Wolves v West Brom prediction: Black Country derby preview, lineups and tips

Wolves arrive at this Black Country derby under a head coach who was not in the building when the two clubs last met. César Peixoto took over at Molineux in the summer, and his side have started life in the Championship with genuine promise, a run capped by a first clean sheet of the campaign at Sheffield United last weekend. West Brom, by contrast, have been the division's form side over the past month, winning four of their last six league outings. Something has to give at Molineux on Sunday lunchtime.

Wolves' rebuild under Peixoto has produced a division-high scoring rate at home, with the club's own figures showing an average of 3.0 goals scored per game at Molineux this season against 1.5 conceded. Across their last six matches in all competitions they have won three, drawn two and lost only once, a run that included a 4-1 win over Stoke City and a 3-1 away success at Preston. A report following their derby-week win over Sheffield United put Wolves three points behind leaders West Ham with a game in hand, having kept their first clean sheet of the Championship campaign in that match.

The attacking numbers back up the eye test. Wolves have scored 13 goals in their opening matches this season against 10 conceded, and their recent-form data shows an expected-goals figure of 1.87 per 90 minutes for, against 1.06 against. Only once in their last six have they failed to find the net, and five of those six matches have finished with both teams scoring.

West Brom's turnaround has been built on a tighter defensive base. The visitors have kept two clean sheets in their last seven matches and conceded just once at home across four league games this season, a record reflected in an average of 0.7 goals conceded per game at The Hawthorns. Four wins from their last six, including back-to-back victories over Watford and Derby, have lifted them to fourth in the table on 14 points from seven games.

That form has come with defensive solidity rather than goals. West Brom have scored only 1.43 goals per game across their last seven and managed just one shot on target fewer than their average of four per match, numbers that suggest they may have to graft for chances against a Wolves side conceding at home.

Wolves' most recent five results read D-W-W-L-D, a run that includes back-to-back wins either side of a heavy loss at West Ham. West Brom's read W-W-L-D-W-W, the stronger sequence on paper and one built on four wins from six. However, West Brom's results have mostly come against sides in the bottom half, while Wolves have taken points from West Ham and Birmingham near the top. The surface form favours the visitors, but the underlying attacking numbers still lean towards the home side.

West Brom sit fourth in the Championship on 14 points from seven games, three points off top spot with a goal difference of plus three. Wolves are not far behind; a report following their win at Sheffield United placed them three points off leaders West Ham with a game in hand, meaning a win here would take them above West Brom and into the automatic promotion picture. For West Brom, three points would consolidate a play-off position built largely on defensive resilience rather than goals scored. For Wolves, it would extend a Molineux revival under a new head coach and put daylight between them and a West Brom side they have not beaten since 2021.

The two sides have met seven times in the fixture data supplied, with Wolves winning three, West Brom two and two finishing level. The average of 3.29 goals per meeting sits well above this season's Championship norm, and 71% of those meetings have produced goals at both ends. The last meeting came in the FA Cup on 28 January 2024, when West Brom won 2-0 at The Hawthorns.

That scoreline is the outlier rather than the pattern. Across the seven meetings, 43% have gone over 2.5 goals and the average has been driven by several high-scoring games, including a 5-1 Wolves win and a 3-2 home win for the hosts. Given both sides' current attacking and defensive numbers, a repeat of the low-scoring FA Cup tie looks less likely than a return to the derby's habit of goals at both ends.

The clearest gap between the sides is in shot volume. Wolves are averaging 16.17 shots per game in their last six matches to West Brom's 10.29, and Wolves' expected-goals figure of 1.87 for is well clear of West Brom's 1.16. Wolves also hold an edge in possession, averaging 55% to West Brom's 52.7% across their recent matches. West Brom's counter is defensive discipline: two clean sheets in seven games and an average of just 1.0 goals conceded, built on a settled back line. The tactical battle is Wolves' volume of chances against West Brom's structure out of possession.

Wolves have used a 4-2-3-1 shape in four of their five matches this season and are expected to stick with it, though the absence of two forwards through injury forces a reshuffle up top. West Brom's settled back four should remain intact behind a midfield picked for its work rate against Wolves' possession game.

Wolves: Sá; Trippier, Toti Gomes, S. Bueno, Hugo Bueno; André, Munetsi; Bellegarde, Fer López, Rodrigo Gomes; Mane

West Brom: Ingram; Townsend, Mepham, Styles, Phillips; Molumby, Price, Myhre; Heggebø, Stewart, Bray

Kick-off at Molineux is 12:00 BST on Sunday 20 September. The match is shown live on Sky Sports, with the stream also available via Sky Sports+, after Sky selected the Black Country derby for its Sunday lunchtime slot.

Wolves' shot volume and home scoring rate make the hosts the strongest lean on the coupon, but West Brom's defensive numbers and the derby's history of goals at both ends open up value elsewhere. The markets below cover the result, the goals lines and the individual pick most likely to settle it.