Alaves v Atletico Madrid prediction: lineups, team news and tips

Alaves have won four of their last five home league games this season but arrive at this one having lost back to back at Mendizorrotza, beaten by Valencia and then undone on the road at Racing Santander before a goalless draw at Athletic Club broke the slide. Atletico Madrid, by contrast, have barely paused for breath. Five wins in their last seven have lifted them to second in La Liga, nine points off leaders Barcelona but with a game in hand still to play.

Atletico's form has been built on goals. They have scored 16 times in their last seven matches at an average of 2.29 a game, with six of those seven games going over 2.5 goals. A 2-1 win over Real Madrid and a 4-0 thrashing of Osasuna either side of a 3-0 win at Real Sociedad have carried them into the top two, even with a 3-0 defeat at Athletic Club sitting awkwardly in the middle of that run.

Alaves sit sixth with 11 points from seven games, a position that still has them in the Conference League playoff picture rather than fighting relegation. Three wins from their opening five games, including a 5-2 win over Osasuna and a 1-0 win over Villarreal, set a promising early tone. Back to back defeats either side of that Osasuna win have since taken some gloss off the start, and a trip into this one against the form team in the division is a stern examination of whether the early-season optimism was built on anything substantial.

Alaves have taken three wins, two draws and two defeats from their last seven in all competitions, a solid if unspectacular return that has them sixth in La Liga. Atletico have been considerably sharper, five wins and only a single defeat from their last seven, and that defeat came away at Athletic Club rather than against one of the bigger names. The gap in recent output is real. Atletico have scored 16 in their last seven to Alaves' 11, and conceded seven to Alaves' six, despite Atletico facing a tougher run of opponents including Real Madrid.

Atletico Madrid sit second with 16 points from seven games, five points clear of fifth-placed Sevilla and nine adrift of Barcelona at the top. A win here keeps the pressure on the leaders heading into the next international break. Alaves are sixth on 11 points, inside the Conference League qualification picture but only five points above the bottom three with the table still bunched together after seven rounds. A win would be Alaves' first over a top-three side this season and would push them level with Real Betis on points, while a heavy defeat would be a reminder of the gap that still exists between them and the division's leading clubs.

Atletico have the clear historical edge in this fixture, winning six of the last ten meetings to Alaves' two, with two draws. The average of 2.1 goals per game across those ten matches is a modest return, both teams have scored in exactly half of them, and only four of the ten have gone over 2.5 goals. The most recent meeting, in January 2026, finished 1-0 to Atletico at the Metropolitano.

That H2H picture, a competitive goals average but a lopsided result split, lines up with how this fixture tends to play out: Atletico control games against Alaves without always running up the score. The under 2.5 goals line has hit more often than not across the sample, and with Atletico's recent form built on efficient finishing rather than total goal avalanches, a repeat of that pattern, a comfortable away win rather than a rout, looks the likelier outcome than a repeat of either side's most expansive recent scorelines.

The biggest gap in the underlying numbers is control of the ball and the box. Atletico have averaged 57.1% possession in their last seven games to Alaves' 42.1%, and they are generating 6.43 shots on target per game to Alaves' 4.43. Atletico have also conceded only three corners per game in that span, against Alaves' 5.14 conceded, a sign of how rarely teams are getting into dangerous areas against them. If Alaves are to cause an upset, it will have to come from the sort of compact, counter-punching performance that beat Villarreal and Osasuna earlier this season rather than from matching Atletico for territory.

Alaves go into this one without three regulars through injury and suspension, which should keep the back four largely as selected over the last month. Atletico have no fresh fitness concerns reported and should field close to their strongest available group.

Alaves: Owono; Yusi, Tenaglia, Diarra, Jonny; Blanco, Benavidez; Alena, Denis Suarez, Guevara; Boye

Atletico Madrid: Oblak; Pubill, Le Normand, Hancko, Grimaldo; Barrios, Hjulmand, Koke; Lookman, Alvarez, Baena

Kick-off at Estadio Mendizorrotza is at 15:15 BST on Saturday 10 October 2026. The game is shown on Premier Sports where selected for UK viewers. This is not the Saturday night primetime fixture, so it falls outside Disney+'s weekly exclusive slot.

Atletico's superior shot and possession numbers make the away win the strongest angle on the card, but the goals markets are where the value sits once you weigh the head-to-head history against this season's form. The full breakdown, plus a three-leg bet builder, follows below.