AS Roma v Genoa prediction, predicted line-ups and betting tips

Roma's season has had a rhythm to it so far: four wins, then a pair of draws that felt more like a pause for breath than a wobble.

The latest of those was a goalless afternoon at Como last Sunday, a point that kept them unbeaten and in the top three.

Saturday night at the Stadio Olimpico gives them a chance to restart the winning habit against opponents who are, to put it kindly, in a spot of bother.

Genoa beat Fiorentina 2-1 at home last weekend, only their second league win of the season, and it came after a run of four defeats in five.

The question is whether that was a turning point or simply a pleasant interruption.

Roma sit third on 14 points from six games, with a goal difference of plus 11 that only Inter can better in the top three.

They are two points behind Inter and Lazio at the top, and one clear of Cagliari in fourth. That makes every dropped point at home matter.

The goals have come in bursts. Roma beat Fiorentina and Lecce 4-0 in successive matches in late August, then won 2-1 against Atalanta and 2-0 at Torino.

After that came a 2-2 draw at home to Inter and the goalless draw at Como.

The defence is the quiet story, with four clean sheets in six and three goals conceded in total, none of them away from home.

Genoa's season has been a struggle at both ends of the pitch.

They have scored five goals in six league games, an average of 0.83, and have conceded 11, which is 1.83 a game. They have not kept a clean sheet yet.

The win over Fiorentina came after defeats to Napoli, Lazio and Como, a draw with Frosinone and a 2-1 loss at Parma.

On the road they have lost both league games and scored once.

For Genoa this is about stopping the rot before it sets in, and a point in Rome would feel like a decent night's work.

Roma's last six reads four wins, two draws and no defeats, and the draws were against Inter and a Como side now seventh in the table, which is hardly shameful.

Genoa's last six reads one win, one draw and four defeats, with the sole victory arriving last weekend.

The surface numbers point firmly one way, and the underlying ones agree: Roma's average expected goals of 2.45 per game sits well above Genoa's 1.05.

The one caveat is that Genoa have just won, and a first win can loosen a side up.

Roma are third with 14 points from six games, one ahead of fourth-placed Cagliari on 13 and two behind Inter and Lazio on 16. All three of those sides sit in the Champions League places.

A win would put Roma level with the leaders on 17 at least until they play, and would keep Cagliari and AC Milan, on 12, at arm's length.

Genoa's win last weekend lifted them off a bad run, but their record of one win from six leaves them looking nervously down rather than up.

Defeat in Rome would leave them with five losses in seven, and that is the sort of run that starts to test a dressing room.

We have no verified head-to-head figures to hand for this meeting, so the numbers here stay with this season's evidence instead.

Roma have kept four clean sheets in six games and scored in five of them. Genoa have scored in four of six, but have conceded in all six.

That suggests a one-sided shape to the match rather than an open one.

The goals market is less clear cut. Four of Roma's six games have gone over 2.5 goals, but that includes their two 4-0 wins, and Genoa's own games have gone over 2.5 three times.

The lean is towards Roma scoring and Genoa struggling to, which points to both teams not scoring being a fair price.

The biggest gap is at the back. Roma's expected goals against averages 0.81 per game, while Genoa's is 1.34, and the real figures are wider still, at 0.5 goals conceded a game against 1.83.

The second is in the final third. Roma average 18.67 shots and 6.17 on target, Genoa 11.5 and 3.17.

That is a lot of work for the visiting goalkeeper, and a lot of quiet evenings for Roma's.

Possession is closer, at 53.7 per cent against 45.8, but Genoa will probably sit deep, and the key is whether Roma can break them down before the 76-90 minute spell, when 28.57 per cent of Roma's goals have come.

Roma have started five of six games in a 3-4-2-1, and that is the likeliest shape again. Genoa have used the same system three times but have tried four different formations, so their set-up is harder to call.

These are predictions based on recent shape and the supplied squads, not confirmed teams.

AS Roma: Svilar; Mancini, Ndicka, Hermoso; Wesley, Cristante, Koné, Pellegrini; Soulé, Dybala; Malen

Genoa: Bijlow; Østigård, Vásquez, Marcandalli; Sabelli, Frendrup, Sow, Messias; Colombo

Kick-off at the Stadio Olimpico is 19:45 BST on Saturday 17 October 2026.

In the UK, Serie A is shown on DAZN where selected, though a confirmed channel or stream for this specific fixture has not been published yet. This page will be updated closer to kick-off if that changes.

The strongest angle is at the back. Roma have conceded three goals all season and Genoa have not kept a clean sheet, so the home win and a Genoa blank both look better value than the goals lines.

The total goals market is the trickier one, because Roma's two 4-0 wins skew it. We have leaned towards the tighter outcomes, with Malen the obvious name for the scorer pick.