USA v Paraguay prediction, lineups & tips: World Cup 2026 Group D opener

The USA open their FIFA World Cup 2026 campaign at SoFi Stadium against a Paraguay side that won't roll over. Our full preview, predicted lineups and betting tips.

Jon Fisher

Published

Fri 12 Jun, 09:25

Updated

Mon 22 Jun, 11:44

Mauricio Pochettino finally gets his first FIFA World Cup 2026 game as a manager on Saturday, and it comes with the full weight of co-host expectation behind it. The USA open Group D at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles against Paraguay, a side that finished sixth in CONMEBOL qualifying but arrived here having beaten Argentina, Brazil and Uruguay along the way. This is not a fixture the Stars and Stripes can afford to take lightly, and, to their credit, Pochettino is not doing so.

USA

4–1

Full time

Paraguay

Sat 13 Jun, 02:00•SoFi Stadium

The USA were spared the grind of CONCACAF qualifying, giving Pochettino almost two years to build a high-pressing, transition-heavy side around Christian Pulisic, Tyler Adams and Weston McKennie. The preparation has not been entirely smooth. The Americans won just one of their four friendlies in 2026, beating Senegal 3-2 before losing to Belgium, Portugal and Germany. That 2-1 defeat to Germany last week, despite Antonee Robinson's brilliant leveller, raised questions about the defence Pochettino plans to field here.

There is genuine optimism, though. Ranked 16th in the world, the USA have reached the knockout stage in each of their last three World Cup appearances. At Qatar 2022 they went out in the round of 16, beaten 3-1 by the Netherlands. Pochettino wants more, considerably more. Asked at Thursday's pre-match press conference what would constitute success this summer, he was unambiguous. "For me, successful is to win," he said. "It's win tomorrow, and win after that. If we don't arrive to the final, and we don't win the World Cup, how can we talk about 'successful?'"

Paraguay's route to this tournament was dramatic. Gustavo Alfaro, the third Argentinian coach to take charge of La Albirroja at a World Cup, took over in August 2024 with the team having collected just five points from their opening six qualifying matches. He assembled a nine-game unbeaten run that included home wins over Argentina and Uruguay, and Paraguay confirmed their place at the tournament with a 0-0 draw against Ecuador in their 17th fixture.

Their defence was the foundation of it all. Paraguay kept ten clean sheets and conceded only ten goals across all 18 CONMEBOL qualifying games. They scored just 14, the joint-third fewest in the section. This is a team built to frustrate, to cede possession, and to hurt you on the counter or from a set piece. Alfaro describes his philosophy plainly. When he arrived he spoke of "Paraguayan DNA, intensity and clean sheets" as the pillars of everything. It worked.

Last 6 · most recent left

USA

No recent formW0 D0 L0

Paraguay

No recent formW0 D0 L0

Last 2 meetings · most recent first

Home wins

Draws

Away wins

Goals · H / A

6 / 2

Pochettino spoke at Thursday's press conference about respect for his opposite number. "Paraguay know only how to be competitive and aggressive," he said. "Gustavo Alfaro is doing a great job and I think it's going to be really tough." He added that all 26 players in the squad are available for selection and that the time for motivational speeches has passed. "I said to the players, don't expect an unbelievable speech on Friday," Pochettino told reporters. "If you are not ready, it's impossible to perform."

Team news for USA v Paraguay

USA: The big news is that Chris Richards, the Crystal Palace centre-back who tore two ankle ligaments in May, completed a full training session earlier this week and Pochettino confirmed on Thursday that he is available for selection. Whether Richards starts or begins on the bench is still undecided. Matt Freese is expected to start in goal after establishing himself as Pochettino's first choice since the CONCACAF Gold Cup. Gio Reyna was included in the squad despite not starting for Mönchengladbach since December, a calculated risk from the manager.

Paraguay: Julio Enciso is doubtful after suffering a thigh injury in the 4-0 warm-up win over Nicaragua, though he has since been seen training with the ball. Damian Bobadilla had a knee issue but returned to full training and is expected to start in midfield. Gustavo Gomez captains from centre-back. Antonio Sanabria leads the attack, having scored four goals in CONMEBOL qualifying.

Pochettino is expected to set his side up in a back three, with Ream at its heart and Richards potentially slotting back in alongside him. Balogun appears the favourite to lead the line ahead of Pepi and Wright, with Pulisic and Tillman operating in the two behind him. For Paraguay, Alfaro's preferred 4-4-2 should see Sanabria partner whoever is fit up front, with Almiron driving from midfield.

USA: Freese; McKenzie, Richards, Ream; Dest, Adams, McKennie, A Robinson; Tillman, Pulisic; Balogun

Paraguay: R Fernandez; Alderete, G Gomez, Alonso, Sanchez; Almiron, Bobadilla, D Gomez, Caballero; Enciso, Sanabria

USA v Paraguay kicks off at 02:00 BST on Saturday, 13 June 2026. The match is being broadcast live in the UK on BBC One, with streaming available on BBC iPlayer. In the United States, coverage is on Fox Sports and Telemundo.

The USA hold a 4-2-2 overall record against Paraguay, with four wins in their last seven meetings, including a 2-1 friendly victory in Philadelphia in November 2025.
This is only the second World Cup meeting between the sides; the USA won the first 3-0 in 1930, with Bert Patenaude scoring the first hat-trick in World Cup history.
Paraguay won just one of eight World Cup openers before this fixture (D4 L3), and have never beaten a host nation in a World Cup game.
Paraguay conceded only ten goals in 18 CONMEBOL qualifying fixtures, keeping ten clean sheets, but scored just 14 goals, joint-third fewest in the section.
The USA have reached the knockout stage in each of their last three World Cup appearances (2010, 2014, 2022).

Headline prediction · our pick

✓ HitConfidence · medium

match result: usa to win

Paraguay will sit deep, absorb pressure and look to hit the USA on the counter. Alfaro has built a side that concedes very little, ten goals in 18 qualifying games is a serious defensive record, but they don't score freely either, and the USA's pace in behind through Pulisic and Balogun should eventually find a way through. The home crowd, the quality of Pochettino's front three and a head-to-head record that strongly favours the Stars and Stripes all point the same way. A narrow win is the most likely outcome.

Best Price13/18bet365 · score 2-0

✓ Prediction landed

TIP 01✗ Miss

Correct Score: 2-0

Paraguay kept ten clean sheets in 18 CONMEBOL qualifying games and all four of their qualifying defeats came by a 1-0 scoreline. That defensive solidity makes a high-scoring game unlikely. The USA, however, have the quality in Pulisic and Balogun to find two, and Paraguay's limited attacking output, 14 goals in qualifying, makes a clean sheet for Freese a credible outcome. A 2-0 win for the co-hosts reflects the most plausible scenario: the USA controlling the game and breaking the low block twice without conceding.

TIP 02✗ Miss

Over 2.5 Goals: Under

Paraguay's last four competitive fixtures all featured fewer than three goals, and their CONMEBOL qualifying average was under 1.4 goals per game. The USA's warm-up form has also produced tight results, three of their four 2026 friendlies were decided by a single goal. Alfaro's setup is designed to keep things narrow and grind, not to open up. Under 2.5 goals is a pattern that follows both of these teams into this fixture.

TIP 03✗ Miss

Both Teams to Score: No

Paraguay scored in only seven of Alfaro's qualifying matches and their attacking quality without a fully fit Enciso is limited to Sanabria and the creativity of Almiron and Diego Gomez. The USA, when Richards starts at the back, have a formidable defensive unit. In the November 2025 friendly between these sides, the USA won 2-1, but both teams scoring is far from a given when Paraguay are playing from a low defensive block on the road, or in this case, on US soil, against a well-organised American defence.

TIP 04✗ Miss

Anytime Goalscorer: Christian Pulisic

Pulisic was involved in all three USA goals at Qatar 2022 and has been described by Pochettino as the team's creative engine and the man around whom the attack is built. He arrived in camp in good form after his season at AC Milan and looked sharp in the 2-1 defeat to Germany last week. Paraguay are not particularly large at the back and Pulisic's movement into the box from the left should create chances from set pieces and open play alike. He is the most likely USA goalscorer.

TIP 05✓ Hit

Double Chance: Home or Draw

Paraguay won just one of eight World Cup openers in their history, and have never beaten a host nation at a World Cup. They beat the USA just twice in ten all-time meetings. A draw or a USA win covers the vast majority of plausible outcomes in this fixture, and given the gap in preparation time, home advantage and individual quality, it represents the safest structure in the market. The 1.22 reflects a narrow margin but the underlying data supports it.

Build the USA v Paraguay bet

BetFootball Builder · 3 Legs✗ Miss

Home Win

✓ Hit

Match Result

13/18

The anchor leg. The USA carry home advantage, a positive recent head-to-head record, and a squad loaded with quality across the pitch. Adding this to the over/under and goalscorer legs keeps the builder balanced without stacking correlated results, a USA win does not depend on a specific scoreline.

✗ Miss

Both Teams to Score

2/3

This complements the home win leg by leaning into Paraguay's defensive identity without requiring a specific scoreline. A 2-0 or 1-0 USA win both deliver this leg. It's the reverse of a BTTS Yes leg, which would work against the low-block, low-scoring pattern Alfaro has built across his entire tenure with Paraguay.

Christian Pulisic

✗ Miss

Anytime Goalscorer

3/2

This rounds out the builder by identifying the most likely source of the USA's winning goal without being directly correlated to the match result leg. Pulisic scoring a goal in a USA win where Paraguay don't score is the cleanest path through all three legs simultaneously. He is the central creative figure in Pochettino's attack and the most likely player on either side to find the net.

Combined Price

68/11

Stake£10.00

Returns£71.81

Profit+£61.81

World Cup · season 2026 · Group DLive snapshot