USA v Belgium prediction, lineups and betting tips: World Cup 2026 round of 16

The most contentious storyline of the FIFA World Cup 2026 so far has come off the pitch, and it will follow USA v Belgium all the way to the Lumen Field kick-off on Tuesday. FIFA's decision to overturn Folarin Balogun's red card suspension, a ban that appeared clear-cut and non-appellable under the governing body's own rules, has put the tournament in an awkward spotlight ahead of one of the most-anticipated round-of-16 ties.

Belgium head coach Rudi Garcia made no secret of his fury when FIFA announced on 5 July that Balogun's one-match ban had been suspended under Article 27 of the FIFA Disciplinary Code. "I didn't know that at the World Cup, the 5th of July is actually the first of April, it's April Fools' Day," Garcia told reporters in Seattle. The Royal Belgian Football Association described itself as "astonished" by the ruling and said it was investigating all potential options, including a formal protest.

The New York Times reported that President Donald Trump called FIFA president Gianni Infantino to ask the governing body to review the ban. Trump subsequently posted on Truth Social thanking FIFA for "reversing a great injustice." It appears to be only the second known instance of FIFA suspending a World Cup red-card ban.

Pochettino, for his part, played down any personal involvement. "The Federation was working very hard," he said at his pre-match press conference. "JT [Batson, the chief executive of US Soccer] and the whole Federation were trying to defend our situation." He added that the US had been "punished enough" by the original red card incident.

The Americans arrive in good shape otherwise. Pochettino's side won Group C with three wins from four, finishing top despite a 3-2 defeat to Türkiye in their second fixture. They beat Bosnia and Herzegovina 2-0 in their final group game, the match in which Balogun received his now-lifted red card, and have scored 10 goals in four World Cup games at an average of 2.5 per game. Home form has been a strength: three wins from three on US soil, conceding just once.

Belgium qualified from their group with two wins and two draws, their most convincing performance a 5-1 thrashing of New Zealand away. They edged Senegal 3-2 in their final group fixture to set up this tie. Garcia has used the same 4-2-3-1 in all four games and is unlikely to deviate now. Kevin De Bruyne has been the fulcrum, and Lukaku, coming off the bench as he rebuilds fitness, has scored twice in the tournament.

The head-to-head record favours Belgium. At the 2014 World Cup in Brazil, Belgium beat the USA 2-1 after extra time in the round of 16, a result that will not have been lost on Pochettino's squad. More damaging to American confidence will be the March 2026 friendly in Atlanta, just four months before this fixture, when Belgium won 5-2 at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium. In their only two meetings on record, Belgium have won both, scoring seven goals to the USA's three. Both games produced goals for each side, and the over 2.5 goals line landed in both.

Pochettino has favoured a 4-3-3 in two of his four World Cup matches and a 4-2-3-1 in one more, with a 3-5-2 also used. The return of Balogun gives him genuine attacking options from the front. With McKenzie doubtful, Richards and Ream are expected to continue at centre-back alongside Dest and Antonee Robinson at full-back. Garcia will name an unchanged XI for the fifth successive game if Debast is not passed fit.

USA: Freese; Freeman, Richards, Ream, A Robinson; McKennie, Adams; Tillman, Pulisic, Weah; Balogun

Belgium: Courtois; Castagne, Mechele, Theate, De Cuyper; Tielemans, Vanaken; Trossard, De Bruyne, Doku; Lukaku

USA v Belgium kicks off at 01:00 BST on Tuesday 8 July at Lumen Field, Seattle. The match is live on ITV and ITVX in the UK, with coverage beginning ahead of kick-off. BBC and BBC iPlayer also hold shared World Cup 2026 broadcast rights in the United Kingdom.