Venezia v Napoli: Preview, predicted line-ups and betting tips

Venezia have played six Serie A games this season and lost every one. They have no points, five goals scored and 16 conceded, and a penalty miss along the way. Their last outing was a 3-1 defeat at Atalanta on Monday 12 October.

Napoli are the next visitors to the Stadio Pierluigi Penzo, and they come in on a high. They beat Frosinone 3-0 at home last Saturday. They have lost twice this term, to Como and to Inter, and are otherwise functioning as a side that scores in every game.

Kick-off is at 14:00 BST. For the hosts it is a chance to stop a slide that has already run to a full month and a half.

The losing run began on 23 August with a 2-0 home defeat by Lecce. Since then Venezia have lost 2-0 at AC Milan, 3-2 at Frosinone, 4-2 at home to Fiorentina, 2-0 at home to Lazio and 3-1 at Atalanta. They have failed to score in three of the six.

The problem is at the back. They have conceded 8 goals at home and 8 away, 2.7 per game either way, and have not kept a clean sheet. Opponents have scored in all six games and gone past 1.5 goals every time.

The underlying numbers are slightly kinder. Venezia average 58.3% possession and 14.8 shots per game, with an expected goals figure of 1.83 for and 2.35 against. They create chances, but they do not finish them and they give up too many.

Napoli have won three, drawn one and lost two of their six, scoring 10 and conceding 6. Their season form reads WLLWDW, ending with the 3-0 win over Frosinone.

They have scored in every game and kept three clean sheets, two of them at home. Their away record is one win, one draw and one defeat, with four goals conceded in three trips, so they are a little more porous on the road.

A win would keep them in touch with the top-seven group. A slip at the bottom club would be a proper setback.

Venezia's record across their last six is no wins, no draws and six defeats, with 0.83 goals scored and 2.67 conceded per game. Napoli's is three wins, one draw and two defeats, at 1.67 scored and 1.00 conceded. Napoli have scored in all six and not been held scoreless once, while Venezia have drawn a blank three times. The one caution is Napoli's two defeats, 2-1 to Como at home and 3-2 at Inter, which show they can be got at when they are stretched. Venezia's chances are real in the xG numbers, but the results say those chances are not going in.

Venezia have played six and have no points, which puts them at the foot of the table. Napoli have 10 points from six, one behind seventh-placed Juventus on 11 and three short of fourth-placed Frosinone, who have 13 from seven. Inter and Lazio lead the way on 16 each.

Napoli are close enough to the pack to make every game count. A win here would carry them level with or past several sides in a congested middle. For Venezia the arithmetic is already ugly. Another defeat would make it seven without a point and push the gap to safety further out of reach.

The sides have met four times in the last decade of data, all in Serie A. Napoli have won three, there has been one draw and Venezia have not won. Meetings average 1.25 goals, and none of the four has seen both teams score or more than 2.5 goals in total. The last meeting was a 0-0 draw at the Penzo on 16 March 2025. Before that Napoli won 1-0 at home on 29 December 2024, 2-0 at Venezia on 6 February 2022 and 2-0 at home on 22 August 2021.

The pattern is low-scoring and one-sided, but the teams in it are different now. Venezia's defence has leaked 2.7 goals per game this season, so the old under-2.5 lean looks out of date. The one thing that does carry over is that Venezia have not scored against Napoli in any of the four. A Napoli win to nil is a reasonable lean, and the correct-score market should be focused on 2-0 and 3-0.

The biggest gap is at the back. Napoli concede 1.00 goals per game and have three clean sheets, against Venezia's 2.67 and none. Then there is goals scored, where Napoli average 1.67 to the hosts' 0.83.

The third is expected goals against, 1.47 for Napoli and 2.35 for Venezia. Venezia have the ball, with 58.3% possession to Napoli's 50.2%, but they are giving up the bigger chances and then not taking their own. Napoli can sit back and counter, and the data suggests that is where the game goes.

Kick-off is at 14:00 BST on Saturday 17 October at the Stadio Pierluigi Penzo. A UK broadcaster for this fixture has not been confirmed yet. This page will be updated closer to kick-off once rights are verified.

The strongest angle is the goals market, with Over 2.5 Goals at 13/20. Venezia have conceded three or more in three of six games and Napoli can score in bunches. The Napoli win sits at 7/10, and a Højlund goal anchors the builder. The H2H under-2.5 pattern is the main counter-argument and we have put it to one side.