Udinese v AS Roma: Preview, predicted line-ups & Serie A tips

Udinese's last outing was a 0-0 draw at Parma on Wednesday night, a result that ended a run of six straight league defeats but did not bring a win. It was a point at the foot of the table against a side in the relegation places. Roma, meanwhile, went to Napoli last Saturday and drew 3-3, then beat Cagliari 4-2 at home on Tuesday. They arrive in Friuli third in Serie A and still without a defeat in the league. The hosts have scored twice at home all season, and the visitors average 2.3 goals per game away from the Stadio Olimpico. That contrast gives this fixture its shape before a ball is kicked.

Udinese have taken 5 points from 9 games, with one win, two draws and six defeats, and sit 17th. The form data shows a single win this season, 3-2 at Monza on 29 August, and the squad has scored 9 goals while conceding 18 (a goal difference of -9). The home record is the sharper concern: no wins in five, four defeats, 2 goals scored (0.4 per game) and 9 conceded (1.8 per game).

The underlying numbers offer little comfort. Over their last nine league games Udinese average 1.0 goals for against an expected-goals figure of 0.91 for, while the xG against is 2.16 per game. That suggests the 2.0 goals conceded per game is not simply bad luck. However, they do average 13.78 shots per game with 4 on target, so they are not short of attempts, only of quality in them.

Roma have 21 points from nine games (six wins, three draws), a goal difference of +15 and the third-best record in the division. The form data shows 2.56 goals per game on 2.12 xG for, with 0.89 conceded on 1.33 xG against, so there is some defensive overperformance in the numbers. Their record of five clean sheets in nine league games has carried them regardless.

The visitors are in Champions League qualification territory, four points behind Inter and Lazio on 25 and one clear of Como on 20. A win in Udine would keep that gap at four, while a slip would let the chasing pack close in. Roma have scored 7 of their 23 goals between the 76th and 90th minutes (30.43%), which suggests they tend to finish games strongly against tiring opponents.

Udinese's last nine league results read one win, two draws and six defeats, and the most recent four before the Parma draw were all losses, including 0-3 at home to Lecce and 0-2 to AC Milan. Roma's read six wins and three draws with no defeats, and the form data shows 23 goals for and 8 against. On results alone, Roma are clearly in better shape. The caution is in Roma's recent draws: they have failed to win three of their last five, with a 0-0 at Como, a 2-2 at home to Inter and the 3-3 at Napoli. Udinese's own draw at Parma, with a clean sheet, was only their second in nine league games.

Udinese are 17th on 5 points from 9 games, level on points with Fiorentina (18th) and Parma (19th), who occupy the relegation places on goal difference. Monza in 16th have 7 points, so the cushion above the drop is two points, and bottom club Venezia have 3. Roma are third on 21 points from 9 games, four behind joint leaders Inter and Lazio and one ahead of fourth-placed Como.

For Udinese a win would lift them to 8 points and above Sassuolo's mark of 8 only on tie-break, so it matters mostly as a first victory in two months and a way to stay clear of the bottom three. For Roma, three points would keep them within one win of the top and keep Como at arm's length.

The supplied H2H summary covers 10 meetings. Roma have won 7, Udinese 2 and 1 was drawn, with an average of 2.6 goals per game. Both teams scored in 4 of the 10 (40%), and 6 produced over 2.5 goals (60%). The most recent meeting was Udinese's 1-0 home win at the Friuli on 2 February 2026. Before that, Roma had won 2-0 at the Olimpico on 9 November 2025.

The pattern is lopsided but has some give. Roma won four of the last five, and three of those five finished with Udinese failing to score, which fits their current form of four failures to score in nine. However, Udinese's most recent win came at this ground, so the venue is not a lost cause. The goals markets lean towards over 2.5 on the 60% historical rate and Roma's 6 over-2.5 results in nine, though BTTS at 40% suggests the visitors may do most of the scoring.

The biggest gap is in goals. Roma average 2.56 per game over their last nine against Udinese's 1.0, and concede 0.89 to Udinese's 2.0. Expected goals tell the same story: 2.12 for and 1.33 against for Roma, 0.91 and 2.16 for Udinese. That means Roma's goal difference is not just a product of finishing luck.

The second gap is shot volume and quality. Roma average 18.67 shots with 6 on target, to Udinese's 13.78 and 4. Roma also win more corners, 5.89 per game for against 4.22, and concede only 3.11 while Udinese concede 4.44. Roma's possession figure of 56.9% against Udinese's 51% suggests the visitors should control the territory and force Udinese into a low block.

Kick-off at the Bluenergy Stadium is 5pm GMT on Saturday 31 October. DAZN holds the UK and Ireland Serie A rights for 2026-27, and seven matches in each round are available exclusively on DAZN. A UK broadcaster for this specific fixture has not been confirmed, and this page will be updated closer to kick-off.

The strongest angle in the data is the gap between Roma's away scoring and Udinese's home scoring. Roma average 2.3 goals per game on the road, and Udinese have managed 0.4 at home. That points to a Roma win with goals, with the 60% over 2.5 rate in the head-to-head record supporting the totals picks. The main risk is Udinese's single clean sheet in nine games cutting both ways, as it suggests Roma should score but not that the hosts cannot find one goal.