Aston Villa v Liverpool prediction, lineups & team news: Champions League place on the line at Villa Park

Unai Emery is preparing Aston Villa for one of the biggest weeks in the club's modern history, and the scheduling gods have given him the hardest possible warm-up act. Five days before Villa fly to Istanbul for a Europa League final against SC Freiburg, they host Liverpool in a Premier League fixture that carries its own enormous stakes. Win and Champions League football for 2026-27 is confirmed. Lose, and the final day at Manchester City starts to look a great deal more daunting.

The two sides could not be more evenly matched on paper. Both sit on 59 points after 36 games, with Liverpool occupying fourth place solely on goal difference, an eight-goal advantage that means anything short of a heavy Villa win delivers the higher finish to the visitors. Villa's route to this point has been anything but smooth. They had a 10-point cushion inside the top five as recently as mid-April, only to win once in five league games since. A 2-1 home defeat to Tottenham, a side that would finish in the bottom three, was followed by a 1-0 loss at Fulham, before a 2-2 draw at Burnley last Sunday squandered another chance to seal their fate. The consolation is that Villa also thrashed Nottingham Forest 4-0 in their Europa League semi-final second leg during that same fortnight, booking their place in a European final for the first time since 1982.

Liverpool's form is not much prettier. Arne Slot's side drew 1-1 at home to an out-of-form Chelsea last weekend, and lost 3-2 at Old Trafford on May 3. They have eight away defeats from 18 trips this season, and Slot has been candid about why. "We've dropped points in away games against teams where we usually don't drop points," the head coach told reporters on Thursday, "and that has this season happened far too many times after playing in Europe." Villa away, he added, will always be a different test entirely, regardless of what is or is not at stake for the home side.

Emery is well aware that his players could have one eye on Istanbul, and he is not pretending otherwise. "I am so motivated, so excited for the match," the Villa manager said. "It is going to be a test against them for which team is, in this moment, better than the other. In the table we have the same points of course, but it's Liverpool and it's going to be very difficult, it's a huge challenge." That is honest. The concern for Villa is that they were similarly flat before their semi-final second leg against Forest, losing 3-0 at home to Tottenham in the game before it, and Liverpool will be hoping for the same distracted performance again.

Aston Villa: Martinez; Cash, Konsa, Torres, Maatsen; Tielemans, McGinn; Rogers, Barkley, Buendia; Watkins

Liverpool: Mamardashvili; Jones, Konate, Van Dijk, Kerkez; Gravenberch, Mac Allister; Frimpong, Szoboszlai, Gakpo; Isak

Aston Villa v Liverpool kicks off at 8:00pm BST on Friday, 15 May at Villa Park. The match is live in the UK on Sky Sports Premier League and Sky Sports Main Event, with coverage beginning at 7:00pm BST.