due. Corners are almost level, 5.2 for Everton and 5.7 for Chelsea, so there is little to separate them from the set pieces, and 10 or 11 total corners looks the sensible range.

Everton have started five of six in a 4-2-3-1, and Chelsea five of six in a 3-4-2-1. The hosts' only real decision is at left-back, where Mykolenko is a doubt. Chelsea's is up front, where a doubt is possible and João Pedro looks the obvious choice to lead the line.

**Everton: Tarkowski, Branthwaite, Finney; Garner, Alcaraz; Dibling, Grealish, Dewsbury-Hall; Barry

Chelsea: Martínez; Fofana, Colwill, Lacroix; Gusto, Caicedo, Lavia, Hato; Palmer, Estêvão; João Pedro

Everton v Chelsea kicks off at 12:30 BST on Saturday 17 October at Hill Dickinson Stadium. The Premier League's UK rights are held by Sky Sports and TNT Sports, and the match is shown on Sky Sports where selected. We will update this page if a specific channel is confirmed closer to kick-off.

The value sits in the goals markets. Chelsea's defence has conceded in all six games, and Everton have scored in five of six, which makes BTTS the safest leg. The tension is with total goals, because the H2H and Everton's profile point towards a tight game. We back a low-scoring draw with both sides on the scoresheet, and João Pedro is the obvious scorer to lean on.