Union Berlin v Borussia Dortmund: Preview, predicted line-ups & Bundesliga tips

Union Berlin spent the first week of October rediscovering what a win feels like. A 1-0 home victory over SV Elversberg on 10 October ended a run of three straight league defeats, a sequence that included a 7-0 loss at Bayern München on 18 September. Before the Elversberg game, the form data shows the hosts had conceded 17 goals across five league fixtures, so the clean sheet carried real weight. Borussia Dortmund are the next test, and they come to the Stadion An der Alten Försterei second in the table and unbeaten. The visitors have taken 13 points from a possible 15, and Union will need a far tighter defensive display than anything they have produced away from home this season.

Dortmund's start has been built on a settled structure and a meanness at the back. The visitors have played a 3-4-2-1 in four of their five league games, and they have conceded just four goals, with three clean sheets. They also won their opening four games before a 2-2 draw at home to Werder Bremen on 9 October, the only points dropped so far.

The attacking numbers are healthy too. Dortmund average 2.2 goals per game, and their recent-form xG of 1.81 per match, against 0.91 xG conceded, suggests the results are backed by performance rather than luck. However, the Bremen draw showed the back line can be breached, and three of their four goals against have arrived in the final 15 minutes.

Union's season is already at an awkward point. They have four points from five games, from one win, one draw and three defeats, and their goals-for tally of five against 17 conceded gives a goal difference of minus 12. Away from home the picture is bleaker still: they have lost both road games, scoring none and conceding 11, an average of 5.5 per match, which includes the 4-0 defeat at Bayer Leverkusen as well as the Bayern game.

The home record is more forgiving. Union have scored five at home across three games, drawing 3-3 with Eintracht Frankfurt on 29 August before losing 3-1 to Schalke 04 on 11 September. Their expected goals against of 2.21 per game over the last five suggests the defensive problems are not a matter of bad luck, and Saturday is a chance to show the Elversberg clean sheet was a starting point.

Dortmund's last five league games read four wins and a draw, with 11 goals scored and four conceded. They have not lost, and they have kept three clean sheets, which marks them out as the steadier side by a distance. Union's last five read one win, one draw and three defeats, with five scored and 17 conceded, and only one clean sheet. The surface gap is wide, but the Elversberg result shows Union can still shut a game down at home. Even so, Dortmund's xG difference over the same period is positive by 0.90 per game (1.81 for, 0.91 against), while Union's is negative by 1.08 (1.13 for, 2.21 against). That suggests the form table is not flattering the visitors.

Dortmund sit second on 13 points from five games, with a goal difference of plus seven. They are level on points with leaders SC Freiburg, who hold the top spot on a goal difference of plus 10, and two clear of third-placed Bayern München on 11. A win would keep them in the title conversation and could take them top if Freiburg slip, while a defeat would hand the early initiative to their rivals for the Champions League places.

Union have four points from five games, from one win, one draw and three defeats, and a goal difference of minus 12. A win would give them a first back-to-back league victory this season and some breathing space early in the campaign. A fourth defeat in six would leave them with real questions to answer before the first international break.

The supplied data covers 10 meetings. Dortmund have won eight, Union two, and none has been drawn. Games between the sides average 3.7 goals, with eight of the ten going over 2.5 goals (80%) and both teams scoring in four (40%). The last meeting was at the Stadion An der Alten Försterei on 24 January 2026, when Dortmund won 3-0. Four of the five most recent games were Dortmund wins, including a 6-0 at home on 22 February 2025.

The pattern points to one-sided scorelines rather than open exchanges. The 40% BTTS rate sits well below the over 2.5 rate, so the goals have tended to come from one side. Union's last win in the series was a 2-1 at home on 5 October 2024, and they have failed to score in the three games since. That leans the markets towards a Dortmund win with over 2.5 goals, though Union's three home goals against Frankfurt on 29 August show they can still find the net in Berlin.

The widest gap is at the back. Dortmund have conceded 0.8 goals per game and Union 3.4 over the last five, while Union also concede 6.0 corners per game against Dortmund's 4.6, a sign of how much pressure the hosts have been under. Possession points the same way: Dortmund average 53.4% against Union's 45.2%.

At the other end, Dortmund average 15.8 shots per game with 5.8 on target, compared with 13.2 and 5.2 for Union, so the shot volume is not hugely different. The difference lies in quality and defensive structure. Dortmund's xG of 1.81 per game is well ahead of Union's 1.13, which suggests the visitors create the better chances and concede far fewer.

Union are likely to stay with a back four and a 4-2-3-1, with injury doubts at full-back and up front forcing a few selection calls. Dortmund should keep the 3-4-2-1 they have used in four of five league games.

Union Berlin: Rønnow; Trimmel, Querfeld, Köhn; Khedira, Kemlein; Haberer, Jeong, Skov; Burke.

Borussia Dortmund: Kobel; Anton, Schlotterbeck, Bensebaïni; Ryerson, Nmecha, Sabitzer, Svensson; Beier, Karetsas; Guirassy.

Kick-off at the Stadion An der Alten Försterei is at 14:30 BST on Saturday 17 October 2026. A UK broadcaster has not been confirmed for this fixture, and this page will be updated closer to kick-off. Sky Sports shows one Saturday 17:30 Bundesliga match each week, and the rest of the Saturday slate is not normally on live UK television.

The strongest angle is Dortmund's defensive record against Union's, with 0.8 goals conceded per game set against 3.4. The visitors are short at 4/7 for a reason, so the value may sit in the goals markets, where over 2.5 is 4/9 and 80% of the last ten meetings have cleared that line. Both teams to score is the market the data is least sure about, given Union have failed to score in two of five games.