Real Betis v Barcelona: Preview, predicted line-ups and betting tips

Real Betis have spent the season so far making a case that they belong in the top four. Last Sunday they hammered Osasuna 5-2 at home, their biggest win of the campaign. Now they face the one side in La Liga that has not dropped a point.

Barcelona arrive at Estadio de La Cartuja on 24 points from 24, five clear of Betis and Atletico Madrid. They beat Getafe 3-0 last Saturday and have scored at least two in every league game. Betis have a home record to be proud of, but this is a different level of test.

Betis sit third on 19 points from eight games, level with Atletico Madrid, who are second on goal difference. Six wins, one draw and one defeat is a fine return. They beat Real Madrid 1-0 at home on 4 September and have won all four home matches, scoring eight and conceding two.

The road has been less kind. Betis lost 5-2 at Levante on 29 August and have conceded seven in four away games. They have also scored 7 of their 14 league goals between the 31st and 45th minutes, so first-half spells before the break matter to them.

Barcelona have made a habit of overwhelming opponents. They have won 7-2 against Racing Santander, 5-0 at Valencia and 5-0 at Elche. Raphinha leads the league scoring charts with 12 goals from 19 shots, 16 of them on target, and three of those goals have been penalties.

The defence has been less watertight than the scoreline suggests. Barcelona have conceded in four of eight league games, but only seven goals in total. For Betis that is the opening: the visitors will concede, but probably not enough to matter.

Betis have won six, drawn one and lost one of their last eight in all competitions, with their only defeat that heavy loss at Levante. They have scored in every game and kept four clean sheets. Barcelona have won all eight, scoring 4.25 goals per game and conceding 0.88. The surface gap is wide, but Betis's expected goals figures (1.74 for, 1.86 against) suggest they have been a little fortunate to concede only 1.13 a game. Barcelona's xG of 3.81 for and 0.97 against says the numbers are not flattering them at all.

Barcelona lead with 24 points from eight games and a goal difference of plus 27. Betis are third on 19 points, plus five, and sit one point clear of Real Madrid in fourth on 18. Sevilla, fifth on 14, are five points behind Betis.

A win would cut the gap at the top to two points and keep Betis in the title picture. A defeat would leave them eight behind Barcelona and open to Real Madrid, who have a game in hand on nobody but are level on games played.

We do not have a head-to-head summary for this fixture, so the history is not quoted here. What the supplied data does show is that both sides score freely. Betis have scored in all eight league games and Barcelona in all eight.

That points to goals at La Cartuja. Barcelona have gone over 2.5 goals in seven of eight league games, Betis in three of eight. The likeliest shape is a Barcelona win with Betis getting one back, which is why we lean towards both teams to score and a correct score of 3-1 to the visitors.

The biggest gap is in front of goal. Barcelona average 4.25 goals from 21.63 shots a game, 8.25 on target. Betis average 1.75 from 17.75 shots, 6.5 on target.

Possession is the second. Barcelona hold 70.3% of the ball and concede only 2.5 corners a game. Betis have 53.8% and concede 6.63 corners. If Barcelona pin Betis back, the hosts will rely on the counter-attack and set pieces, and their first-half goal record offers some hope.

Betis have used a 4-2-3-1 in seven of their eight league games and should stick with it. Barcelona have mostly lined up in a 4-3-3, and a similar shape is expected here. Neither team news nor a confirmed XI was available when this was written, so both sides are predictions.

Real Betis: Vallés; Bellerín, Natan, Bartra, Fran García; Roca, Fidalgo; Antony, Isco, Ezzalzouli; Parrott

Barcelona: Joan García; Koundé, Cubarsí, Christensen, Balde; De Jong, Pedri, Olmo; Yamal, Gabriel Jesus, Raphinha

The game kicks off at 17:30 BST on Saturday 17 October at Estadio de La Cartuja. La Liga rights in the UK are held by Premier Sports, so it is shown on Premier Sports where selected. We could not confirm the exact channel for this fixture, and this page will be updated if that changes.

The value sits in Barcelona's goals rather than the win price. They have gone over 2.5 goals in seven of eight league games, and Betis have scored in all eight of theirs. Raphinha anchors the bet builder, with 12 goals from 19 shots this season.