Bayern München v RB Leipzig: Preview, predicted line-ups and betting tips
Bayern München chase the Bundesliga leaders at the Allianz Arena on Saturday, with RB Leipzig arriving on the back of a 6-0 win but with a poor away record.
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Leipzig arrive in Munich in the best attacking mood of any visitor Bayern have faced this season, and with the worst away record in the top five. Last Saturday they thrashed Eintracht Frankfurt 6-0 at home. Their two trips on the road have brought a 3-1 defeat at Werder Bremen and a 2-0 loss at Bayer Leverkusen.
Bayern, meanwhile, were held 2-2 at Augsburg a week ago after leading the way with a 7-0 demolition of Union Berlin at home on 18 September. They are unbeaten after five league games, but sit behind Freiburg and Dortmund. A home game against a side that has not won on the road all season is a chance to close that gap.
Bayern are third on 11 points from five games, with three wins and two draws. They have scored 16 goals, an average of 3.2 a game, and conceded four. The home record is startling: 12 goals scored and one conceded in two matches, including the 7-0 against Union Berlin and a 5-1 win over VfB Stuttgart on 28 August.
The away form is less emphatic. Bayern have drawn 0-0 at Schalke 04 and 2-2 at Augsburg, and won 2-1 at SV Elversberg. Three goals conceded in three away games is the only dent in an otherwise strong defensive record, and the underlying numbers back it up. Bayern's recent-form data shows an average expected goals figure of 3.5 for and 0.93 against.
Leipzig sit fifth on 9 points from five games, with a goal difference of plus 10 that matches Freiburg's at the top. Their home form is flawless: three wins, 14 goals scored and none conceded. Three clean sheets in five league games is a strong platform.
But the road is a different story. They have scored one goal in two away games and conceded five, an average of 2.5 against. Leipzig are in the Europa League places, and a result in Munich would be a statement. Their fans will take more encouragement from the Frankfurt result than from the away split.
Stats for Bayern München v RB Leipzig
- Bayern have scored 12 goals and conceded one in two home Bundesliga games in 2026/27, including a 7-0 win over Union Berlin on 18 September.
- Leipzig have lost both away league games this season, 3-1 at Werder Bremen on 5 September and 2-0 at Bayer Leverkusen on 20 September.
- Leipzig have won three home games out of three with a 14-0 aggregate score, including a 6-0 win over Eintracht Frankfurt on 10 October.
- Bayern average 70.4% possession and 9.4 corners a game across their last five, and concede 2.6 corners.
- Bayern have won three and drawn two of their five league games. Leipzig have won three and lost two.
Form guide ahead of Bayern München v RB Leipzig
Bayern's last five league games read three wins, two draws and no defeats, with 16 scored and four conceded. Leipzig's read three wins, two defeats, with 15 scored and five conceded. The goal tallies are close, but the contexts are not. All three of Leipzig's wins came at home, while their defeats came away from the Red Bull Arena, where they leaked five goals in two games. Bayern's two draws were both on the road, and they have played more away games than home so far. Surface form says Bayern are unbeaten and Leipzig are inconsistent. The home and away splits say the gap is wider than that.
Bayern München v RB Leipzig in the Bundesliga table
Bayern are third on 11 points from five games, two behind Freiburg and Dortmund, who both have 13. Leipzig are fifth on 9 points from five, one point behind fourth-placed Bayer Leverkusen on 10. Leipzig's goal difference of plus 10 equals Freiburg's, and Bayern's plus 12 is the best of anyone in the table.
A home win would take Bayern to 14 points and, depending on the other results, put them top of the table. A Leipzig win would lift them to 12 and level with Bayern's current points tally in the top four. It would also give them their first away win of the season, one that their form on the road does not make likely. A defeat for Bayern, who are still unbeaten, would be a surprise and open up the title race early.
Bayern München
RB LeipzigHead-to-head record: Bayern München v RB Leipzig
We do not have head-to-head figures for this fixture in the data supplied, so there are no meeting totals to quote. What we can say is that these two sides have regularly produced goals in this fixture over the years.
This season's numbers point the same way. Bayern's games have gone over 2.5 goals in four of five, and Leipzig's have too. Both teams scored in only three of Bayern's five and one of Leipzig's five, so the goals are tending to come from one side. That points to a Bayern win with Leipzig struggling to score more than once, which suggests backing the over line and treating both teams to score as a closer call.
Where this fixture is won and lost
The biggest gap is territory. Bayern average 70.4% possession against Leipzig's 55.4%, and 23.4 shots a game against 19. Bayern's average of 9.4 corners for and 2.6 against shows how much of the game is played in the opposition half.
The second gap is chance quality at the back. Bayern's expected goals against is 0.93 a game, compared with 1.37 for Leipzig. Leipzig have the firepower to hurt Bayern, having scored 15 in five, but with Bayern pressing from the front, they will have few counter-attacking chances. That is where the match will be decided.
Predicted line-ups for Bayern München v RB Leipzig
Bayern have played a 4-2-3-1 in all five league games, and there is little reason to change. Leipzig have used a 4-3-3 in three of their five and a 4-2-3-1 in the other two. Both line-ups are our best guess, with no confirmed team news at the time of writing.
**Bayern München: Upamecano, Tah, Davies; Kimmich, Laimer; Olise, Musiala
RB Leipzig: Vandevoordt; Henrichs, Orbán, Lukeba, Raum; Seiwald, Baumgartner, Ouédraogo; Nusa, Gruda
Key differentials · last 10 league games
| Metric | Bayern München | RB Leipzig | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals scored | 3.2 | 3 | Bayern |
| Avg goals conceded | 0.8 | 1 | Bayern |
| Avg shots on target | 9 | 7 | Bayern |
| Avg possession % | 70.4 | 55.4 | Bayern |
| Avg corners for | 9.4 | 6 | Bayern |
| xG for / against | 3.5 / 0.93 | 2.58 / 1.37 | Bayern |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 3 | RB |
| Failed to score | 1 | 1 | Level |
| BTTS rate | 3/5 | 1/5 | Level |
| Over 2.5 rate | 4/5 | 4/5 | Level |
Where to watch Bayern München v RB Leipzig: TV and online streams
The game kicks off at 17:30 BST on Saturday 17 October at the Allianz Arena. A UK broadcaster has not been confirmed for this fixture, and this page will be updated closer to kick-off. Sky Sports shows one Saturday 17:30 Bundesliga game a week, and the rest of the Saturday slate is not on live UK TV.
Bayern München v RB Leipzig betting tips
The value sits in the goals markets rather than the match result. Bayern are short, but their home games average 6.0 goals scored so far, and four of their five league games this season have gone over 2.5 goals. Leipzig's own over 2.5 rate is the same. The bet builder below pairs the home win with the goals line and H.